onewheeldave

42 minutes ago, Pettytom said:

23000 new cases today.

12000 new cases yesterday.

Notwithstanding the “data malfunction”, that’s a big leap. It wasn’t so long ago that people were mocking the idea that we could have 50 000 cases per day. It’s beginning to look very possible.

 

Worrying times.

Deaths currently at 33/day for the whole of the UK

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.176901153.522971448.1601853346-201961966.1585217610

Just now, Longcol said:

Or the coming wave of new covid cases - it's already happening in France  (Marseille) and Spain (Madrid). Is the UK going to be somehow exceptional?

This is going round in pointless circles. 

I'm going to focus on the actual deaths- my feeling is they won't get high. 

However, if, in a months time we're at a 1000 a day, then clearly, I was wrong.

4 minutes ago, butlers said:

The fact you put a smiley  does not speak well 

I didn't, you've [accidently, I hope] mixed 2 of my quotes the one with the smiley was a reply to this nasty bit of rudeness-

8 minutes ago, Dardandec said:

Go out, spread it about, nothing stopping you. If you want to act like a 3 year old do it. There are plenty of adults around to pick up the pieces for you. 

1 minute ago, butlers said:

Even in good years it feels we have stories the nhs is at breaking point during winter  so I hope we have  mild flu season

 

Sadly the NHS is likely to be at breaking point with the huge backlog of cases that went untreated during the lockdown.

1 minute ago, butlers said:

I would have thought some of the frail elderly discharged from hospital was entirely because it was certain that the wards were filling with Covid effected.

That would seem logical and if course it's only in last couple of months the testing has come anywhere near what's required

No, the COVID patients would mainly be in intensive care- most of the rest of the hospitals were empty.

1 minute ago, Dardandec said:

Go out, spread it about, nothing stopping you. If you want to act like a 3 year old do it. There are plenty of adults around to pick up the pieces for you. 

OK, will do

1 minute ago, Longcol said:

 

Where do you think covid patients were - Intensive Care - or where?

Do you think the patients denied access to cancer treatment that you know full well I'm talking about would have been treated in intensive care units? or, would if have been the none-intensive care parts of the hospitals- you know, the empty bits where the bored nurses were filming their dance routines?

3 minutes ago, butlers said:

Don't make me wander off and find it,I need a tea anyhow.

It would not. surprise me if there statistics relating to premature death increase  by percent of unemployment.A ball park.

The 80 s were big boys don't cry much to men's disavantage ,things are more open now ,more help and listening ears are available, lean on a friend

Its' true, the eighties where a different world. Can you imagine what those 'big boys' would have told the authorities to do back then if they were ordered to wear clothes on their face or stay locked up at home for weeks?

Just now, Longcol said:

Intensive care units were at breaking point. 

 

You sure like your myths....................................................

I said hospitals, not intensive care units! You sure like to misrepresent..................................................................................

2 minutes ago, Longcol said:

Go find the suicide stats then - doesn't matter if they were caused by unemployment or not.

I'm not interested in suicide stats from the eighties- it was forty years ago, society is very different now.

2 minutes ago, Dardandec said:

Ok fine we will play it your way.

 

Open everything up and pretend this never happened, no restrictions or local lockdowns or anything, back to normal yeah?

 

Person A- Mmmm, I'm sure I didn't have that lump the other day, I will call my doctors. Sorry we are closed as there are no GP's  available, one has died, one is on a ventilator and the other 2 are self isolating due to dispalying  covid symtoms. The 2 locums we us are also self isolating.

 

Mmmm, ok I will take myself of to A  & E, Hello is that abcd taxis? Yes where do you want to go? A & E,  yeah no problem there is a 6 hour wait though is that ok? 6 hours? yeah most of our drivers are off sick with covid. Oh ok i'll wait.

 

8 hours later at A & E. OMG its closed, Knock Knock on door. Why are you closed? limited access mate, we are on skeleton staff due to covid and have very limited beds and space.

 

Do you see where I am going with that? 

It sounds like a scene from the last lockdown when patients where denied access to medical care despite most of the hospitals being empty- waiting for the 'overwhelmed by COVID NHS' that never materialised.

1 minute ago, Longcol said:

No - that is only about 20,000 excess deaths.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31199-5/fulltext

20,000 is quite a lot.

