Has Phil Woolas caused double trouble for the Lib Dems?

[Guest sibon]

1. How is Wollas losing his 4000 majority and scraping by with 109 votes a first blow to the Lib Dems?

 

2. How is Woolas being thrown out of the Labour Party and being stripped of his seat by a court a second blow to the Lib-Dems?

 

Clearly, the first one is still a blow. Losing a seat, even by one vote is a blow.

 

The second point is more interesting and closer to the issue that I was trying to discuss, thanks for that.

 

I think that we can agree that the episode reflects rather badly on the local Labour Party. The Lib Dems are in free fall in the opinion polls. Which factor will have most effect in the by-election?

[espadrille]

Clearly, the first one is still a blow. Losing a seat, even by one vote is a blow.

 

The second point is more interesting and closer to the issue that I was trying to discuss, thanks for that.

 

I think that we can agree that the episode reflects rather badly on the local Labour Party. The Lib Dems are in free fall in the opinion polls. Which factor will have most effect in the by-election?

 

Depends whether you take any notice of opinion polls:shakes:

[Guest sibon]

Depends whether you take any notice of opinion polls:shakes:

 

I don't usually. (I was at that rally in 92:D)

 

In this case though, the Lib Dem poll rating has taken an absolute mauling. The Rochdale by-election will be the first proper chance to assess the accuracy of the polls. My gut reaction is that the Lib Dems have lost a fair amount of their soft vote, some to Labour, some to the Tories. It will be interesting to see whether local, or national factors dominate.

[hitch_1980]

1. How is Wollas losing his 4000 majority and scraping by with 109 votes a first blow to the Lib Dems?

 

2. How is Woolas being thrown out of the Labour Party and being stripped of his seat by a court a second blow to the Lib-Dems?

 

Its a two fold blow because the lib dems lost because of slander when peoples opinions of them were quite high. Now there the polls have dropped, they have to re-run the vote, and may not do as well, so may lose to a second person / party.

 

It will be interesting to see if the conservatives dont go for the seat, but back the lib dems.

 

If I was the greens, i would try and get a condidate in there asap, as it may be easy pickings.