Do you believe in man made global warming?

[truman]

Even if the Co2 rises are a blip or natural or whatever, do you really think our current lifesyle is susstainable and beneficiall? that alone should be a good reason to make a change.

 

as mentioned earlier we have little to lose and everything to gain by changing our ways

 

If you want to start a thread about sustainable living then go ahead,this one is about "man made climate change"..

[fruitisbad]

No I'm not I know the difference.. it would appear that it's the proponents of manmade climate change that are confused,first it was global warming ,then climate change and now,to cover all bases I suppose,it's climate chaos (when has it ever been anything other?)..show a link that gives the frequency of "extreme weather events".. according to some there has been no warming over the past 10 years even though the concentration of CO2 has increased..if CO2 is the culprit then how does this happen?

 

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/hurricanefrequency.shtml

 

About twice as many Atlantic hurricanes form each year on average than a century ago, according to a new statistical analysis of hurricanes and tropical storms in the north Atlantic. The study concludes that warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and altered wind patterns associated with global climate change are fueling much of the increase.

 

The study, by Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Peter Webster of Georgia Institute of Technology, will be published online July 30 in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.

 

"These numbers are a strong indication that climate change is a major factor in the increasing number of Atlantic hurricanes," says Holland.

 

The analysis identifies three periods since 1900, separated by sharp transitions, during which the average number of hurricanes and tropical storms increased dramatically and then remained elevated and relatively steady. The first period, between 1900 and 1930, saw an average of six Atlantic tropical cyclones (or major storms), of which four were hurricanes and two were tropical storms. From 1930 to 1940, the annual average increased to 10, consisting of five hurricanes and five tropical storms. In the final study period, from 1995 to 2005, the average reached 15, of which eight were hurricanes and seven were tropical storms.

 

This latter period has not yet stabilized, which means that the average hurricane season may be more active in the future. Holland and Webster caution, however, that it is not possible at this time to predict the level at which the frequency and intensity of storms will stabilize.

 

The increases over the last century correlate closely with SSTs, which have risen by about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 100 years. The changes in SSTs took place in the years prior to the sharp increases in storm frequency, with an SST rise of approximately 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit leading up to 1930 and a similar rise leading up to 1995 and continuing even after. The authors note that other studies indicate that most of the rise in Atlantic SSTs can be attributed to global warming.

 

Natural cycles and global warming

 

Hurricane Data

A new climate study indicates that hurricanes and tropical storms became more frequent in the Atlantic Ocean during three distinct periods over the last century, as shown in this graphic. The first part of the 20th century (in white) was relatively quiet, with an annual average of 6 observed hurricanes and tropical storms. The annual average increased to 10 after 1930, and then reached 15 from 1995 to 2005 (in darkest shading). This graphic shows both the total number each year (blue line) and the nine-year running average, calculated from four years back through four years ahead of a given year. Called a running mean, this method smoothes out year-to-year variability to reveal the long-term trend. The new research associates the increasing storms with rising sea-surface temperatures.

 

The unusually active hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 have spurred considerable research into the question of whether more intense tropical cyclones are correlated with natural cycles, global warming, or some other cause. The new study indicates that natural cycles are probably not the entire cause because the increase has happened across the last century rather than oscillating in tandem with a natural cycle.

 

The study also finds that enhanced observations in recent decades cannot account for all of the increase. To observe storms in the Atlantic more systematically, meteorologists began relying on data from aircraft flights in 1944 and satellites about 1970. The distinct transitions in hurricane activity noted by Holland and Webster occurred around both 1930 and 1995.

 

"We are of the strong and considered opinion that data errors alone cannot explain the sharp, high-amplitude transitions between the climatic regimes, each with an increase of around 50 percent in cyclone and hurricane numbers, and their close relationship with SSTs," the authors state.

 

While the number of storms has steadily increased, the proportion of hurricanes to all Atlantic tropical cyclones has remained steady. Hurricanes have generally accounted for roughly 55 percent of all tropical cyclones. However, the proportion of major hurricanes (those with maximum sustained winds of at least 110 miles per hour) to less intense hurricanes and tropical storms has oscillated irregularly, and has increased significantly in recent years.

