So Labour have blown it!

[Br8inend]

It was hell! No two ways about it!

 

... those that cannot remember watch Boys from the Blackstuff. I still hate Thatcher with a passion.

 

Poor yosser, I remember glennis.

[callippo]

As the last batch of opinion polls were predicting Cameron to get in the region of 310 seats, it really doesn't matter what Brown thinks at all. Cameron doesn't need to do a deal with the Libdems as he can get a working majority from alliances with the remaining parties if the Libdems don't toe the line.

Just as a matter of interest. In every election since polls began the polls have overestimated Labour's vote and underestimated Tory votes by 2% to 5%. So if that is repeated today, it is irrelevant anyhow.

 

garbage. In 1970, polls were pointing to a Labour victory but there was a surprise 8% swing from them to the Tories.

 

http://ukirishhistory.suite101.com/article.cfm/1970-uk-general-election

 

This election produced one the biggest upset victories in UK election history. All the polls during the campaign pointed to a Labour win similar to their win four years before Edward Heath, to every one's deep surprise, rolled into Number 10 with a thirty seat majority.

[Uptowngirl]

garbage. In 1970, polls were pointing to a Labour victory but there was a surprise 8% swing from them to the Tories.

 

http://ukirishhistory.suite101.com/article.cfm/1970-uk-general-election

 

This election produced one the biggest upset victories in UK election history. All the polls during the campaign pointed to a Labour win similar to their win four years before Edward Heath, to every one's deep surprise, rolled into Number 10 with a thirty seat majority.

 

I think if you are able to read my post that that is exactly what I said. The opinion polls have consistently overstated Labour support and understated that for the Conservatives. That is exactly what your link shows. At the last election Labour's vote was around 2.5% down on the polls and the Tory's about 1.5% up.

[biotechpete]

It's the Tories that have blown it. If Labour are so bad this election should be done and dusted. As it stands the Tories probably won't win a majority. So what is wrong with Cameron? What is wrong with the Tories?

 

What's wrong with the electorate and the electoral system more like.

 

Rotten Labour seats bought with borrowed money by a party on borrowed time.

[Kingmaker2]

As the last batch of opinion polls were predicting Cameron to get in the region of 310 seats, it really doesn't matter what Brown thinks at all. Cameron doesn't need to do a deal with the Libdems as he can get a working majority from alliances with the remaining parties if the Libdems don't toe the line.

Just as a matter of interest. In every election since polls began the polls have overestimated Labour's vote and underestimated Tory votes by 2% to 5%. So if that is repeated today, it is irrelevant anyhow.

 

Well actually it does, because like it or not the incumbent PM, as convention dictates, remains the Prime Minister in the event of no one party winning overall majority.

It is up to Brown to try to form a workable government and it is only after Brown decides that he can't then he will have to recommend to the Queen who could, which obviously could be Cameron.

 

What happens after the election in a hung parliament is ultimately up to Brown not Cameron......Cameron will need to wait for Brown to wave the white flag before going to the Queen.

[mj.scuba]

Labour shouldn't be written off (as much as I'd like them to be ) even with a smaller slice of the overall electorate they can still pick up a higher number of seats. And anyway, whoever gets in, there still needs to be a stong opposition imo. When the opposition is weak, it allows the government of the day to get away with whatever.

[esme]

I still think it's possible for one party to gain the most votes but the fewest seats while at the same time another party gets the fewest votes but the most seats

 

in fact I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happens

 

I wonder what william hill's odds are for that

[mj.scuba]

I have just been thinking.....all we heard from the Labour camp post TV debates were ...."Gordon lost it on style....".

 

I wonder if on Friday Ed Balls, Lord Mandleson & Alan Johnson will be saying "...we lost the election on style....yeah the other parties have got some style but we have the policies...."

[Uptowngirl]

Well actually it does, because like it or not the incumbent PM, as convention dictates, remains the Prime Minister in the event of no one party winning overall majority.

It is up to Brown to try to form a workable government and it is only after Brown decides that he can't then he will have to recommend to the Queen who could, which obviously could be Cameron.

 

What happens after the election in a hung parliament is ultimately up to Brown not Cameron......Cameron will need to wait for Brown to wave the white flag before going to the Queen.

 

I understand the protocol very well, but I am not really sure that Brown will have much say in the matter. The polls were predicting 310 seats for the Tories, and as has been seen in the past generally underestimate the Tory vote by a few percent.

The Tories only need 314 seats to guarantee a working majority, in which case the Libdems will need to get on board very quickly if they want any part of the pie on offer. A deal with any of the small parties would be possible for Cameron. Brown would need to recruit the whole lot to hang on to power. If he tries to cling on with a minority, he will be out on a vote of confidence in a fortnight looking an even bigger loser than he will if he packs his bags straight away.

[Kingmaker2]

I still think it's possible for one party to gain the most votes but the fewest seats while at the same time another party gets the fewest votes but the most seats

 

in fact I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happens

 

I wonder what william hill's odds are for that

 

The thing is though UK General elections have never been about the popular vote, but the number of seats won.

Nick Clegg has made an issue out of the popular vote because it's the only think that the Lib Dems have some type of parity with the 2 main other parties.

 

It will almost always be the case that the majority of the UK elecorate did not vote for the party that is eventually declared the winner.