3 minutes ago, butlers said:

You really want to cherry pick there, seems entirely fair to check numbers in last major recession,

Back then there was not the understanding of mental health issues we have now, I doubt that there would be any kind of accurate estimations of how suicides would be caused by unemployment.

1 minute ago, Longcol said:

So your basis for not accepting the statistics based on the death certificates are.............................

That COVID was put on the death certificates when they died of something else but just happened to have COVID at the same time.

1 minute ago, Longcol said:

 

 

And what did cause the excess deaths if not covid? The bogeyman?

I answered that already- killing the elderly by discharging other elderly with COVID into care homes might explain some or even most of it?

Just now, Longcol said:

So you disagree with the doctors who signed the death certificates. Your medical qualifications are.......................................

 

 

Yes I do. I often disagree with doctors. I have no medical qualifications.

1 minute ago, butlers said:

I think would hope my fellow mask zealots  will acknowledge it.

 

And yet they aren't?

4 minutes ago, butlers said:

Yup but next week and the week after the same number of heart attacks will happen, there no magic fix to that.

We have a highly transmissible virus about and by doing some behaviour changing we can limit deaths from 1000 plus a day to low 20s.

Seems a price well worth paying until hopefully we have vaccine, 

Not heart attacks- What do you think about the coming deaths from mass unemployment, economic devastation and mental illness?

2 minutes ago, Longcol said:

First let's establish what has happened. Thousands of excess deaths in April and May.

 

And we could look at excess deaths under a period of economic damage like under Thatcher in the 80's - 3 million unemployed. Can't recall anything like that number.

Just to clarify what should be obvious- I do not consider those figures in April and May to be relevant, as there is no reason to believe they correspond to deaths caused by COVID.

Neither, as I suspect you know full well, is looking at what happened in the 80's going to be relevant to deaths caused by unemployment now.

2 minutes ago, Dardandec said:

@onewheeldave. The 450 people who die everyday because of cancer, are they a public health risk to other people ie spreading it to other people? 

No, but they are 10 times the number currently dying from COVID.

deaths per day in the uk-

cancer 450

heart attacks 460

diabetes 71

that is just 3 conditions. 

I'm just putting the number of covid deaths [34] into context

1 minute ago, butlers said:

Like I said in the thread male suicides is at a 20 ? year high, I am very aware there's lots of people struggling a lot  ,it's going to be difficult to navigate the next few months it's lesser evil choices

Well it looks like no-one else is going to go near it-

What do you think about the mass unemployment, economic devastation and deaths from mental illness?

Why do you think none of the lockdown pushers on this thread are willing to answer this highly relevant question?

4 minutes ago, Pettytom said:

 

 

So, Dave, what do you want to see happen next?

I'd like to see you answer this-

13 minutes ago, onewheeldave said:

What about the mass unemployment, economic devastation and deaths from mental illness. Do you literally believe they aren't going to happen?

Just now, Pettytom said:

What do we do next?

Easy- you continue to push for more lockdown measures, I continue to push for less, as I am way more worried about the deaths from economic devastation, job losses, mental health issues, than those from COVID.

2 minutes ago, Longcol said:

How can the medical profession determine who was killed by covid?

How can we determine likely numbers of deaths from economic damage that are yet to happen?

1 minute ago, Pettytom said:

So. Here is what we know.

 

Deaths are low at the moment. But rising. 
 

The peak in the spring was well over 1000 deaths per day. 
 

Sone people don’t believe that. 
 

The same people think it was mostly “people who were going to die anyway”

 

Excess death data doesn’t support that.

 

Winter is coming.

 

The big question is “what do we do next?”

What about the mass unemployment, economic devastation and deaths from mental illness. Do you literally believe they aren't going to happen?

2 minutes ago, Longcol said:

Of your claimed 350 per day.

That was from the england.nhs.uk site- but, as I've mentioned several times- it does not include deaths in care homes.

1 minute ago, Longcol said:

So we're dealing in a few anecdotes now.............................................have you got 10/100/1,000/10,000?

 

In the absence of reasonably accurate stats for numbers killed by COVID it is impossible to say how many people were killed by COVID. Your stats of numbers who died with covid are of no use.

2 minutes ago, Longcol said:

Evidence.

You've previously said the evidence [stats for deaths caused by COVID] doesn't exist.

1 minute ago, Longcol said:

So give us your sources.

 

 

Multiple anecdotal accounts of people being registered as death by COVID when they died of other things.