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The Recession Megathread


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Dave650

 

If we carry on has we have done for the past 30 years, then yes we are doomed.

 

However, if the focus of job creation changes from "everyone working for the state", to actual wealth creation then this recession could be the best thing ever (obviously not for people suffering).

 

Who knows, our education system could go back to being a system of learning, rather than a system of manipulating stats

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Dave650

 

If we carry on has we have done for the past 30 years, then yes we are doomed.

 

However, if the focus of job creation changes from "everyone working for the state", to actual wealth creation then this recession could be the best thing ever (obviously not for people suffering).

 

Who knows, our education system could go back to being a system of learning, rather than a system of manipulating stats

 

What do you reckon the chances of that are?

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Sectors/jobs which might be safe®...hmmmm, some ideas:

 

Cheaper retail outlets like Primark, New Look, etc - you can expect places like Top Shop to stop selling 'Kate Moss' type lines for silly prices and go back to cheap fashions. Places like Lidl, Tesco etc. Whereas Waitrose and M&S may suffer a bit. Cheap dept stores like TJs. Amazon. We might even see the return of those 'scoop and save' shops!

 

Food outlets selling cheap comfort foods like Greggs and chippies, as people usually turn to that sort of thing for a treat when they cannot afford to buy new shoes and so on. Plus manufacturers of cheap grub.

 

Public transport as more people try to save by not driving everywhere or simply have no choice but to sell their cars. Outdoor shops as people buy practical waterproofs and start trying out camping and hiking instead of renting cottages or paying for expensive gyms.

 

Second hand stores and loan sharks, obviously, will do well. :o

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The public sector is safe? Riiiight...

 

The Civil Service are still laying off staff and will probably carry on - programmes will be cut back as there is less in the pot and less staff are needed.

 

Local councils are already cutting back - Nottingham have just cut a couple of hundred posts.

 

The education sector already know there will be a funding crisis and are preparing for cutbacks in teachers and lecturers. As less people will have jobs there will also be the inevitable child care closures too.

 

You can also expect to see cutbacks in the NHS no doubt, especially in office staff.

 

The BIG issue that any future Govt will have to face is public sector pensions which are paid for out of taxation, they are not in a fund. Basically the potential bill is cripplingly huge and most likely couldn't have been borne when the economy was growing. Now? No chance. Expect massive public sector disruption when the inevitable happens.

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The BIG issue that any future Govt will have to face is public sector pensions which are paid for out of taxation, they are not in a fund. Basically the potential bill is cripplingly huge and most likely couldn't have been borne when the economy was growing. Now? No chance. Expect massive public sector disruption when the inevitable happens.

 

Very true indeed. It is ironic that millions in the private sector are loosing their pensions and still have to contribute vast sums to top up the pension funds of people in the public sector.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7846122.stm

 

Final salary schemes 'face axe'

 

The past decade has seen a huge wave of pension closures

A quarter of major private sector firms expect to close their final salary pension schemes to existing members in the next few years, a survey suggests.

 

 

 

 

 

I would think that now would be a good time to tackle the public sector pension time bomb. To carry on ignoring it won't make it go away.

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The BIG issue that any future Govt will have to face is public sector pensions which are paid for out of taxation, they are not in a fund. Basically the potential bill is cripplingly huge and most likely couldn't have been borne when the economy was growing. Now? No chance. Expect massive public sector disruption when the inevitable happens.

 

I suspect that the worst that will happen is the final salary schemes will be closed to new entrants as they already are in some Depts and Agencies I believe? And retirement ages may be raised. The rank and file actually receive paltry sums, it's the senior Whitehall mandarins who get the big pensions, and they're the ones who can bend the ear of the Government.

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...I would think that now would be a good time to tackle the public sector pension time bomb. To carry on ignoring it won't make it go away.

 

Now you're just being silly. If you ignore it, you might get re-elected.

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Now you're just being silly. If you ignore it, you might get re-elected.

 

 

Do you really think so?

Perhaps it is time for GB to realise he is a dead man walking and to do one decent act as Prime Minister. Sorting public sector pensions could be the only positive contribution to come from his time at the helm.

 

I just downloaded the latest opinion polls of peoples voting intensions.

 

 

 

 

Survey End Date CON %) LAB(%) LDEM(%) Con Lead

 

 

Ipsos-MORI/ 2009-01-18 44 30 17 14

 

YouGov/Sunday Times 2009-01-16 45 32 14 13

ComRes/Independent on Sunday 2009-01-15 41 32 15 9

 

Populus/Times 2009-01-11 43 33 15 10

 

YouGov/The Sun 2009-01-08 41 34 15 7

 

 

 

 

That didn't work out very well but you can work it out I hope. If you can't make it out the Tories lead in the polls has increased from 7% on Jan 8th to 14% on Jan 18th. I wonder why that was???

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