shortcrust Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 What do we think is going to be the outcome and what does it mean? I'd have a punt at Labour winning but by less than 3,000 votes to Lib dems 2nd and Tories third with Greens in 4th. BNP, UKIP, Pirate Party, Elvis bus-pass party, English Democrats and the Loonies to lose their deposit. I see it as rretty much a referendum on what labour voters think of the current labour leadership so a big win for labour would be a vote of confidence in Milliband, a narrow margin would suggest they are not impressed. I think you might win your bet! May be hard for Labour to get a majority over 3000, especially if the turnout is low. There is also anecdotal evidence that some Tories will vote tactically for the the Lib Debs, further eroding the Labour majority. However, national polls show such a massive drop in Lib Dem support since the election that anything is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taxman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Walk in the park for Labour, with a majority of 3500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dell12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Didn't expect the Tory vote to collapse as it did. I reckon there were a heck of a lot of Tories voting Lib Dem to keep the result respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandad.Malky Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Didn't expect the Tory vote to collapse as it did. I reckon there were a heck of a lot of Tories voting Lib Dem to keep the result respectable. So the Tories bailed out Cleggs team this time ………… what’s going to happen when the real party appears. The Conservatives agreed to a referendum being held as part of the coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats. But most Tory MPs, including Prime Minister David Cameron, will campaign against any change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berberis Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Does anyone else think that in the general election a large number of Labour voters voted Lib Dem in Oldham but for this rerun a large number of Tory voters voted Lib Dem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mj.scuba Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Didn't expect the Tory vote to collapse as it did. I reckon there were a heck of a lot of Tories voting Lib Dem to keep the result respectable. Both Lib Dem and Tories polled less than in May 2010. Lib Dems around 3000 fewer votes, Tories around 7000 fewer votes. I think that suggests a low turnout amongst the Lib Dems and Tories, those votes haven't gone to Labour 'cos they only increased theres by around 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandad.Malky Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Does anyone else think that in the general election a large number of Labour voters voted Lib Dem in Oldham but for this rerun a large number of Tory voters voted Lib Dem? I think that disgruntled Labour voters nationally voted for Clegg ………. But not a Tory Clegg ……… the voters will have their day but until then its just a case of leaving Clegg to keep digging in the hole he as made for himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dell12 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Both Lib Dem and Tories polled less than in May 2010. Lib Dems around 3000 fewer votes, Tories around 7000 fewer votes. I think that suggests a low turnout amongst the Lib Dems and Tories, those votes haven't gone to Labour 'cos they only increased theres by around 500. It's difficult to make predictions as to what happened because the turnout was only 48%, down about 15% on the general election. I thought however it would have been the Lib Dems who got punished (particularly up North) rather than the Tories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uptowngirl Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 So the Tories bailed out Cleggs team this time ………… what’s going to happen when the real party appears. I'm not sure that the result changed anything at all. A disgraced Labour MP has been replaced by a new Labour MP at great expense to the tax payers and the local electorate. Result:the governments majority remains exactly as before. In a few weeks we will have another situation where a disgraced Labour MP will be replaced by a new Labour MP at great expense to the tax payers and the local electorate. Again result: the governments majority remains exactly as before. I am sure there will be some scanks who think it is a great victoryfor Labour to have one of their MPs chucked out of the commons so that they can gain a by-election win. No doubt there will be some who will feel that having a Labour MP banged up for fraud will allow them to gain another mighty win. So here's a plan. Labour could get all the party's MPs to resign on mass and force hundreds of by-elections and gain more memorable victories. That'll show the government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandad.Malky Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I thought however it would have been the Lib Dems who got punished (particularly up North) rather than the Tories. The result also presents a challenge to David Cameron, who will face questions of his own from sceptical backbenchers, who are irritated by the lengths the Prime Minister has gone to prop up his flagging Lib Dem partners. Mr Cameron made clear that he was happy for the Lib Dems to win in Oldham, an open invitation for Tory supporters to vote tactically for the Lib Dems which resulted in a collapse of the Tory vote last night. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1347026/Oldham-election-Nick-Clegg-faces-questions-leadership-Lib-Dems-crash.html#ixzz1B0kMVhMh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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