Guest sibon Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It isn't exactly rocket science. Just put yourself in Cleggs place and answer the following question. You are in a coalition government wondering if you should break that coalition and force a general election. Which of the 2 is most likely to get you to go to the country. A...Hey Nick the opinion polls have us 10 points above what we polled in May and we could gain 20 seats if the election came now. B.. Hey Nick. The polls have us 10 points down on what we polled in May, and we stand to lose 20 seats including yours if we go to the polls. A simple A or B answer will do just fine. Sadly, it is much more complicated than rocket science. That operates on some very well established principles. In this case we have a cohort of Lib Dem back benchers watching Clegg pour their electoral prospects down the drain. He's the man on the telly. He's got the flatshare with Billy Hague (OK, he's also got a messy letterbox and a bulletproof car). The back benchers don't have that. It won't take many more episodes of selling out principles before some of them walk. It would take a couple of hours to re-form the Liberal Party. My bet is on exactly that happening within a year. Meanwhile, we have an increasingly aggressive Tory right wing sabre rattling, for equal and opposite reasons. Interesting times. Much more interesting than Newton's Laws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Oh right. I hadn't picked up on your biased logic. So when Labour's support declined from 43% in 2001 to 36% in 2005 and then to 29% in 2010 would that be terminal decine as well? Oh but hang on a minute, because over that same period the terminal decline of the Tories that you talk about actually involved their vote increasing. So a decline on the Tory vote involes it going up, but a when Labour vote is dropping they are on the up. Have I got it right? Here are the voting share's of the major parties (+ Lib Dems) since 1979: Year Con Lab Lib 1979 43.9 36.9 13.8 1983 42.4 27.6 25.4 1987 42.2 30.8 22.6 1992 41.9 34.4 17.8 1997 30.7 43.2 16.8 2001 31.7 40.7 18.3 2005 32.3 35.2 22.1 2010 36 29.0 23.0 Can't you see that since '92 the Con vote has not been near 40% even when the political landscape has looked very fertile for them as in the last election although their share of the vote went up by 3.7% from when they were lead by the unpopular Howard they still couldn't surpass 36% when they were lead by supposedly popular Smarmy Dave. Lab have as recently as 2001 been at 40+, though obviously their share of the vote has declined in the last two elections. In 2005 as a result of the war, and in 2010 the credit crunch and 'Brown factor'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I do hope that you enjoy talking to each other:roll: Yes thanks any problem with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berberis Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it's saying their support seem's to be in terminal decline. This time around despite the effects of the credit crunch and an unpopular labour leader they still only managed 36%. 1979 - con - 43.9% 1979 - lab - 36.9% 1983 - con - 42.4% 1983 - lab - 27.6% 1987 - con - 42.2% 1987 - lab - 30.8% 1992 - con - 41.9% 1992 - lab - 34.4% 1997 - con - 30.7% 1997 - lab - 43.2% 2001 - con - 31.7% 2001 - lab - 40.7% 2005 - con - 32.4% 2005 - lab - 35.2% 2010 - con - 36.1% 2010 - lab - 29.0% In actual fact as shown in the figures above you are wrong. Support for the conservative party has been growing ever since they lost power in 1997, when Labour support peaked. labours support has been on a down turn ever since so the only party in terminal decline is Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puisseguin Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here are the voting share's of the major parties (+ Lib Dems) since 1979: Year Con Lab Lib 1979 43.9 36.9 13.8 1983 42.4 27.6 25.4 1987 42.2 30.8 22.6 1992 41.9 34.4 17.8 1997 30.7 43.2 16.8 2001 31.7 40.7 18.3 2005 32.3 35.2 22.1 2010 36 29.0 23.0 Can't you see that since '92 the Con vote has not been near 40% even when the political landscape has looked very fertile for them as in the last election although their share of the vote went up by 3.7% from when they were lead by the unpopular Howard they still couldn't surpass 36% when they were lead by supposedly popular Smarmy Dave. Lab have as recently as 2001 been at 40+, though obviously their share of the vote has declined in the last two elections. In 2005 as a result of the war, and in 2010 the credit crunch and 'Brown factor'. I knew there would be a reason for why Labour's vote has gone into terminal decline. So over the last 13 years the Tory vote has increased at every election from 30.7% to 36%. In the same period Labour has reduced its share of the vote at every election from 43.3% to 29%. So run it by me again which one is in decline. Perhaps you should get a job as a returning officer and re-adjust Labour's vote for "crap leader", "illegal war" "even more crap leader" "2nd illegal war", "screwed up economy".:D:D The forum needs more poster like you to give us all a good laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 1979 - con - 43.9% 1979 - lab - 36.9% 1983 - con - 42.4% 1983 - lab - 27.6% 1987 - con - 42.2% 1987 - lab - 30.8% 1992 - con - 41.9% 1992 - lab - 34.4% 1997 - con - 30.7% 1997 - lab - 43.2% 2001 - con - 31.7% 2001 - lab - 40.7% 2005 - con - 32.4% 2005 - lab - 35.2% 2010 - con - 36.1% 2010 - lab - 29.0% In actual fact as shown in the figures above you are wrong. Support for the conservative party has been growing ever since they lost power in 1997, when Labour support peaked. labours support has been on a down turn ever since so the only party in terminal decline is Labour. Only 36% last time!!! after 13 years out of power, unpoplar govt, leader + credit crunch. Nope looks like they've got problems to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puisseguin Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Only 36% last time!!! after 13 years out of power, unpoplar govt, leader + credit crunch. Nope looks like they've got problems to me. I know which problems I'd rather have, and a vote down at 29% isn't it. AND YOU KNOW IT. 13 years of Education Education Education and there are still folks who think 29% is higher than 36% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I knew there would be a reason for why Labour's vote has gone into terminal decline. So over the last 13 years the Tory vote has increased at every election from 30.7% to 36%. In the same period Labour has reduced its share of the vote at every election from 43.3% to 29%. So run it by me again which one is in decline. Perhaps you should get a job as a returning officer and re-adjust Labour's vote for "crap leader", "illegal war" "even more crap leader" "2nd illegal war", "screwed up economy".:D:D The forum needs more poster like you to give us all a good laugh. Latest OP fig's: Latest Voting Intention 21 Dec 40 42 9 Lab +2 20 Dec 35 41 9 Lab +6 20 Dec 40 43 8 Lab +3 19 Dec 39 42 9 Lab +3 19 Dec 37 39 13 Lab +2 16 Dec 37 39 11 Lab +2 16 Dec 41 41 9 Tie 15 Dec 42 40 8 Con +2 14 Dec 39 42 9 Lab +3 13 Dec 41 42 9 Lab +1 keep smiling Penguin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
puisseguin Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Latest OP fig's: Latest Voting Intention 21 Dec 40 42 9 Lab +2 20 Dec 35 41 9 Lab +6 20 Dec 40 43 8 Lab +3 19 Dec 39 42 9 Lab +3 19 Dec 37 39 13 Lab +2 16 Dec 37 39 11 Lab +2 16 Dec 41 41 9 Tie 15 Dec 42 40 8 Con +2 14 Dec 39 42 9 Lab +3 13 Dec 41 42 9 Lab +1 keep smiling Penguin! Just remind me which party it is that decides whether to call an early election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atticus Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 We all know there is only one party in decline and it isn't one of the big two. It'll take a decade for the Lib Dems to recover from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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