Latest poll puts Lib Dems in third place

[jongo]

Just heard on the radio that the Lib Dems have gone down 4 points and are now wallowing in third place.

[Greybeard]

It will be this one ?

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7665336/General-Election-2010-Poll-blow-for-Nick-Clegg-as-voters-think-twice.html

[Kingmaker2]

Just heard on the radio that the Lib Dems have gone down 4 points and are now wallowing in third place.

 

That's the ICM poll.

 

Con 36%

Lab 29%

Lib Dem 27%

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7665336/General-Election-2010-Poll-blow-for-Nick-Clegg-as-voters-think-twice.html

 

Of course one poll in isolation may not be too accurate.

 

However if it is a true indicator that voters may be thinking twice about voting Lib Dems, that could be a number of reasons.

 

It could be that Nick Clegg hasn't quite looked the bullet proof politician that everyone adores, a number of recent news clips on tv have seen him come under fire from members of the public, and he does looked a little fazed at times, perhaps no more or less fazed than Cameron or Brown, but none the less, not quite untouchable as he first seemed to look on the first tv debate.

 

And let's face it, it is the new tv debate format that has propelled the Lib Dems out of relative obscutity not necessarily Nick Clegg himself.

 

There is also the chance that as the election draws near more people are educating themselves with what a hung parliament actually means.

And perhaps they are slowly realising that a Conservative "win" with no overall majority could theoretically leave Brown in power .

[altus]

That's the ICM poll.

 

Con 36%

Lab 29%

Lib Dem 27%

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7665336/General-Election-2010-Poll-blow-for-Nick-Clegg-as-voters-think-twice.html

 

Of course one poll in isolation may not be too accurate.

 

However if it is a true indicator that voters may be thinking twice about voting Lib Dems, that could be a number of reasons.

 

It could be that Nick Clegg hasn't quite looked the bullet proof politician that everyone adores, a number of recent news clips on tv have seen him come under fire from members of the public, and he does looked a little fazed at times, perhaps no more or less fazed than Cameron or Brown, but none the less, not quite untouchable as he first seemed to look on the first tv debate.

 

And let's face it, it is the new tv debate format that has propelled the Lib Dems out of relative obscutity not necessarily Nick Clegg himself.

 

There is also the chance that as the election draws near more people are educating themselves with what a hung parliament actually means.

And perhaps they are slowly realising that a Conservative "win" with no overall majority could theoretically leave Brown in power .

The Conservative/Labour supporting press and the parties own negative publicity teams have also gone from ignoring the Lib Dems to focussing their main attacks on them.

[Guest sibon]

Most opinion polls admit to an error of +/- 3%. That means that they can be up to 6% out when calculating the difference between parties. The latest polls all seem to indicate that Labour and the Lib Dems are neck and neck, with the Tories out in front by between 7% and 10%.

 

The interesting factor is how the votes are likely to be spread. If the Lib Dems get a uniform 25% across the country, not much will change. If people vote tactically, we might see a very unusual parliament with all three parties having quite a large number of MPs.

 

It will be interesting to see how Brown and Cameron handle that.

[Kingmaker2]

The Conservative/Labour supporting press and the parties own negative publicity teams have also gone from ignoring the Lib Dems to focussing their main attacks on them.

 

Perhaps, but then again negative press doesn't always have the desired effect.

 

Try as they might to make a huge issue out of "bigot gate", the polls all seem to point to what I suspected, that it would have very little impact on the labour vote, despite "predictions" from some in the media that "bigot gate" would be the "game changer".

 

There have been reports that the Sunday Mail have paid some £50-100,000 pounds to Gillian Duffy to print her exclusive story on Sunday.

If I were in Cameron's camp I would advise him to get the Mail to stop the story as it's not going to draw too many votes away from Labour, but may indeed backfire on Cameron, as voters are put off from an obvious attempt to keep the story running in the last week of the election.

[Anna B]

The only reason I might want to see Gordon back in number 10 (and I don't...) is that at least then he'd have to clear up his own mess.

[Kingmaker2]

The interesting factor is how the votes are likely to be spread. If the Lib Dems get a uniform 25% across the country, not much will change. If people vote tactically, we might see a very unusual parliament with all three parties having quite a large number of MPs.

 

It will be interesting to see how Brown and Cameron handle that.

 

Nick Clegg has been telling his supporters today that it is now a 2 horse race.......well he is correct on that score......only the race is between Conservative and Labour.

 

As much as Clegg would love to get a Lib Dem majority, the up surge in the Lib Dems popularity has only served to confuse the issue as to whether the Conservatives manage to get a majority or not.

[Guest sibon]

Nick Clegg has been telling his supporters today that it is now a 2 horse race.......well he is correct on that score......only the race is between Conservative and Labour.

 

As much as Clegg would love to get a Lib Dem majority, the up surge in the Lib Dems popularity has only served to confuse the issue as to whether the Conservatives manage to get a majority or not.

 

The Conservatives wont get a majority though. There has hardly been a single poll that suggests that as a possibility. The boundary changes make it difficult for the Tories to win. The legacy of the Blessed Margaret stil lives on too. Middle aged people are statistically more likely to vote than young people, so the carnage of the Thatcher years will weigh heavily for some time yet.

 

If the Lib Dems get a good tactical vote, we might end up with a parliament that is so well hung that a second election becomes pointless. At that point, the three parties will have to work together. An interesting proposition.

[Kingmaker2]

The Conservatives wont get a majority though. There has hardly been a single poll that suggests that as a possibility. The boundary changes make it difficult for the Tories to win.

 

Well that's what I mean by the Lib Dems muddying the waters a little, they may well take some of the seats that they(Tories) otherwise would have won.

 

It all looks to a hung parliament with the Conservatives getting the most seats, although, as I said Lib Dem support may be hemorrhaging a little as people begin to realise that denying the Tories might actually see Brown back in power.