 

Last year's storms

 

The 2006 hurricane season was far less active than the two preceding years, in part because of the emergence of an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean. However, that year, which was not included in the study, would have ranked above average a century ago, with five hurricanes and four other named storms.

 

"Even a quiet year by today's standards would be considered normal or slightly active compared to an average year in the early part of the 20th century," Holland says

[MrSmith]

How do you explain the fact that in previous times the level of CO2 has been higher yet the temperature lower and vice-versa?

 

It will be something to do with the fact that atmospheric CO2 isn’t the only thing that influences earth temperatures and global warming. The sun, volcanic activity and other gasses including methane affect the earth’s temperature. A massive volcanic eruption would increase atmospheric CO2 whilst at the same time block the sun, the result would be higher CO2 and a colder planet.

 

 

We have no control over the sun and volcanic activity but we can control the gasses and pollutants we pump into the atmosphere. We have nothing to lose by reversing deforestation, cutting green house gas imitations and cutting the pollutant we pump into our oceans and atmosphere.

[truman]

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/hurricanefrequency.shtml

 

About twice as many Atlantic hurricanes form each year on average than a century ago, according to a new statistical analysis of hurricanes and tropical storms in the north Atlantic. The study concludes that warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and altered wind patterns associated with global climate change are fueling much of the increase.

 

The study, by Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Peter Webster of Georgia Institute of Technology, will be published online July 30 in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.

 

"These numbers are a strong indication that climate change is a major factor in the increasing number of Atlantic hurricanes," says Holland.

 

The analysis identifies three periods since 1900, separated by sharp transitions, during which the average number of hurricanes and tropical storms increased dramatically and then remained elevated and relatively steady. The first period, between 1900 and 1930, saw an average of six Atlantic tropical cyclones (or major storms), of which four were hurricanes and two were tropical storms. From 1930 to 1940, the annual average increased to 10, consisting of five hurricanes and five tropical storms. In the final study period, from 1995 to 2005, the average reached 15, of which eight were hurricanes and seven were tropical storms.

 

This latter period has not yet stabilized, which means that the average hurricane season may be more active in the future. Holland and Webster caution, however, that it is not possible at this time to predict the level at which the frequency and intensity of storms will stabilize.

 

The increases over the last century correlate closely with SSTs, which have risen by about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 100 years. The changes in SSTs took place in the years prior to the sharp increases in storm frequency, with an SST rise of approximately 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit leading up to 1930 and a similar rise leading up to 1995 and continuing even after. The authors note that other studies indicate that most of the rise in Atlantic SSTs can be attributed to global warming.

 

Natural cycles and global warming

 

Hurricane Data

A new climate study indicates that hurricanes and tropical storms became more frequent in the Atlantic Ocean during three distinct periods over the last century, as shown in this graphic. The first part of the 20th century (in white) was relatively quiet, with an annual average of 6 observed hurricanes and tropical storms. The annual average increased to 10 after 1930, and then reached 15 from 1995 to 2005 (in darkest shading). This graphic shows both the total number each year (blue line) and the nine-year running average, calculated from four years back through four years ahead of a given year. Called a running mean, this method smoothes out year-to-year variability to reveal the long-term trend. The new research associates the increasing storms with rising sea-surface temperatures.

 

The unusually active hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 have spurred considerable research into the question of whether more intense tropical cyclones are correlated with natural cycles, global warming, or some other cause. The new study indicates that natural cycles are probably not the entire cause because the increase has happened across the last century rather than oscillating in tandem with a natural cycle.

 

The study also finds that enhanced observations in recent decades cannot account for all of the increase. To observe storms in the Atlantic more systematically, meteorologists began relying on data from aircraft flights in 1944 and satellites about 1970. The distinct transitions in hurricane activity noted by Holland and Webster occurred around both 1930 and 1995.

 

"We are of the strong and considered opinion that data errors alone cannot explain the sharp, high-amplitude transitions between the climatic regimes, each with an increase of around 50 percent in cyclone and hurricane numbers, and their close relationship with SSTs," the authors state.

