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Is the gold market ready to take a dive?


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I was looking at the increase in gold prices over the last 40 years or so and it had been at a stable until the early 80s where it started climbing.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3967.html

 

Is the gold bubble ready for bursting where it will return to the pre-80s prices, or will it continue to rise.

 

Will gold ever reach the pre-80s price?

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Whilst many parts of the world are in recession there are other parts which are booming and sending the demand for gold upwards. When you consider the places that are booming include India which has tradionally used a lot of the worlds gold for jewelry and some of the Arab countries are doing fine and they have also traditionally used a lot of gold. Wish I had a load of money to invest.

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I was looking at the increase in gold prices over the last 40 years or so and it had been at a stable until the early 80s where it started climbing.

 

I think you mean the early 1970s.

 

The price of gold was officially fixed at $35 an ounce from 1933 until August 15, 1971 when President Nixon suspended the convertibility of dollars into gold (effectively ending what was little more than a pseudo gold standard since this option was only available to other central banks).

 

From that point on, the gold price was no longer fixed and over the course of the 1970s, rose to around $880 an ounce.

 

When Paul Volcker took over as president of the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1980, he took stern measures to tackle the U.S. stagflation problem, raising U.S. interest rates to (at a peak) 20%. The gold price retreated drastically as investors piled back into cash and it spent the next 20 years in the doldrums.

 

If you believe that the current Federal Reserve chairman "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke is going to start raising the current 0.25% U.S. interest rates (and to keep on rising them well into to double figures) then yes, get out of gold if you have any.

 

He won't because it would cripple the U.S. economy (not that the U.S. economy is in such great shape anyway). Instead they'll just keep printing money (more quantitative easing is on the way over there) which just keeps pushing up the price of gold as people look for a store of wealth that can't easily be devalued.

 

Will gold ever reach the pre-80s price?

 

In purely dollar terms it has long since surpassed its 1980 high. Inflation adjusted however, it still has some way to go. (There's no way gold will ever trade at $35 an ounce I'm afraid. Production costs greatly exceed that and mines would simply shut down.)

 

Here is a chart showing the inflation adjusted price of gold (link). As you can see, we are well below the historic highs for gold. In fact, the 1980 high of $880 an ounce, when adjusted for inflation, would be $2,318 an ounce today. There's a long way to go yet.

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Gold prices will stay at a high price IMO whilst houses are not selling & people don't trust traditional investements due to bankers or the government!

 

Up until 1997, when Gordon Brown became chancellor, pension pots were pretty much tax free (until you received them when you retired)..... & he went & levied them with a 10% tax. Now you are possibly liable for tax on initial investment & then when you receive it (if it's over the income tax allowance).....so it gets you with a double wammy! And the government want you to plan for your old age....HA funny!

 

This to some extent, along with the general distrust of banks / bankers, has lead to people investing in gold & second properties (if they can't sell them they can give it the kids).

 

IMHO until the confidence returns to traditional investements I think demand and investment in the gold sector will keep prices high!

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I was looking at the increase in gold prices over the last 40 years or so and it had been at a stable until the early 80s where it started climbing.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3967.html

 

Is the gold bubble ready for bursting where it will return to the pre-80s prices, or will it continue to rise.

 

Will gold ever reach the pre-80s price?

 

If I knew the answers to those questions I wouldn't have to go to work for a living. I could make lots of money investing in the gold market.

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