Lebanon/Hizbullah, and Israel

[callippo]

they're headed if they're not careful, dozily, for another war. Israel doesn't want it. Lebanon doesn't want it. Only proxy Hizbullah wants it. They want to impress their Syrian and Iranian allies that they're able to do something to help their fellow Shia in their time of trouble. Who the hell can blame Israel for watching closely.

[upinwath]

There's a reasonable chance of some serious hooting in the not too distant future.

Egypt looks like it may get a fairly extreme government and they were very well armed by the US over the last few years.

A bunch of other countries would love to see Israel damaged and many of those countries have governments who would happily join in.

The Gaza border has been reopened to a mass of no protest from the states.

That lack of noise tells a story.

[callippo]

Egypt has no appetite to take on the Israelis and they don't have the capability. As for the 'other countries' you (don't) mention, Syria has other things to think about than Israel at the moment and Israel has already shown they can bomb anywhere in Syria they want, when they want, and with no response.

 

the Gulf countries, even Saudi, don't see Israel as any threat at all. In fact if anything they're allied with Israel in that all of them see Iran as the main threat.

 

there's only Hizbullah that might attack Israel again in the immediate future, and even they will probably think it's not worth the trouble even if they are being leaned on by the Syrians and Iranians. They know they'll probably end up apologising to the Lebanese people like they did last time and end up looking like idiots.

[callippo]

oh wait. Despite their considerable internal problems, Syria and Iran are still trying to bash Israel :

 

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/netanyahu-arms-on-seized-ship-came-from-iran-via-syria-1.349358

 

It is our right and duty to stop the smuggling of these weapons," the prime minister said, adding that all nations connected to the ship had been updated on the situation.

 

The Israel Defense Forces' Spokesman said that "Victoria" had set out from the Lattakia port in Syria and sailed to Mersin, Turkey. It was seized while on its way from Turkey for the El-Arish port in Egypt.

 

Turkey is not responsible for the ship "in any aspect," the IDF said.

 

Israel recently congratulated their Turkish neighbours upon their having had the most free and fair democratic elections involving a Muslim country that there has ever been in world history. This is what Israel wants to see in the rest of the Middle East.

 

the Turks responded thus :

 

Turkey seizes cargo of Iranian plane bound for Syria

 

Turkey says it has seized the cargo of an Iranian plane bound for Syria because the shipment violated U.N. sanctions.

 

The Foreign Ministry did not disclose the content of the seizure, but the U.N. sanctions against Iran ban the export of arms and prohibit nuclear enrichment.

 

Turkish media said Wednesday the plane was carrying light weapons, including automatic rifles, rocket launchers and mortars.

 

Turkey says the plane, which had landed in the southeastern city of Diyarbakır on Saturday for the search, returned to Iran Tuesday night without the seized cargo. The government says it routinely searches Iranian cargo planes flying over Turkey.

 

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