 

While the number of storms has steadily increased, the proportion of hurricanes to all Atlantic tropical cyclones has remained steady. Hurricanes have generally accounted for roughly 55 percent of all tropical cyclones. However, the proportion of major hurricanes (those with maximum sustained winds of at least 110 miles per hour) to less intense hurricanes and tropical storms has oscillated irregularly, and has increased significantly in recent years.

 

Last year's storms

 

The 2006 hurricane season was far less active than the two preceding years, in part because of the emergence of an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean. However, that year, which was not included in the study, would have ranked above average a century ago, with five hurricanes and four other named storms.

 

"Even a quiet year by today's standards would be considered normal or slightly active compared to an average year in the early part of the 20th century," Holland says

 

What a huge time scale eh? 100 years....

[truman]

It will be something to do with the fact that atmospheric CO2 isn’t the only thing that influences earth temperatures and global warming. The sun, volcanic activity and other gasses including methane affect the earth’s temperature. A massive volcanic eruption would increase atmospheric CO2 whilst at the same time block the sun, the result would be higher CO2 and a colder planet.

 

 

We have no control over the sun and volcanic activity but we can control the gasses and pollutants we pump into the atmosphere. We have nothing to lose by reversing deforestation, cutting green house gas imitations and cutting the pollutant we pump into our oceans and atmosphere.

 

Have you seen the tables which show that CO2 lags behind temperature..?

[Cyclone]

You should have said never in human history as CO2 been higher, two examples of when it was higher have been given, go back even further before life began when our planet was too hot for life and it was higher still. Past climate changes have been linked to mass extinctions, it only takes a small increase in temperature to affect life at the bottom of the food chain, if they die or reduce in numbers the domino effect could be disastrous.

 

 

I for one don’t want my grandchildren if I ever get any to pay the price for our inaction.

 

There's no proof that any action we take would either have any affect or all or that if it did it would be beneficial.

As recently as the 1970's scientists were predicting that the current interglacial period (which has been unusually long and stable) could come to an end in the near future. I suspect that entering a new ice age would be quite detrimental to us...

[Cyclone]

also, you're misunderstanding the term 'warming' its continuous increase in average global temperature, not just some years are warmer that others. Look at the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. more of this will be on the way if we are not carefull

 

What increase in extreme weather is that?

[Cyclone]

We have nothing to lose by reversing deforestation, cutting green house gas imitations and cutting the pollutant we pump into our oceans and atmosphere.

 

Some of that is just the right thing to do, reducing pollutants for example.

But to claim that there's nothing to loose is incredibly naïve. Cutting CO2 emissions isn't free, we could end up diverting a large portion of the GDP of the world to that end, making us all suffer.

[fruitisbad]

What increase in extreme weather is that?

 

Our current level of understanding, as summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007), is as follows:

 

Since 1950, the number of heat waves has increased and widespread increases have occurred in the numbers of warm nights. The extent of regions affected by droughts has also increased as precipitation over land has marginally decreased while evaporation has increased due to warmer conditions. Generally, numbers of heavy daily precipitation events that lead to flooding have increased, but not everywhere. Tropical storm and hurricane frequencies vary considerably from year to year, but evidence suggests substantial increases in intensity and duration since the 1970s.In the extratropics, variations in tracks and intensity of storms reflect variations in major features of the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation.

[erebus]

The globe is like a balloon and instead of air, there is lava, a thick viscous plastic material, where if one place is pushed in, it pushes out in another place, compensating for the depression.

 

The ice sheets, glaciers, were once much bigger than they are now, and their weight was considerable, depressing the earths crust locally due to their weight. Their removal has allowed the land to be free of its compressive force, and therefore can start to return to its natural state pre glaciation..

 

Unfortunately, the world is not a balloon, and seismic activity locally as in Greenland, and Chile, where the glaciers have melted considerably, has it seems, slowly affecting the earth's crust. I am amazed that this link has not been made between the increase in seismic activity, in the form of particular volcanic activity, in the last couple of years, which has affected travelling by air, and the melting of the respectice local glaciers.

 

But we want to travel, and buy lots of stuff, and as the glaciers melt, seal levels rise at 3mm a year and the earth’s previously weighted crust compensates for the reduction in weight will continue, in further unexplained seismic activity.

 

Don't you just love a mass debate??????