Is anyone a little fed up of being told the lib dems cannot possibly win ?

[DragonofAna]

Nick gets five votes from my household which was previously Labour.

 

Are you sure you want to admit something like that on here?

 

The libs had better not get in or we are all in deeper - brown smelly stuff.

[esme]

Could our system be described as a form of gerrymandering ?

This is a serious question.

 

not really gerrymandering refers to the changing of a constituency boundary with the intention of concentrating support for a particular party

 

the name arises from the salamander like shape on the map that one particular constituency had when the practice was first noticed, in fact thats probably why it was noticed

 

now we have an independent group called the boundaries commission, when they adjust a boundary they take great pains to try and make sure that if the preceding election were run again then all the parties that stood then would get roughly the same proportion of votes as they did before

 

it's more of a postcode lottery if you happen to support one party but move to a constituency that has a large amount of support for another party then your vote is effectively drowned out

 

You don't think the reason why everyone says they will not get in is because their policies are rubbish; the leader of the lib-dems is useless; and no-one really likes them?

 

Just asking.

 

I'm sure those are reasons that some people are saying, whether they are true or not is another question, whay I think is between me and the ballot box

 

but the fact remains that even with a majority of the vote they still won't gain enough seats to break even with the other parties never mind win, they would need a huge swing in the vote just to break even

 

but you never know there may be a huge swing, it's highly unlikely but it might happen

[phoebe23]

Sometimes when you're told you cant do / have something, it makes people all the more determined to have it!!!!!!!!!!!!

[esme]

Sometimes when you're told you cant do / have something, it makes people all the more determined to have it!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

and that's the sort of thinking that gets miracles

[nouxnoux]

They won't be elected because their policies are absolutely rubbish and Nick Clegg is a lightweight not Prime Minister material.

[harvey19]

Thankyou Esme for the information regarding gerrymandering. Nearly everyone I have spoken to is in support of the Liberal Democrats this time round and Nick Clegg is like a breath of fresh air. Their intention to raise the tax threshold to £10,000 seems an excellent, straightforward and easy to administer system.

[Rupert_Baehr]

...

 

so for anyone who doesn't know the reason why the Lib Dems have very little chance of winning the election, here it is

 

we have a "first past the post" election system based on geographic areas called constituencies

 

that's it, that's the reason...

 

it's not lack of support, it's not because they aren't very good it's not because Nick Clegg dresses to a particular side, it's because we have "first past the post" and constituencies

 

this is basically two reasons rolled into one so I'll tackle each separately

 

please note this is extremely simplified, and I apologise for teaching grandma to suck eggs for those with superior knowledge

 

"first past the post" means is that if whoever comes first gets just one more vote than who comes second then then everyone who voted for the person coming second wasted their time, their votes don't count, they may as well have stayed at home, so anything up to just under half the votes cast can be ignored

 

so if you have a hundred voters and fifty one vote for one thing then the other forty nine have to have it too, their wishes don't count

 

the constituency is a bit trickier, if you have say ten million supporters and they are bunched together in groups, and those groups happen to fit inside different constituencies, then those groups wield a lot of votes within those constituencies

 

and because it's concentrated in a constituency it can win that seat easily with a first past the post system, both the Labour and Conservative party have won lots of constituencies with this as they have large groups of support bunched in individual constituencies with little overlap

 

...

 

That's not a very clear explanation, Esmé. - Well, not clear to me, anyway.

 

As you say, you have a 'first past the post' system. That system applies to everybody. If Labour get one more vote than the party in second place, they win the seat. If the Conservatives get one more vote than the party in second place, then they win the seat. But if the Liberals get one more vote than the party in second place then they win the seat. - Same rules for everybody.

 

There is no rule which says that the Liberals (or anybody else for that matter) are not permitted to get more votes than the party in second place in every constituency. Were they to do so, then they would win every seat.

 

'First past the Post' is neither 'fair' nor 'unfair'. It's simply the way things are done and provided it applies equally to everybody I don't see how you can say one or more parties are at an advantage over the others. - If you want to win a seat all you have to do is to persuade the electorate to vote for you.

 

The second reason you give is the constituency system. Unfortunately, the people elected are Members of Parliament, not the representatives of the People and on May 7th they will probably begin to act as such.

 

Many people labour under the mis-apprehension that 'their'MP is there to represent them.

 

If you don't have constituencies, you will ruin that for them! (Next thing, you'll be telling them that the Easter Bunny doesn't exist. )

 

If you simply allocate MPs to each party according to the proportion of the overall vote they achieve, how will that work?

 

For instance. Let's say LAbour get 15% of the popular vote, the Conservatives get 40% and the Liberals get 45%.

 

Labour would be entitled (presumably) to 15% of the MPs, the Tories would be entitled to 40% and the Liberals 45%.

 

How do you decide who gets what?

 

I am (at the moment) in the Constituency of 'Brightside' (AFAIK.) There's little doubt who will be elected, but if there was a proportional representation system, could the electorate of Brightside be told: "Although you voted for Mr B, we're giving you Ms L as your MP?"

 

I suspect that wouldn't go down very well, but if you do adopt a system of proportional representation (as opposed to 'First Past the Post') then the people in some constituencies are very likely to have an MP foisted upon them who they did not elect, who did not bother to canvass for their votes, who may know little or nothing about the area, the people, their wants, needs and aspirations and who may have little interest in them either.

 

How is that an improvement?

 

As I mentioned in another post some time ago, my MEP was a guy called 'Errol' (who turned out to be a lady called 'Eryl') who resigned in frustration because she didn't know who she was supposed to be representing, she didn't know the area and the people didn't know her either.

 

The last time I lived in England, I knew my MP. I knew where she lived and I knew how to get in contact with her. On those (admittedly rare) occasions I needed to contact her I did so.

 

Had I said, for instance, "We have a serious problem with the lack of public transport, I can only get a bus to Norwich on the 1st and 3rd Saturday of every month and although I can get a bus into the local market town every day, I can't get one back again the same day" then she would, no doubt, have been very sympathetic.

 

Had I said that to a proportionally-elected MP then (s)he might well have said: "What country is Norwich in?"

 

If somebody living in Sheffield, for example, had a 'proportionally elected MP (or a small share of a proportionally elected MP who lived in Cornwall, how much help, sympathy and knowledge could the Sheffield resident expect to get from the furriner in the West Country?

[Michael_W]

A lot of traditional Labour voters are considering voting for the Lib Dems, I smell change !

[Weazel2006]

What you have here is a pretty unique election, 3 parties all up for a slice of the pie, 2 generations maybe 3 who have been bummed by the top 2 parties, even if the lib dems don't make the grade this time, their influence and possibilities for the next election are greately increased.

 

I know where my vote is going though...

[phoebe23]

and that's the sort of thinking that gets miracles

yes you have to believe in miracles for a fairytale future