Greek contagion to spread to the UK

[Vague_Boy]

Moody's Downgrades Ireland to Baa3, Outlook Negative

 

Don't worry, it's contained.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[quisquose]

We're doooooomed, doooooooomed I tell'ya.

 

[Rupert_Baehr]

Perhaps the Brits will borrow money at X% and lend it to Ireland at (X+2)%? (Where X+2 is less than the Irish would have to pay if they borrowed the money themselves.)

 

Then keep your fingers crossed that the Irish don't renege on the debt.

 

I was watching a programme on TV last night which was talking about the problems in Portugal and which noted that the Germans (in particular) are reluctant to lend money to Portugal until the Portuguese government (and the Portuguese people) accept 'austerity' measures. - Measures which one participant said would be so strict that they might stall any possible economic recovery in Portugal. The Portuguese government is a 'caretaker' government and appears to be unable (or unwilling) to accept the proposed measures and to bind the future government to the deal.

 

Understandably perhaps, the Germans aren't willing to lend money on the off-chance that Portugal may accept the deal.

 

The discussion moved on to whether some of the countries with weaker economies might be forced out of the Euro. It was argued that such a mover would be pointless, because their debts are already in Euros and the Euro would have to take the strain of whatever conditions/terms/reduction in value were imposed upon it resulting from a default by one of those weaker countries.

 

It was generally agreed that it would be impossible to force the weaker countries to abandon the Euro.

 

But - as one of the participants noted - There is no reason why some of the stronger countries could not abandon the Euro.

[quisquose]

It was generally agreed that it would be impossible to force the weaker countries to abandon the Euro.

 

But - as one of the participants noted - There is no reason why some of the stronger countries could not abandon the Euro.

 

Or one of the weaker countries, as I said in #51. In fact I suspect this is more likely.

 

IMHO there does seem to be some feeling of inevitabilty that a country will be leaving sometime soon. I guess there's a feeling of solidarity at the moment, but once one country throws in the towel, I wonder how quicky the rest will follow.

[Vague_Boy]

Moodys downgrade Irish banks to "Junk" status.

 

Moody's downgrades Irish banks' ratings to junk

 

As Eddie Izzard would say, it's all slowly collapsing "like a flan in a cupboard".

 

And just the other day

 

World Bank president: '[World] one shock away from crisis'

 

My point in continually bumping this thread with updates is to counter the lie about the financial crisis of 2008, namely that "no one could have seen it coming".

 

I say round spherical objects to that.

 

These things are eminently predictable, as long as you're paying attention.

 

NOTE: Addling your brain with soaps, "sleb" gossip and football does not count as "paying attention".

[wednesday1]

Moodys downgrade Irish banks to "Junk" status.

 

Moody's downgrades Irish banks' ratings to junk

 

As Eddie Izzard would say, it's all slowly collapsing "like a flan in a cupboard".

 

And just the other day

 

World Bank president: '[World] one shock away from crisis'

 

My point in continually bumping this thread with updates is to counter the lie about the financial crisis of 2008, namely that "no one could have seen it coming".

 

I say round spherical objects to that.

 

These things are eminently predictable, as long as you're paying attention.

 

NOTE: Addling your brain with soaps, "sleb" gossip and football does not count as "paying attention".

 

 

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

[L00b]

Moodys downgrade Irish banks to "Junk" status.

Moody's downgrades Irish banks' ratings to junk

<...>

My point in continually bumping this thread with updates is to counter the lie about the financial crisis of 2008, namely that "no one could have seen it coming".

I saw it coming 'properly' as early 2005, when I lived in Dublin...and decided to up sticks and come back here in early 2008, once I knew the game would definitely be up by the end of that year (in Ireland at least, but probably all along 'the chain' too).

 

But then again, you have to realise what a basket case Ireland (and Northern Ireland, to a similar extent up to 2008 ) was in the later stages of the Celtic Tiger. Noone used to comment much about it or discuss it, for years, because everybody and their dog was too happy to gobble up Irish never-never €s.

 

It certainly made everybody rather uncomfortable around a diner table: you know, when local guests would remind you of how "rent was dead money" and wonder how come you were not on the housing ladder yet, having a little peer/social pressure poke, at which point you would in turn wonder about their own financials, considering they were on less income than you + had a mortgage multiple in double-digits + spent most weekends out and/or away + changed cars and Xmas-shopped in New York every year ).

 

I mean, so many Dublin & periphery homeowners saw the value of their (still-mortgaged) property get multiplied time and time over (and I mean the full value multiplied, not by a fraction) in a matter of a few years, paper-millionaires extraordinaires. It was insane and got to be, well, just jaw-dropping. Personal borrowing/debt was orders of magnitude more out of control there than in the UK, along parallel time frames.

 

So, of course, the correction is proportional.

 

Relativised down to the invidual, I really doubt the UK soared so far, therefore does not have as much to fall/correct.

 

I note that the BoI differential (relative to AIB, for instance) is quite perverse on Moody's part, considering they were just as bad as the others. A local BoI bank manager offerred me a mortgage with a 7 x annual multiplier with a smile, a wink and a nod, on a recommendation/support from my previous employer at the time. Needless to say, I laughed and politely declined (resisting the urge to call that guy certifiably insane to his face proved really hard, though)

[Obelix]

Lots of people saw it coming Vague_boy, not just yourself. With a little cynicism I say it coming in 1997 when the Grinner got the keys to No 10, but by the early 2000's the writing was on the wall plain to see. Selling off the gold reserves was the final indicator that the Chancellor had lost the plot and I started planning for the fallout - mainly by buying as much of that cheap gold as I could get my hands on.

 

What's most surprising is how Brown *didn't* spot what was happening which of course leads to speculation that he did know and was either unwilling to, unable to or worse still desirous of the inevitable outcome occurring as it did.

[Bigthumb]

Lots of people saw it coming Vague_boy, not just yourself. With a little cynicism I say it coming in 1997 when the Grinner got the keys to No 10, but by the early 2000's the writing was on the wall plain to see. Selling off the gold reserves was the final indicator that the Chancellor had lost the plot and I started planning for the fallout - mainly by buying as much of that cheap gold as I could get my hands on.

 

What's most surprising is how Brown *didn't* spot what was happening which of course leads to speculation that he did know and was either unwilling to, unable to or worse still desirous of the inevitable outcome occurring as it did.

 

I think he just turned a blind eye to it.

[Wildcat]

Are people still going on about those gold reserves

 

It is only with hindsight people complain. It was the right decision to make at the time. It met with European obligations and diversified risk.

 

As the Treasury study had advised

 

7.6 Above all, the programme successfully delivered a one-off and permanent reduction in risk on the net reserves as a result of the better diversification achieved. The value at risk on the UK’s net reserves has fallen by around 30 per cent as a result of the restructuring.

 

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/GoldReserves.PDF

 

 

Ohh and ps to those congratulating Vague Boy on his foresight.... This Greek contagion hasn't spread to the UK has it? Despite George Osborne's best attempts to trash our economy. If it does spread to us it will be solely down to his and Tory incompetence and failure to get the economy working.

 

The comdey ohh woe and thrice woe doom merchant has been wrong all along.

 

It is amazing how much history gets rewritten on forums by Tories, trying to promote their self interest