The Recession Megathread

[cruxtilIdie]

The media seem to be making this out worse than it is. The real fear is that companies can use the credit crunch to get rid of people even if the company is not using money. Companies should be forced to donate any extra profits from job losses to the government or even better charity.

 

They and we do this in the form of taxes.

[Tricky]

No it was this chap here, the full article is in the Guardian of today. He does predict a bad future, but not the disaster others are predicting.

 

It is an interesting read, it seems easy in hindsight to predict it, I'm just amazed so many got it so badly wrong (and not just this country).

 

Vested interest forming media opinion and too much apathy, amongst those that were concerned, to do anything or even debate it. Search 'recession' in thread titles on here; there's one from years and years ago that was pretty prescient, one from me a year ago that got 20 or so people replying and one from Jabbs 9 months ago that got even fewer. In fact, a lot of the economics debating took place on the property threads but it was therefore limited in terms of what was discussed and who read it.

 

But you're right, it was easy to predict if you ignored what the media was saying; the media played a huge part in making it much harder to work out what was going on and that's why people who blame the media for exacerbating the downturn could not possibly be more wrong.

[Tricky]

In short what is the doomsday scenario that is being predicted by some?

 

What are good alternative media sites to read up on what is happening with the financial crisis, bearing in mind that I find a lot of the threads on House Price Crash a bit heavy going?

let's see what happened last time.

 

The Great Depression was a worldwide economic downturn starting in most places in 1929 and ending at different times in the 1930s or early 1940s for different countries. It was the largest and most important economic depression in modern history, and is used in the 21st century as an example of how far the world's economy can fall.[1] The Great Depression originated in the United States; historians most often use as a starting date the stock market crash on October 29, 1929, known as Black Tuesday. The end of the depression in the U.S is associated with the onset of the war economy of World War II, beginning around 1939.[2]

 

The depression had devastating effects in virtually every country, rich or poor. International trade plunged by half to two-thirds, as did personal income, tax revenue, prices and profits. Cities all around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Farming and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by roughly 60 percent.[3][4][5] Facing plummeting demand with few alternate sources of jobs, areas dependent on primary sector industries such as farming, mining and logging suffered the most.[6] However, even shortly after the Wall Street Crash of 1929, optimism persisted; John D. Rockefeller said that "These are days when many are discouraged. In the 93 years of my life, depressions have come and gone. Prosperity has always returned and will again."[7]

 

The Great Depression ended at different times in different countries; for subsequent history see Home front during World War II. The majority of countries set up relief programs, and most underwent some sort of political upheaval, pushing them to the left or right. In some states, the desperate citizens turned toward nationalist demagogues—the most infamous being Adolf Hitler—setting the stage for World War II in 1939.

[cruxtilIdie]

We now have British workers going on strike due to "foreign" workers from Italy coming into the UK to build a plant on Humberside.

 

Gordon Brown pontificates about British jobs for British workers while a Labour MP says it is like a red rag to a bull. How do they keep a straight face when they have handed over 80% of our law making to Europe, tried their hardest to get us into the Euro and signed up to a European Constitution after promising a referendum.

 

Could this be the start of Labour's 1984?

[Longcol]

The IMF now projects the UK, which recently entered recession, will see its economy shrink by 2.8% next year, the worst contraction among advanced nations.

 

 

Well shrinking by 2.8% seems pretty mild by the standards of the great depression.

[ChrisTodd]

Large companies will always cut staff numbers, even in good times.

 

Once a large company makes a high profit they need to maintain it.

 

This is the first recession I can remember where small businesses are cutting staff numbers as well.

 

14 million people are employed by small businesses.

 

We now need he Government to help small businesses.

 

For many small businesses £5,000 to £10,000 would keep a lot going for the next year.

[marshlad]

Official figures published today say that unemployment upto December 2008 is 1.97 million, but in reality this above 2 million when the people who have lost their jobs since then are added to this, plus there is the 2 - 3 million on incapcity benefit who I think should be included in the figures because the majority are swinging the lead.

[Grandad.Malky]

plus there is the 2 - 3 million on incapcity benefit who I think should be included in the figures because the majority are swinging the lead.

 

Lets call a spade a spade but are you ready for the backlash.

[SHYTOT]

Large companies will always cut staff numbers, even in good times.

 

Once a large company makes a high profit they need to maintain it.

 

This is the first recession I can remember where small businesses are cutting staff numbers as well.

 

14 million people are employed by small businesses.

 

We now need he Government to help small businesses.

 

For many small businesses £5,000 to £10,000 would keep a lot going for the next year.

 

It goes way beyond that. I retired several years ago. However to pass the time I started a small one man business. I regulate my turnover to the VAT threshold. To put it simply I could turn over far more, and employ staff to help. However if I did that I would have to pay VAT on my entire turnover as well as making 3 times the paperwork. Put simply, as I don't need the money there is absolutely no incientive to expand. Indeed the incentive not too is very great.

I just wonder how many other businesses arrive at the same point and say "enough".

[Diesel Girl]

The media is to blame for a lot of the UK's recession. They stir trouble up and frighten people into not spending their money, especially the BBC.