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Which will be the next Arab state to topple?


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I can't see a situation where voting is an issue while mubarak is still about. I would imagaine when he is forced out that an interim regime would bring different groups together to try to trash out a new outline constituion to be put to a referendum, followed by elections.

 

A country isn't democratic just because it holds elections. It can only really be considered democratic if the government ever changes as a result of elections.

 

Zimbabwe and Iran are the classic cases in point.

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A country isn't democratic just because it holds elections. It can only really be considered democratic if the government ever changes as a result of elections.

 

Zimbabwe and Iran are the classic cases in point.

 

we have more elections in a few months. they're saying this time Mugabe will go. just everybody forgets to tell him he's lost all the time. otherwise we're extremely democratic.

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A country isn't democratic just because it holds elections. It can only really be considered democratic if the government ever changes as a result of elections.

 

Zimbabwe and Iran are the classic cases in point.

 

I agree. I think the street support (and indeed ihkwan backing) of elbaradei as interim leader is a good omen that Egypt will not go down the extremist route and will have time to pause to consider a constitutional framework which guarentees genuine democracy before launching into elections.

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Well, maybe if you consider many nations aren't getting involved because they can see the options after the fall.

 

Ther's no reason for any other nation to get involved at this stage. Once change happens then interested parties (ie europe re the canal and the US re the canal and thier aid package) will take a view on the new government and act appropriately. I don't think egyptians, even of a fairly hardline islamist bent, are so foolish as to think that they can answer the grievances of the people (unemployment, economic stagnation, lack of freedom) by imposing some mediaval laws, blocking the canal and destroying the tourist industry.

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When he does go, who gets that palace with the pretty blue roof?

 

it depends on when he goes. if he dies now or someone, somehow, manages to get him out the state house(with the blue roof) will most likely burn along with a lot of the country. there are at least five people all with 'legitimate' claims. the army won't support the air force. both hate the police as much as they do each other. MDC has a lot of support but not much else...and, of course, Mugabe still has a lot of support himself. he's grooming his son, who's, maybe 20 or so years old. the man has another 10 or so years i think, at least.

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Ther's no reason for any other nation to get involved at this stage. Once change happens then interested parties (ie europe re the canal and the US re the canal and thier aid package) will take a view on the new government and act appropriately. I don't think egyptians, even of a fairly hardline islamist bent, are so foolish as to think that they can answer the grievances of the people (unemployment, economic stagnation, lack of freedom) by imposing some mediaval laws, blocking the canal and destroying the tourist industry.

 

Well, their your thoughts on the matter.

 

The debates on all the news channels with the experts from the areas have some other views.

 

One question a lot of people involved in the area are asking is why hasn't Obama stepped in and told Mubarak to go... (not stay!)

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Well, their your thoughts on the matter.

 

The debates on all the news channels with the experts from the areas have some other views.

 

One question a lot of people involved in the area are asking is why hasn't Obama stepped in and told Mubarak to go... (not stay!)

 

I've not seen a single expert on any TV channel yet. People postulating opinions, nobody saying "this is what will happen" which is something I'd expect an expert to do.

 

Of course, my views are just my views. I'm not claiming to be an expert. I may well be eating my words in 3 months time and tourists will be being beheaded for not wearing a burka in Sharm al Sheik, but I'm reasonably well versed in the history of the region and the economics of the region and I think that my view has a strong probability of being more in line with what will happen than the alarmist approach that is being spread by large sections of the the media who seem to have switched from almost orgasmic reporting of the protests to THE MAD ISLAMISTS ARE COMING!!!! without any real proof.

 

As for the US, they have deals with the current regime, they have deals with numerous other regimes of similar nature. Why would they say anything?

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