Scottish Independence

[tinfoilhat]

I completely agree but I think Cameron's days are numbered whatever the outcome. Come Friday, whether it's a Yes or a No, Salmond will claim victory. If it's a Yes we will have a minor constitutional crisis and if it's a No, Labour will for ever be reminding the Tories that it was a former Labour PM who saved the Union.

 

If I was a betting man, I would say Scotland will vote no by a narrow margin, Cameron will resign or be forced out, and the next UK Government will be a Labour-Lib Dem pact. I would also bet all the money in my pocket that this time next year all three UK parties, and the SNP will have new leaders.

 

And we won't get a vote on the EU either!

[JFKvsNixon]

Northern Ireland already have a version of Devo Max which is basically Home Rule.

 

The Government have completely and utterly ballsed this up.

 

They ruled out Devo Max as a third choice in the referendum.

 

Had it been included it's the one that would have won.

 

It's the nearest thing to independence, without the risk of full independence..

 

They thought that 'In or Out' would scare the Scots into voting Yes.

 

Once it became clear that there was a possibility of them voting Yes anyway the Government bottled it and offered Devo Max if the vote is No.

 

Complete lack of leadership, no brains employed, display of weakness, if the Scots do vote Yes - which I doubt - Cameron should resign.

 

I'd be worried that if there had been three options on the ballet paper, with one of them being an option for Devo Max, this might split the no voters and it could mean that a yes vote might win with less than 50% of the votes cast.

 

Anyone can see that a narrow no vote would have to lead to more powers being devolved to Scotland in any case, so I don't see the need for an Devo Max option.

 

I'd have been tempted to stipulate that for the yes vote for independence to be successful it must gain a majority over everyone who was eligible to vote, as opposed to a majority of those that turned out to vote.

[Andy]

And we won't get a vote on the EU either!

 

I think we will, and I hope we have the same level of debate Scotland has had. It should be a carefully thought through decision based on jobs, trade and the economy, but I fear it will turn into a debate about vacuum cleaners and bendy bananas.

[blake]

I completely agree but I think Cameron's days are numbered whatever the outcome.

 

Cameron's days would have been numbered anyway, even without all this palaver with the Scottish Referendum and UKIP. He has been leader of the Tory party, for nearly 10 years already. He was never going to get any more seats in the next Westminster parliament than he got in this one anyway. That would have been enough to finish him, even before this storm swelled. The Tories would not have spared him regardless for not doing any better in 2015, than he did in 2010.

 

---------- Post added 16-09-2014 at 23:27 ----------

 

I If it's a Yes we will have a minor constitutional crisis.

 

yeah sure. It would be easily the biggest constitutional crisis Brtiain has ever faced, by a mile.

 

10 years, in the bog at least for everybody. Great news.

[blake]

three weeks ago, I did actually go to the trouble of getting on this train up there with the idea of taking the pulse of the Scottish nation.

 

I went to the obvious place : Sammy Burn's Secondhand yard shop, in Prestonpans, six miles south of Edinburgh.

 

straight away, I knew it was going to be close. But I still think NO will narrowly win this election.

[mjw47]

I'd be worried that if there had been three options on the ballet paper, with one of them being an option for Devo Max, this might split the no voters and it could mean that a yes vote might win with less than 50% of the votes cast.

 

Anyone can see that a narrow no vote would have to lead to more powers being devolved to Scotland in any case, so I don't see the need for an Devo Max option.

 

I'd have been tempted to stipulate that for the yes vote for independence to be successful it must gain a majority over everyone who was eligible to vote, as opposed to a majority of those that turned out to vote.

 

Yes, and your worry was exactly what the Government had.

 

Turned out they got it wrong, which resulted in them now offering Devo Max in a desperate attempt to persuade people not to vote Yes.

 

Problem is, this now shows them in a poor, weak position, whereas had they allowed it in the first instance, it would have looked magnanimous

 

This whole situation has been dealt with in a completely incompetent manner.

 

In 1918 there was a general election in Ireland which resulted in Sinn Fein winning 73 out of 101 seats , the British Government decided to ignore and overturn a democratic election which they had organized.

 

At that time the Irish were only looking for Home Rule, by the time the British had completely buggered the situation up the Irish wound up with a Republic, and inspired other British Colonies to seek freedom.

 

Cameron follows in a long line of pompous stupid Englishmen ,who, through the arrogance of their birth simply don't 'get' how normal people think and feel.

 

If Scotland vote Yes - which I still doubt- then Cameron will have his place in history, but not one he would have chosen.

[Waldo]

Interestingly, the portion of yes to no votes, is greater for outside Scotland, than for inside!

 

I'm kinda hoping they vote yes.

[blake]

Interestingly, the portion of yes to no votes, is greater for outside Scotland, than for inside!

 

 

only permanent residents of Scotland, over 16 years of age can vote in this election. Not anybody else.

[Andy]

Cameron's days would have been numbered anyway, even without all this palaver with the Scottish Referendum and UKIP. He has been leader of the Tory party, for nearly 10 years already. He was never going to get any more seats in the next Westminster parliament than he got in this one anyway. That would have been enough to finish him, even before this storm swelled. The Tories would not have spared him regardless for not doing any better in 2015, than he did in 2010.

 

You're right, of course. This is evident from Boris Johnson's recent selection as a parliamentary candidate in a safe seat for the next general election. I suppose the interesting question is who will take over in the interim? Will they let Cameron fight and lose the next election or will they get rid and select someone to act as a caretaker until Boris can take over? If so, who?

 

The Clacton by-election hasn't received much press coverage in the last few weeks due to events in Scotland but it is worth remembering that Cameron faces another blow on 9 October as that by-election is almost certainly going to deliver UKIP's first MP.

[Mecky]

I'm beginning to think they should vote yes, just to teach themselves a lesson