Gadaffi to block oil export

[sedith]

Looks like we'll be on £2 a litre before Easter then!

[Lucifer]

Looks like we'll be on £2 a litre before Easter then!

 

Libya only produce a small amount of oil and Saudi Arabia have turned up the taps so there should not be a shortage but no doubt the price of petrol will go up again.

[upinwath]

By the sounds of things, that [removed] could block his nose at the moment. He'll be dead soon so don't worry too much.

[Vague_Boy]

Libya only produce a small amount of oil and Saudi Arabia have turned up the taps so there should not be a shortage

 

Saudi Arabia Can’t Solve Libya: The Myth Of Spare Oil Capacity

 

The talk in the news is that if Libya’s oil stays offline – it’s the world’s 12th largest producer – Saudi Arabia can make up for any short fall. But it’s not that easy. Barclays Capital’s Amrita Sen explains:

 

Firstly, the grades and quality of crude available from Saudi Arabia [are] likely to be different from Libya. For instance, the volume-weighted average of Libyan grades would have an API of around 37-38, while the current shut in Saudi production is biased towards medium crude. Moreover, Libyan crude is sweeter…

 

Prompt Brent markets have also flipped into slight backwardation, a trend we expect to continue in the short term, if sourcing immediate supplies is the concern. Moreover, the time taken to bring those Saudi barrels to the market is likely to be significantly longer compared to the ongoing Libyan production. Thus, the concept of a barrel for barrel replacement is not a correct one.

 

Gregor MacDonald explains spare capacity theory:

 

Of course, “everyone knows” that OPEC is sitting on lots of oil. However, as has been discussed here, at The Oil Drum, and elsewhere it remains decidedly unclear whether Saudi Arabia can indeed turn on extra taps at will. But the problems for world supply of oil do not merely end with production capacity. Even if OPEC is indeed sitting on 1-3 mbpd of spare capacity, it’s not clear for how long they can both increase production, and export that production to the world. Not only has Saudi Arabia’s production not increased in the past five years, but, Saudi is increasingly using its own oil for its own population. The result? Flat, to declining exports of oil from Saudi Arabia.

 

Spare Capacity Theory, therefore, looks a lot like an unproven consensus reality. I’d like to define it as follows:

 

Spare Capacity Theory: the assumption among western bankers, policy makers, economists, and stock markets that OPEC producers can lift oil production at will, and, export all of that spare production to world consumers.

 

LINK

 

America lost control over oil pricing when it hit peak production in 1970 (as predicted by the Hubbert curve). It had to happen to the Saudis eventually.

 

Time to invest in a decent pair of walking shoes?

[Missdan]

It's already gone up 3p in three days just outside Chapeltown.

[retired]

Bring on Hydrogen powered cars. The worlds population is increasing and every human being will consume oil, some more than others. Oil will soon start to run out and pricing will ration it. This is inevitable and now is the time for developed countries to change to alternative fuel like for instance Hydrogen and nuclear.

 

Reducing the birth rate will help but how do you tell women and families how many kids they can have. Can't imagine politicians telling their people to stop at 1 or 2 kids. Taxation could do it but it would have to be global.

[Noob]

I wouldnt worry about it, his head will be on a spike before the weekend is out.

[Lucifer]

LINK

 

America lost control over oil pricing when it hit peak production in 1970 (as predicted by the Hubbert curve). It had to happen to the Saudis eventually.

 

Time to invest in a decent pair of walking shoes?

 

Is backwardation an americanism or did you make it up.

[upinwath]

I use a mountain bike.

[Lucifer]

I use a mountain bike.

 

Many mountains in Wath then:huh: