Jump to content

Freak weather in october


Recommended Posts

All weather services run "models" and slightly tweak them and then re-run to see what the predictions then look after that and so on.

 

They do, indeed, run such models. What the models inevitably show is that even a deviation in wind speed of 1 inch per hour, or a variation in temperature of one millionth of a degree, leads to such wildly varying end results that it's flatly impossible to make reliable weather predictions for more than four or five days in advance.

 

When the Met Office says that there is a higher than normal probability of a worse than usual winter, they mean exactly that; they emphatically do not mean what the newspapers usually say they've predicted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The US firm that predicted last year’s Arctic snap as well as the previous big freeze of 2009-2010 also warned that we might be in for another cold spell.

 

Weather Services International said October, November and December would see temperatures around two degrees lower than average.

 

Spokesman Dan Leonard said: “[it will be] 0-1 degrees below average in the UK for October and November. Cooling to 1-2 degrees below average in December.

 

“We haven’t released a winter forecast yet but the upper-level pattern we expect to develop in December suggests at least a cool, stormy start to the winter over the UK and much of northern mainland Europe.”

 

WSI’s chief meteorologist, Dr Todd Crawford, added: “We *currently expect the coldest temperatures to be confined to western Europe.”

 

Jonathan Powell, senior forecaster for Positive Weather Solutions, said the UK was set for an “exceptionally dry” two months which, if coupled with high pressure, could compound a cold spell. The warnings come just a week after the tail-end of Hurricane Katia *battered Britain with winds reaching 82mph.

 

In other words, we're going to have a season called "winter" this year. Just like we have every year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.