UK economic growth almost double the expected

[Grandad.Malky]

Trying to ignore that fact is laughable.

 

Not as laughable as claiming to have turned things around before the ink is dry on any documents they may have signed since they sneaked into power,

[Alex C.]

So you’re saying that the few Labour fans here did not predict a downturn in the economy the day after Labours defeat? Trying to ignore that fact is laughable.

 

As pointed out above, 0.4% of the increase is down to the construction industry. Can you really see the industry not contracting (or stalling) with the cancellation of the BSF programme?

 

These types of fiscal change will take time to filter through to the figures, and ti will be at least 3rd or 4th quarter before we can look at the figures and say 'well some of this is down to the new government'.

 

I very much doubt anyone expected a downturn to start the day the government got into office - and particularly when these figures include over a month of a labour government!

[Berberis]

Not as laughable as claiming to have turned things around before the ink is dry on any documents they may have signed since they sneaked into power,

 

I claimed nothing of the sort in actual fact.

[Berberis]

As pointed out above, 0.4% of the increase is down to the construction industry. Can you really see the industry not contracting (or stalling) with the cancellation of the BSF programme?

 

Back in late 2008 and early 2009, spending on government building projects almost entirely dried up anyway and that’s the state of play today.

 

I know what happened as I was working in that industry and was made redundant because of it.

[Alex C.]

Back in late 2008 and early 2009, spending on government building projects almost entirely dried up anyway and that’s the state of play today.

 

I know what happened as I was working in that industry and was made redundant because of it.

 

I'm not disputing any of that - I'm not one of the posters who only posts in support of Labour.

 

What I'm saying is that the effects of the cancellation of the BSF programme will definitely hit the GDP figures.

 

The cancellations are worth:

 

£12bn in 2010 & £22bn in 2011*

 

If the growth then falls due to a fall in the construction sector, you could probably look at the figures and infer it was due to the new governments fiscal policies.

 

* which seems like a lot more than was announced, so I'm not taking these as gospel

[Treatment]

IF this is accurate it shows an alarming variance from what was forecast, thus casting considerable doubt as to the veracity of those forecasting.

[Grandad.Malky]

I claimed nothing of the sort in actual fact.

 

My apologies but what are we to read into this statement.

 

Will this sudden increase in economic growth silence the neigh says

[Alex C.]

IF this is accurate it shows an alarming variance from what was forecast, thus casting considerable doubt as to the veracity of those forecasting.

 

Indeed, the OBR have forecast 1.2% for the whole of 2010. 6 months in and they're already wrong. Unless the government intends us to contract 0.2% for the remainder of the year

[Longcol]

Back in late 2008 and early 2009, spending on government building projects almost entirely dried up anyway and that’s the state of play today.

 

I know what happened as I was working in that industry and was made redundant because of it.

 

Hopefully not as an economist.

[andyofborg]

As pointed out above, 0.4% of the increase is down to the construction industry. Can you really see the industry not contracting (or stalling) with the cancellation of the BSF programme?

 

 

much of the 0.4% from the construction industry is a result of work which wasn't done earlier in the year due to the weather being done over the last couple of months