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From our Chief Economist


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Just in. Hold tight.

 

 

 

Lowering our forecasts

 

The storm clouds that loom over the global economy are getting darker. With the debt crisis in Europe undermining confidence, we have cut sharply our economic forecast for the euro zone and now expect an outright contraction in GDP next year. We are also concerned that this may have a knock-on effect on the US economy, as well as on emerging markets such as China, Brazil and Russia. As a result, this month we have also lowered our growth forecasts for the US and many other economies. Even if the euro zone does not break apart, policymakers, investors and businesses have much to think about.

 

How is the weak global economy affecting your business?

Please let me know at: .

 

Best regards,

 

Robin Bew

Chief Economist

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Have I got this right? Times are tough across the World at the moment? Do you really pay for this stuff, Tony.

 

Well, blow me down with a feather.

 

I guess that it is all Gordon Brown's fault too. Especially the bit about Brazil. And the Eurozone.

 

Proof, if you need it that Brown should never have been allowed to be in charge of Greece.

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  • 1 month later...

This week's missive doesn't look any rosier.

 

Grim tidings from the UK

 

Austerity in the UK is going to hurt more and last longer than the government previously admitted. That is the upshot of a revised assessment of the UK's fiscal prospects by the Office for Budget Responsibility, and of this week's autumn statement to parliament by the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne. The UK's woes offer a timely reminder that overenthusiastic fiscal tightening at a time of global economic weakness can make it harder for governments to balance their books—while adding to the pain suffered by businesses and households. Other European governments and even the US should take note.

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Economists are good at telling us what happened, rubbish at telling us what is going to happen and totally useless at preventing it happening.

 

 

This is correct. Although I suspect the exams and education you need to qualify for in a degree in Economics probably does not include time travel. They are no better equipped to tell the future than people who are milkmen or a lollypop ladies.

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Just in. Hold tight.

 

 

 

Lowering our forecasts

 

The storm clouds that loom over the global economy are getting darker. With the debt crisis in Europe undermining confidence, we have cut sharply our economic forecast for the euro zone and now expect an outright contraction in GDP next year. We are also concerned that this may have a knock-on effect on the US economy, as well as on emerging markets such as China, Brazil and Russia. As a result, this month we have also lowered our growth forecasts for the US and many other economies. Even if the euro zone does not break apart, policymakers, investors and businesses have much to think about.

 

How is the weak global economy affecting your business?

Please let me know at: .

 

Best regards,

 

Robin Bew

Chief Economist

 

And as a consequence Lord Hutton says public sector pension reforms need to go further to keep them affordable, more strikes on the way because people won’t accept a more frugal life.

 

Lord Hutton sees "urgency" for public sector pension deal

 

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I guess that it is all Gordon Brown's fault too. Especially the bit about Brazil. And the Eurozone.

 

Proof, if you need it that Brown should never have been allowed to be in charge of Greece.

 

You forgot to mention our old friends the Bankers.

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