World Cup Odds: I need help.

[*_ash_*]

I do like Maths, but I was at work earlier and stumped by 'potential' infinity question.

 

Someone told me that a bookie was offering 100,000,000 pounds for anyone that could predict every score for the entire World Cup tournament.

 

Sounds worth a quid.

 

I don't care whether the story was a myth. That's not important.

 

Someone at work said, 'ah Ash likes numbers', 'ash, what are the odds of winning?' More than the lottery was asked? Easy answer.

 

I quickly suggested that it would be an infinity to the number of possible results, but soon realised that this cannot be the case, as there is a finite number of goals that could be physically scored in any one game.

 

I concluded [not mathematically] that even if this story wasn't true, it would be a genius idea. So many people would potentially place a pound on the chance of 100,000,000 squids, using their $$$ eyes, yet without requiring a paracetamol to work out the odds!

 

So would bookies have found a possible 1/googolplex ?

 

Any geeks or number people have an answer to the odds?

[anywebsite]

I'd take a 4am guess at somewhere around 10^56 to 1. It's a rip-off bet, you should get more money than exists for winning that with a £1 bet. It makes a go on the lottery look sane.

[Ghozer]

Theres way too many factors involved to work it out, you have things like..

 

how fit/tired etc said players are at any given moment, how fit said keeper is at the moment the ball is heading towards them, then there's other factors that will affect these also such as weather, grass condition and quality, then there's the crows, how much they are building the team spirit and confidence..

 

to be able to work it out you would need to know all these factors ahead of all the games (which is impossible) and then crunch the numbers per player, per team, per game and add the totals along the way.

[*_ash_*]

Theres way too many factors involved to work it out, you have things like..

 

how fit/tired etc said players are at any given moment, how fit said keeper is at the moment the ball is heading towards them, then there's other factors that will affect these also such as weather, grass condition and quality, then there's the crows, how much they are building the team spirit and confidence..

 

to be able to work it out you would need to know all these factors ahead of all the games (which is impossible) and then crunch the numbers per player, per team, per game and add the totals along the way.

 

Why would you?

 

Most of those factors change the possibility of the score being different, but don't affect the number of possible outcomes.

[ValleyBoy]

48 matches average odds 20/1 multiply 20 x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20x20 less 19% [the bookies cut ] and that is what would be a fair bet .My advice if the odds are not in your favour do not bet .

[ColinJ]

There was a case a few years back where some bloke tried to pull a scam on one of the big bookies, claiming he'd correctly forecast every result in all four English divisions on an accumulator. I seem to remember it was calculated that if it had been genuine, for a £1 stake he'd have won more than the total amount of cash in circulation in the country.

[Alex C.]

Apparently, it is just win lose or draw for each game.

 

The chances of guessing every game correctly though are 1 in 542,101,086,000,000,000,192 according to a blog comment here

[Rupert_Baehr]

I do like Maths, but I was at work earlier and stumped by 'potential' infinity question.

 

...Someone at work said, 'ah Ash likes numbers', 'ash, what are the odds of winning?' More than the lottery was asked? Easy answer.

 

I quickly suggested that it would be an infinity to the number of possible results, but soon realised that this cannot be the case, as there is a finite number of goals that could be physically scored in any one game.

 

I concluded [not mathematically] that even if this story wasn't true, it would be a genius idea. So many people would potentially place a pound on the chance of 100,000,000 squids, using their $$$ eyes, yet without requiring a paracetamol to work out the odds!

.:

 

AFAIR (From Uncle Bill, who used to run a Bookie's Emporium [or two] in your area) the odds aren't set merely bearing in mind the statistical probabilities, but also considering the amount wagered on the other options. If the bookie gets it right, then irrespective of who wins, he will. If there is a clear favourite, the bookies will offer good odds on the outsiders; if there are a number of possibilities, it's in their interests to spread the bets out as widely as possible- whilst making sure all bets are covered.

[HeadingNorth]

There are sixty-four matches, so the number of possible predictions, if it is win-lose-draw for each match, are three multiplied by itself sixty-four times. (3^64, for mathematical buffs.)

 

My calculator says that this number is 3,433,683,820,292,512,484,657,849,089,281. So a reasonably fair return for a £1 stake would be three million, million, million, million pounds. That's three nonillion pounds in modern parlance; a vastly larger sum than the entire wealth of every country in the world put together.

 

 

No, it is not a good bet!

 

 

(If the original story were correct and you had to predict the correct score for all sixty-four matches, it's not even worth trying to calculate the odds. You wouldn't be able to find a piece of paper big enough to write the number down.)

[andyofborg]

its not the result but your ability to predict it

 

there are 64 world cup games,

 

if you assume you have a 99% chance of getting a single result correct then the probability of getting all the results right is 0.53

 

if you assume you have a 90% chance of getting a single result correct then the probability of getting all the results right is 0.001