Oddgitt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is an interesting documentary about what happened in Cuba during the early 1990's when the US prevented them from importing oil: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1721584909067928384# It has quite a positive message about community food growing and various ways that they adapted to the situation. Perhaps a more interesting view however, is portrayed in the novel 'Dirty Havana Trilogy' by Pedro Juan Gutiérrez which describes his experience of surviving during these extremely harsh times. My own experiences of understanding Peak Oil has led me to get an allotment, 2 pets that are capable of hunting, learning about DIY and small-scale renewable electricity and buying a bicycle and trailer. Peak oil (the point where oil price becomes too high for it to be economically viable as an energy/ fuel source) isn't far away for us now, it has already hit northern Scotland and the islands where they are paying over £1.50 p/ltr for petrol and are footing the extra costs of importing (via shipping, rail & road) their food. The Financial Times also recently had a front page story warning of an imminent global economic collapse due to increasing oil prices. Apologies, but your understanding of what peak oil is, is wrong. Peak oil is where the rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which oil production will inevitably decline. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil An unhappy by product of this will obviously be fuel prices going up. Some sources say we've passed peak oil already, some say it's coming in the next few years, some say 2050-ish, some say alot longer. Who is right? We (Britain) have just tapped into a huge reserve in the falklands, and they reckon there's alot more in that area rich for the taking. There are alot of oil wells we know about, and hopefully alot we don't, that haven't been tapped into yet. How can peak oil be reached if we are still finding and tepping into reserves? It's on it's way - it won't last forever. But hopefully the scientists will have found a way to overcome this before it happens so that we can transition without the whole apocalypse and ritoing and return to medieval living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFKvsNixon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 if 55 million people have to go then there is one way we can avoid starvation.... anyone for a chavburger? Hmmmm, Soylent Green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavegirl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Apologies, but your understanding of what peak oil is, is wrong. Peak oil is where the rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which oil production will inevitably decline. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil An unhappy by product of this will obviously be fuel prices going up. Some sources say we've passed peak oil already, some say it's coming in the next few years, some say 2050-ish, some say alot longer. Who is right? We (Britain) have just tapped into a huge reserve in the falklands, and they reckon there's alot more in that area rich for the taking. There are alot of oil wells we know about, and hopefully alot we don't, that haven't been tapped into yet. How can peak oil be reached if we are still finding and tepping into reserves? It's on it's way - it won't last forever. But hopefully the scientists will have found a way to overcome this before it happens so that we can transition without the whole apocalypse and ritoing and return to medieval living. Well, I've been reading intensely about Peak oil and its consequences for about 2 years now. I realise that the academic point of peak oil is Hubbert's Peak which, as you say, is the median point of global oil production. However, I think in the real world it's far better to consider it as an economic phenomenon and many other professional peak oil analysts also take this perspective. The reason I take this perspective is that it doesn't matter if there is oil left in the ground if we can't afford to produce it. Also, as you can see from the documentary I linked, it is possible to undergo a 'peak oil' scenario even if there's plenty of oil still in the ground. The reason peak oil can and inevitably will be reached is because a) oil is a finite resource and therefore there has to be a mid point for its production, and b) our rate of global discovery peaked c.1965. Although we are finding fields they are never anywhere near the size of the super-giant fields like Ghawar (this is the largest field in the world, based in S. Arabia that it was announced last year will soon be undergoing Enhanced Oil Recovery in order to pump more from its dwindling reserves). We currently consume more than 86 million barrels per day, so what can appear to be a large field in the news is actually not that large when you do the maths. As far as I'm aware the hopes for the Falkland reserves were actually dashed. The best field so far found- the Sea Lion can produce only 2000 barrels per day and other fields have been shown to be barren. See this report: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/19/rockhopper-fails-find-oil-falklands http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/8010069/Market-report-Rockhopper-jumps-on-news-from-Falklands.html The North Sea oil annual report has indicated that their oil has been in decline at a rate of 6 to 10% per year since the late 1980's and that the government is not providing enough funding to oil discovery projects for them to potentially offset this with more deep water drilling. This is an excellent video on the future of global oil production by a professor at Stanford University if you haven't seen it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fake Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If all oil stopped the Arabs would starve to death and we would be riding on old Neddy or bicycles Medieval times here we come That may happen anyway and not because of the lack of oil. Remember the old TV series Survivors, not the recent rubbish one. Any global catastrophe could have the same outcome as the more we rely on technology the more vulnerable we become. What needs to be remembered is that the USA is still a large producer of oil and at the last estimate with the current consumption we have enough oil in the world to last around 40 years before it starts to decline. We also still have large seams of coal that could be mined and turned to oil or gas if necessary, and that's not taking into account any new oil finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kered9 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How do you think you will buy petrol from the