sharrowman Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 With public and private debts in the states topping out 50trillion dollars http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf Unemployment at 9% and a bullish chinese economy - how long before a complete economic collapse in the states? These commentators ( http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-54-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-Autumn-2011-Budget-T-Bonds-Dollar-the-three-US-crises-which-will-cause_a6340.html ) suggest a collapse before the end of this year? Any one feel the same way? What might the implications be for an economy like ours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Closet Guy. Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Itll never, ever, ever happen. I know that will dissapoint some but nope, it wont happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharrowman Posted May 10, 2011 Author Share Posted May 10, 2011 "Itll never, ever, ever happen. I know that will dissapoint some but nope, it wont happen. " Any, like, erm, analysis to support your assertion or is it just a matter of faith for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Closet Guy. Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 "Itll never, ever, ever happen. I know that will dissapoint some but nope, it wont happen. " Any, like, erm, analysis to support your assertion or is it just a matter of faith for you? Not about faith. Just common sense. You see if im right. Infact id go so far as to wager you i am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harleyman Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 With public and private debts in the states topping out 50trillion dollars http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf Unemployment at 9% and a bullish chinese economy - how long before a complete economic collapse in the states? These commentators ( http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-54-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-Autumn-2011-Budget-T-Bonds-Dollar-the-three-US-crises-which-will-cause_a6340.html ) suggest a collapse before the end of this year? Any one feel the same way? What might the implications be for an economy like ours? Not a chance. The US economy is in fact recovering even if only slowly and the dollar being at a current low only makes US exportst more competative. As for a bullish Chinese economy it would take a great big tumble if the US economy went down since the US is a huge market for Chinese made products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharrowman Posted May 10, 2011 Author Share Posted May 10, 2011 "Not about faith. Just common sense. You see if im right. Infact id go so far as to wager you i am. " So, no analysis then, just 'common sense'. What would be the nature of your proposed wager? Harleyman, How do you support your assertion that the US economy is recovering? Yes, China would take a tumble if US collapsed, but not such a big one that they are willing to accept US bullying about currency chinese currency controls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sierra Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 What I notice is things getting back to normal. It was absolutely insane a few years back. People spending like drunken sailors. City/county/state etc. governments having huge inflated budgets based on projected income that was never collected due to the housing collapse/unemployment. Frankly, there were a lot of people who thought that the party was never gonna end. How wrong they were. What goes up inevitably comes down. Hard. Everyone is just tightening their belts. Not buying things if you don't truly need it, etc. Keeping your cars longer, looking for bargains. TV shows like Extreme Couponing are all the rage. It's suddenly chic to be frugal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harleyman Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 "Not about faith. Just common sense. You see if im right. Infact id go so far as to wager you i am. " So, no analysis then, just 'common sense'. What would be the nature of your proposed wager? Harleyman, How do you support your assertion that the US economy is recovering? Yes, China would take a tumble if US collapsed, but not such a big one that they are willing to accept US bullying about currency chinese currency controls. If you believe that the stock market is an indicator of how the economy is look at the DOW and the latest figures. Back in 2009 it was down around 8,000 something from a high of 14,000 during the boom years. Now it's up around 12,700 and climbing. Statisitics show that more companies are now hiring, especially the smaller businesses although the unemployment rate is still too high at 9.0 %. Sales of new cars and other vehicles are brisk and there are signs of commercial development although the housing market is still in the doldrums due to banks being over cautious in lending to potential homebuyers. I see this improving within the next 1-2 years as the home loan interest rates are now ridiculously low. The Chinese currency is artificially low and that is causing some tension between the two countries. In the long run China will follow the same path as Japan did when it's economy started to take off in the mid 1950s. Chinese products will only be able to remain cheap for so long but as their economy grows and the prosperity with it the demand for higher wages is inevitable and since most Chinese work for what could be called near slave wages this demand will be intense within the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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