Election debate..

[Unregistered]

 

Im voting Tory, and I dont mind admiting it.

 

Somebody has to vote Nasty Party - The stinking rich will love you.

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[bagger]

Same old Labour Party that we've had for 13 years.

Same old Nasty Party that we booted out in 1997.

 

The country needs a fresh approach.

The country needs a political earthquake.

 

Prime Minister Nick Clegg and the LibDems offer the best

future for every man, every woman and every child

in this country.

 

Brown and Cameron are both sinister bullies and should

not be trusted with our future.

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Well said. Agree with every word.

[Unregistered]

 

Well said. Agree with every word.

 

Thanks.

 

 

I agree with Nick.

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[Kingmaker2]

Same old Labour Party that we've had for 13 years.

Same old Nasty Party that we booted out in 1997.

 

The country needs a fresh approach.

The country needs a political earthquake.

 

Prime Minister Nick Clegg and the LibDems offer the best

future for every man, every woman and every child

in this country.

 

Brown and Cameron are both sinister bullies and should

not be trusted with our future.

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.

 

Unregistered I've asked before in another thread, but you might have miss it,

 

but how many seats do you think the LibDems will get:?:

[anarchist]

So here is the final verdict on the debate.

 

http://www.uknetguide.co.uk/Latest-News/David-Cameron-scores-final-debate-opinion-poll-clean-sweep-19752897.html

 

 

David Cameron was the comfortable winner of the third and final live televised general election debate, a raft of polls conducted immediately after the BBC1 broadcast have suggested.

 

During the debate, centring on the economy and filmed in Birmingham, the three leaders clashed repeatedly on issues surrounding immigration especially.

 

All but one of the instant polls put Mr Cameron in first place followed by Nick Clegg. Gordon Brown was consistently last apart from in a poll for the Guardian/ICM in which he came two points ahead of Mr Clegg.

 

The prime minister emerged in first place in only one poll, a live tracking, non-scientific, non-weighted poll for Channel 4 News.

Final debate opinion poll results

 

Times/Populus:

David Cameron: 38 per cent

Nick Clegg: 38 per cent

Gordon Brown: 25 per cent

- - - - - - - - -

ITV/ComRes:

David Cameron: 35 per cent

Nick Clegg: 33 per cent

Gordon Brown: 26 per cent

- - - - - - - - -

Sun/YouGov:

David Cameron: 41 per cent

Nick Clegg: 32 per cent

Gordon Brown: 25 per cent

- - - - - - - - -

Angus Reid:

David Cameron: 37 per cent

Nick Clegg: 29 per cent

Gordon Brown: 23 per cent

- - - - - - - - -

Guardian/ICM:

David Cameron: 35 per cent

Gordon Brown: 29 per cent

Nick Clegg: 27 per cent

- - - - - - - - -

Channel 4 (live):

Gordon Brown: 44 per cent

Nick Clegg: 42 per cent

David Cameron: 13 per cent

30 April 2010, 13:00

[anarchist]

Well said. Agree with every word.

 

To me the best outcome would be a coalition between the Lib/Dems and Tories where Clegg became Prime Minister.

[esme]

sadly I agree with Kingmaker2 on this, because the constituency system is biased, in that it favours parties who have lots of supporters grouped in small areas as opposed to lots of supporters spread over the entire country, LD are going to need a huge number of votes, many more than their competitors, just to get anywhere near the same number of seats as the two "main" parties

 

please note they are only the "main" parties because of the constituency system and the first past the post voting method

 

small wonder the two "main" parties want to keep the voting system pretty much as is, and please don't tell me about the alternative vote system, because that still favours the two "main" parties

 

however this shouldn't stop you trying, if you want to vote LD then do so, if enough follow your line then we might get a miracle

 

if people vote tactically then we get five more years of same old "put up, shut up, do as your told, I'm an MP, I'm in charge, I don't care what you think, I'm here until I decide to leave" and no possibility of a fairer voting system and MP's who work for and respond to the electorate

 

vote for who you believe in, and you might get a miracle

[Kingmaker2]

To me the best outcome would be a coalition between the Lib/Dems and Tories where Clegg became Prime Minister.

 

That won't happen, Clegg being leader of any coalition that is.

 

I got the sense last night, that even though it is his right to have first crack at forming a coalition government in event that the Conservatives get more seats but no majority, Gordon Brown won't attempt to make any coalition, instead he will give way to Cameron.

[anarchist]

That won't happen, Clegg being leader of any coalition that is.

 

I got the sense last night, that even though it is his right to have first crack at forming a coalition government in event that the Conservatives get more seats but no majority, Gordon Brown won't attempt to make any coalition, instead he will give way to Cameron.

 

I keep hearing you say this, but that doesn't make you right. I have seen other people putting forward this argument, and with the bookies quoting Clegg at 7/1 obviously they are taking the possibility seriously.

 

No one can form a coalition without the consent of another party. So Labour, L/D or Conservative will have to agree terms with one of the other parties. So assuming things stay as they appear in the polls we will have something like this on May 7th...

 

Tory 295 seats (35% of the vote)

Labour 235 seat (25% of the vote)

L/D 85 seats (33% of the vote)

Others 35 seats. (7% of the vote)

 

So you imagine the first thing is Cameron goes to Clegg and says how about supporting me as PM, to which Clegg says on your bike. Brown tries and gets a similar response. (Clegg has already said as much)

 

All of a sudden the big parties have a dilema, because Brown won't fall in behind Cameron as PM and Cameron won't fall in behind Brown. So in those circumstances where do they go?

 

Does Labour form a coalition with the Lib/Dems in which Clegg becomes PM or do they risk losing power all together? And of course faced with such a senario would the Tories come to Clegg's party to avoid another 5 years in the wilderness?

 

Of course both Labour and the Conservatives might refuse to play ball, but all that would do would be to force another election by which time the situation might change and either could face an electoral catastrophe.

 

There is however one other factor which would put Clegg in Downing Street. Mervyn King said the other night that whoever formed the next government would have to implement such unpalatable cuts and taxes that they would face a generation in opposition. In the circumstance it might suit Cameron very nicely to allow Clegg to be a figurehead and take the flak, looking to emerge in 5 years as leader of an electable party.

[Kingmaker2]

I keep hearing you say this, but that doesn't make you right. I have seen other people putting forward this argument, and with the bookies quoting Clegg at 7/1 obviously they are taking the possibility seriously.

 

So you imagine the first thing is Cameron goes to Clegg and says how about supporting me as PM, to which Clegg says on your bike. Brown tries and gets a similar response. (Clegg has already said as much)

 

All of a sudden the big parties have a dilema, because Brown won't fall in behind Cameron as PM and Cameron won't fall in behind Brown. So in those circumstances where do they go?

 

Does Labour form a coalition with the Lib/Dems in which Clegg becomes PM or do they risk losing power all together? And of course faced with such a senario would the Tories come to Clegg's party to avoid another 5 years in the wilderness?

 

Well like I keep saying 7-1 in 3 horse race are pretty big, although at 7-1 isn't a value bet.

Go to Bet Fair and they are offering significantly better odds of 40/1

 

Now the way the polls are at the moment it looks like 2 things might occur.

 

a) The Conservatives squeeze through and get a small majority.

 

b) Or Conservatives get more seats but no majority.

 

If scenario a) happens then Cameron won't need Clegg.

 

If scenario b)happens then I think neither Brown or Labour will seek to form a coalition.

 

It depends on how far he is away from a majority, but Cameron may be close enough not to need a coalition with Clegg, but can pick up alliances elsewhere.

 

But let's assume Cameron seeks a coalition with Clegg, it's not likely that Clegg will turn it down, or insist that he would be the PM, bearing in mind that the Lib Dems are never going to get enough seats unless they have electoral change.

 

So again Clegg is not likely to be able hold any of the 2 parties to ransom over the top job.

 

40/1 sounds about right.