petrol stations... its not about them opening it's about getting the staff. Who works in a supermarket, discovers mad max scenario is rolling around the corner and gets talked into opening for one last day? There wouldn't be enough police to stop the gangs because as above the police are doing a job... they wouldn't be going to work in this situation, they would be sorting their own family out. The incentives required to get people to co-operate with the government across the whole country would be un-obtainable, so the lack of organisation would travel all the way up the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavegirl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That may happen anyway and not because of the lack of oil. Remember the old TV series Survivors, not the recent rubbish one. Any global catastrophe could have the same outcome as the more we rely on technology the more vulnerable we become. What needs to be remembered is that the USA is still a large producer of oil and at the last estimate with the current consumption we have enough oil in the world to last around 40 years before it starts to decline. We also still have large seams of coal that could be mined and turned to oil or gas if necessary, and that's not taking into account any new oil finds. US oil production has been in decline since the 1970's, they have very little left in comparison with their peak of production. Look again at the IEA figures fake. There's never been an explanation of what the 'unconventional conventionals' are that make up the future growth of oil production until 2035 (which is what the UK government takes as the date of peak oil). In fact, it would appear that they're a made up figure designed to prevent panic for any layman who was to see the report. Several IEA whistleblowers have actually stated that this is the fact: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency There appears to be quite a bit of coal based upon a world that is still guzzling oil, but what happens when everyone suddenly shifts to coal- the rate of depletion increases dramatically and the emmissions create havoc with the planet's atmosphere. Coal is not going to solve the problem. Gas is currently used to make numerous products including pesticides, fertilisers, plastics and medicines. Using it as a replacement for oil will simply reduce the amount of time that these other necessary items can be provided. None of these things are present in the UK anymore so we have to be prepared to pay a premium price for access to them as well as making alliances with states that may not be entirely to our liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fake Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cavegirl. Coal can be used to make oil and IIRC the Chinese government have just done a deal to use Scottish technology for just that purpose, its oil that's used to make plastics etc. and not gas. What's left from that coal processing can also be used as fuel. The emissions from coal can also be controlled and one of the useful emissions is coal gas. This country used coal in the past for gas and can do so again except it could now also be used for transport. Mind you, the OP was originally about if all the worlds oil suddenly stopped flowing. As pointed out is an almost impossible scenario as its not held in one big tank and is spread about in pockets all over the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavegirl Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cavegirl. Coal can be used to make oil and IIRC the Chinese government have just done a deal to use Scottish technology for just that purpose, its oil that's used to make plastics etc. and not gas. What's left from that coal processing can also be used as fuel. The emissions from coal can also be controlled and one of the useful emissions is coal gas. This country used coal in the past for gas and can do so again except it could now also be used for transport. Mind you, the OP was originally about if all the worlds oil suddenly stopped flowing. As pointed out is an almost impossible scenario as its not held in one big tank and is spread about in pockets all over the world. Actually oil and gas are essentially the same thing, it's just that oil was formed under greater degrees of depth, heat and pressure than gas, hence it is a liquid and gas is a gas. Gas fields generally occur directly above oil fields. They have the same chemical components and therefore are both used to make these products. With regard to the coal-to oil idea, at present time the factories are only producing 5000 barrels a day, peak coal is not that far away if the world is without oil and it is far from a 'clean' technology, producing twice the CO2 emmissions of normal diesel. Oil is spread across the world it's true, but it is also transported via specific oil routes and is provided by a specific supplier. If those supplies are disrupted it could take months to make new arrangements and that is assuming that another supplier has the extra capacity available in production to supply an entire new country. As far as I'm aware, we're currently begging the Saudi's to up their production in order to lower the price of oil because nobody else can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liza D Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Mind you, the OP was originally about if all the worlds oil suddenly stopped flowing. As pointed out is an almost impossible scenario as its not held in one big tank and is spread about in pockets all over the world. Actually what I asked is "what would you do if the flow of all oil stopped?" not whether it was probable or not. This is the problem, people just don't want to believe that one day it will no longer be there to use or it's the "so what I won't be alive when it runs out, so why should I care." attitude. If countries started producing more of what they can rather than importing it that oil we have would last a wee bit longer to start with and if things ever did come to a sudden head we would at least be able to provide some food for ourselves, because in this day and age nothing and I mean nothing is impossible. Read the book Fake, it's an eye opener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fake Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hi Liza D. Just had a quick search and it seems to have some good reviews, says the plot is plausible! As I like thrillers and this is fairy cheap I will give it a go. I'm writing a thriller and some sci-fi so its good to read other stuff but don't like reading much at the moment as I wish my ideas to come from me if you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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