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LIONS LAIR- FOR SALE SIGN......

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/leisure/article5854517.ece

 

To clear any rumours before they start!

 

Lions Lair currently has a for sale sign up. On the link above it explains why. Basically Punch Taverns that own the pub are in huge debt partially relating to the current world economic downturn. They are trying to sell the smaller of thier pubs to raise capital to repay some of their current debt (just £4.5 billion!)

 

On the upside we will continue to run Lions for the Sheffield scene as we have done for the last year. To be honest we don't think it is a very attractive proposal for anyone to buy as it still has the CPO hanging over its head, though while it has been delayed, will be enacted at some point in the next 2 or 3 years.

 

For now Lions is and will be trading as usual, open Tues-Thurs-Fri-Sat, from 5pm till 12am with the after parties from 3am till 6am EVERY Friday and Saturday.

 

Hope to see you all soon

 

Lions Lair

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4.5 billion.......its scary just THINKING about that figure......

 

Few interesting quotes for you......

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There are plenty of reasons to be negative. Punch’s own numbers predict only a mild downturn in revenues going forward. There simply isn’t the expectation of a dramatic downturn in the leisure sector.

 

Perhaps there should be, if historical precedent is anything to go by.

 

Punch isn’t best analysed as a equity. It’s best looked at as a fixed-income asset. It’s from that field that one term in particular, should be borrowed: cliff risk.

 

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The DSCR is basically a measure of an asset pool income’s ability to cover bondholder debt payments. A DSCR of 1.2, for example, would mean in that securitisation, income on assets was sufficient to cover 120% of debt payments.

 

The two relevant DSCR tests for Punch are known as the cash trap and the default covenant.

 

If a DSCR cash trap test is tripped, then that first “chord” between Punch holdco and the securitisation is severed: Punch is no longer allowed to take money out of the securitisation, except to pay tax. Instead, all income from assets within the securitisation stays within the securitisation.

 

But Punch still has “control” over the assets in the securitisation. It still controls the cash flow within the securitisation: it can reinvest the money, develop assets, etc. It remains connected through that second chord. If the DSCR default covenant is tripped though, that second chord is severed.

 

If both chords are cut, Punch has no control of the assets: indeed, they are no longer Punch’s assets in any sense of the word. The securitisations drift free of their former parent company.

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Anyone with experience of a serious downturn or recession though, might have to disagree. Anecdotal tales of pub landlords facing hard times are filtering through already. It’s perhaps a shame that there’s no public house price index. Were there, perhaps we’d be more worried about the fact that a roughly 30 per cent decline in income - notwithstanding a costly restructuring - would instantly knock Punch out of business.

 

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Even if the pub industry avoids a serious downturn, at best Punch will be a stagnant company held back by its sclerotic structuring and restrictive cash flow situation. No dividends for a while.

 

And if the industry does experience a significant downturn - and all historical evidence suggests it will - then Punch has immense cliff risk.

 

Cliff risk is normally talked about with CDOs, SIVs, CPDOs or other structured bond exotica. It’s the point at which a vehicle triggers a covenant that forces a mandatory unwind; oftentimes one that obliterates the equity stake. A vehicle can go from having a value, income and functioning balance sheet to being wiped out.

 

In Punch’s case, a basic read-across from the numbers would suggest a 40-50% fall in revenue could sever the company utterly from its assets. Even a 30 per cent fall might be enough to knockout a large part of them. Punch Taverns (A) is in the weakest position.

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Punch Taverns make all of their money from rent and beer sales, end of study, the first thing that any company should do when they gain massive profits from doing nothing at-all, is strike up a good working relationship with the people who do their earning for them, ie the landlords of the pubs. Punch have failed this in a big way. Punch Taverns sre an extremely exploitative business in the process of being found out, and they are in serious trouble, firstly, they claim that 13% of their estate is closed, this is complete nonesense, the true figures are actually horrifying, and a great number of their outlets that are open are so on a tenancy at will basis, that means rent free almost, earning them nothing, so what does this mean? well basically there are several guns pointing at Punch and either one of them can knock them straight out of busines, the re-investigation into the pubco model in November has great potenetial to strike straight at the heart of their only source of income, quite simply, the reccomendations made in 2004 have not been adhered to and quite frankly have been abused, the beer tie is abused to a ridiculous level by them and rents are far too expensive, any legaslitive alterations to this abuse will send share value tumbling and restrict their earning potential, and that's where it gets interesting, Punch Taverns whole empire is built on securitised debt, 4.6billion to be exact, once their earnings drop low enough they will trgger a dscr ( debt services cover ratio ) cash test trigger and all of their assets will simply be severed, even the share holders will be left high and dry, as all of their once owned assets will belong to the owners of the debt, the share holders will own nothing more than a stake in a holding

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Hi all,

 

Just a heads up (although slightly off subject) local band 'Now Then Now Then' will be doing a 15min slot at gay pride london 2009 this year.

(also available for local gigs)

And are playing the moorfoot tavern tonight fri 13th march (free entry)

so support a local band and give them a big cheer if your in london on the 25th july Trafalgar square.

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Is anyone else as bored with the gay scene at the moment as I am ? Granted there are a few nice friendly places but later on in the evening it seems to just revolve around drinking as much as possible and bopping away to very loud music from Lady Gaga and Kanye West till spilling out of the clubs at 4 or 6 am. Whatabout organising other initiatives for gay people to meet in a safe spalce - how about a gay coffee shop, gay bookclub, gay arts forum with gallery visits etc, gay bridge/cards night? gay dining group (how did that ever go I never went), gay walking in derbyshire, gay cinema or theatre visits, gay pride and arts events (well Tyranna has got that one in hand) , and so on and son I am sure there are other events that people can think of too and I suppose its up to us to organise them - I guess its starting to sound like those other straight social groups that are in operation but hey there seems to be no gay equivalent?

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