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The Recession Megathread


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Unemployment is now over 2 million, I know the figures published today say it is under 2 million but they only go up to November and thats not including 2 million people on incapacity benefit the majority of which are swinging the lead, so it is probably nearer 4 million. This is worse than under Thatcher!!

 

I think you will find it is even worse than that. There are another couple of factors that are hiding the real situation.

 

1 Much of industry has chosen to work short hours in a bid to delay job losses. Some motor manufactures have stopped production for several months, and these shut down periods are being extended. No figures exist for how many jobs this short time working would equate too.

 

2 Currently quite a few people are able to pick up jobs vacatedby Poles, Latvians and other migrant workers who are flooding home in their droves. This alone has reduced the headline unemployment figures by around 200,000.

 

Last night the Obama inaugaration made it a good day to bury bad news. It was the Day that the EU economic forcasts were released and they further downgraded Britain growth forcast for 2009 to -2.8%. At the same time forcasters were revising 2010 unemployment in the UK to 3.3/3.4 million.

 

Happy days.

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I think you will find it is even worse than that. There are another couple of factors that are hiding the real situation.

 

 

2 Currently quite a few people are able to pick up jobs vacatedby Poles, Latvians and other migrant workers who are flooding home in their droves. This alone has reduced the headline unemployment figures by around 200,000.

 

 

Can't see how point 2 is hiding the situation. People have got jobs vacated by poles, latvians etc. So they aren't unemployed.

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Found out from a colleague today that the Government anouncement to help people back into work after 6 months unemployment has been released 4 weeks early.

 

The job centres and agencies dont know how to access the funding yet or who can access it.

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I find the latest report from the ONS quite odd, apparently we have more people unemployed and claiming JSA (nobody disagrees with that) but what is odd is that we have fewer people of working-age classed as inactive. How can this be?

 

Also a bit surprising that we have more people in employment now than we did this time last year.

 

There has been a fall in both the number of people in employment and the employment rate. The number of unemployed people, the unemployment rate and the claimant count have all increased. The number of inactive people of working age and the inactivity rate have fallen. The number of vacancies has fallen. Growth in average earnings including bonuses has fallen but earnings growth excluding bonuses is unchanged.

 

The employment rate for people of working age was 74.2 per cent for the three months to November 2008, down 0.2 from the previous quarter and down 0.5 over the year. The number of people in employment for the three months to November 2008 was 29.39 million, down 26,000 over the quarter but up 25,000 over the year. While there has been a fall over the quarter of 89,000 people in full-time employment, the number of people in part-time employment has increased by 63,000.

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I find the latest report from the ONS quite odd, apparently we have more people unemployed and claiming JSA (nobody disagrees with that) but what is odd is that we have fewer people of working-age classed as inactive. How can this be?

 

Also a bit surprising that we have more people in employment now than we did this time last year.

 

There has been a fall in both the number of people in employment and the employment rate. The number of unemployed people, the unemployment rate and the claimant count have all increased. The number of inactive people of working age and the inactivity rate have fallen. The number of vacancies has fallen. Growth in average earnings including bonuses has fallen but earnings growth excluding bonuses is unchanged.

 

The employment rate for people of working age was 74.2 per cent for the three months to November 2008, down 0.2 from the previous quarter and down 0.5 over the year. The number of people in employment for the three months to November 2008 was 29.39 million, down 26,000 over the quarter but up 25,000 over the year. While there has been a fall over the quarter of 89,000 people in full-time employment, the number of people in part-time employment has increased by 63,000.

 

I could have sworn it was nearly the end of January 2009 right now and people like the BBC who don't have an axe to grind seem to think that employment is down. It strikes me as pretty obvious as 200,000 migrant workers have returned home and around 200,000 British citizens have recently lost their jobs as well.

 

Perhaps when quoting figures we should be a little more up to date.

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I could have sworn it was nearly the end of January 2009 right now and people like the BBC who don't have an axe to grind seem to think that employment is down. It strikes me as pretty obvious as 200,000 migrant workers have returned home and around 200,000 British citizens have recently lost their jobs as well.

 

Perhaps when quoting figures we should be a little more up to date.

 

***************

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I could have sworn it was nearly the end of January 2009 right now and people like the BBC who don't have an axe to grind seem to think that employment is down. It strikes me as pretty obvious as 200,000 migrant workers have returned home and around 200,000 British citizens have recently lost their jobs as well.

 

Perhaps when quoting figures we should be a little more up to date.

 

Point is please!

 

The figures show unemployment is getting worse, they also show that when taken that things were actually better than the same time last year.

 

Mind you, as we are both so concerned about the unemployed, perhaps you'll join me in hoping that we never get to the position we had under the Tories.

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Point is please!

 

This was from the latest release of Data from the ONS, it recognises that unemployment is increasing but it also shows that the situation (as of the date shown) was actually better than the same time last year.

 

What is patently obvious is that the situation is nowhere near as bad as it was under the Tories, in fact I'd like to hazard a guess that during all the period they were in power they never had the current levels of employment, let's both hope we don't go back to those days then.

 

The point is pretty obvious. People who are out of work now are looking for a job now, and not 3 months ago. As the figures date from before the job losses really got into gear they are history. Woolworths has closed as have numerous other companies and much of the motor industry is closed (The workers in the motor industry won't appear in the unemployment statistics).

 

Furthermore the recession has not peaked yet and predictions are for 3.3/3.4 million umemployed when it does.

 

Regarding comparison with the recession under the Tories; under the tories we didn't face a £4 trillion debt to pay off.

 

It is perhaps true that a few months ago there were more people in work than in 1997. It is rather obvious when the countries population is 6 million higher than it was in 1997.

 

Now if you would like to hand over to Titannic we can move on.

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Point is please!

 

The figures show unemployment is getting worse, they also show that when taken that things were actually better than the same time last year.

 

Mind you, as we are both so concerned about the unemployed, perhaps you'll join me in hoping that we never get to the position we had under the Tories.

 

Oh what happened there did you get your identities mixed up?

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