wednesday1 Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 In the first opinion poll to be conducted since the budget Labour appears to have cemented it's place at the head of the opinion polls. The polls have been consistently showing a growing disatisfaction with the ConDems failing policies for the last couple of months, now the Labour appears to have increased further. The Lib Dems are currently polling just 9% - pretty much where they have been since the General Election, and face a likely further humiliation in the May local elections. Back in 1979 the Conservatives under Thatcher enjoyed terrible poll ratings (until the Falklands crisis), as they dismantled the UK's manufacturing base throwing millions onto the dole. This time round, since their policies have stopped economic recovery in it's tracks are they set to become even more unpopular than they were then? YouGov’s first post-budget poll 22 Mar 2012 Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. This is the first voting intention poll conducted wholly after the budget, though much of it was before this morning’s newspapers and the continuing media coverage we’ve had today (for the record, YouGov’s actual fieldwork times are from around about 5.30pm yesterday until around about 4pm this afternoon) The eight point Labour lead equals the largest this year. It could be a budget knock for the Conservatives, though it is worth remembering that we also had another eight point lead earlier this week before the budget (in so much as it can be “before” a budget that had been so widely leaked), so it could be normal margin of error. The YouGov poll has various other questions on the budget. The increase in the personal tax allowance is predictably popular, with 90% of people supporting the change. There are also solid majorities in favour of the cut in corporation tax, allowing shops to open on Sundays during the Olympics and the increaase in stamp duty on homes worth more than £2million. Turning to the more controversial measures, 55% of people opposed the decision to cut the 50p tax rate to 45p, with 32% in support. The opposition to this measure is less strong than most of the pre-budget polling on the question – the difference is largely because polls before the budget tended to show Conservative voters opposed to the abolition of the 50p tax rate. The post-budget poll shows 60% of Tory voters in favour. Part of this might be because people are happier with a 45p compromise than abolishing the band completely, but a lot is probably Conservative supporters being more supportive of a policy when the Conservatives actually do it. Where they haven’t done that is the least popular part of the budget, which predictably is the “granny tax”. Only 18% of people support increasing taxes paid by pensioners by phasing out the age-related tax allowance, with 64% opposed. This includes 57% of the Conservative party’s own voters and, as one might expect, 79% of people over the age of 60. Overall just under a third of people (32%) think the budget is fair, compared to 48% who think it is unfair. To put this in context, YouGov asked the same question after last year’s budget and found 44% thought that budget was fair. The survey also asked people whether they thought different income groups would end up paying more or less in tax as a result of the budget. 46% thought poorer people would pay less in tax, and 56% thought that the richest people in Britain will end up paying less tax. In contrast, 40% think people on average incomes will end up paying more, compared to just 23% who think they will gain and asked about “people like themselves” 21% of people think’ll end up paying less tax, 37% think they’ll end up paying more. All this suggests the budget has not gone down well. What remains to be seen now is whether there is any real knock to voting intention once we’ve got some more polls to judge by (as ever, one should never put too much weight on one poll) and, if so, whether it lasts once the immediate negative coverage of the budget fades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat owl Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Cutting & pasting gone wrong so can't even be bothered to try and work out what the point is !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 Cutting & pasting gone wrong so can't even be bothered to try and work out what the point is !!! Sorted for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riannon Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Cutting & pasting gone wrong so can't even be bothered to try and work out what the point is !!! It probably explains why Boris is miles ahead in the coming London Mayoral election. That's the one in a few weeks not a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mecky Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 It has nothing to do with the budget. It's the same old story, tories cut everything so the entire country and economy is run into the ground and can't function. They like to bully people around, people get fed up and vote them out, but not before they try and bribe the electorate with tax cuts they can't afford. Thus Labour have to spend heavily to get the country ticking again, the tories then bleat on about borrowing/spending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat owl Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Read it and still can't be bothered as we're years away from the next election and polls now mean nothing !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 It probably explains why Boris is miles ahead in the coming London Mayoral election. That's the one in a few weeks not a few years. It would appear that Boris is ahead despite Labours poll lead which is even greater in the capital than it is nationally. See below (YouGov): Ultimately though, Ken’s problem remains that he cannot convert Labour’s national support in London into support for him. In London’s Westminster voting intentions Labour have a 12 point lead over the Conservatives, CON 34%, LAB 46%, LDEM 9%. However, only 69% of those Londoners who say they’d vote Labour in a general election say they’d vote for Ken for mayor (10% would vote for Boris, 3% for Paddick, 3% for others, 4% wouldn’t vote and 11% don’t know). In comparison 86% of London Tory voters say they will vote for Boris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mecky Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Read it and still can't be bothered as we're years away from the next election and polls now mean nothing !! Unless Mr I'll-sell-my-party-and-the-entire-UK-down-the-river pulls out of the government Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat owl Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Unless Mr I'll-sell-my-party-and-the-entire-UK-down-the-river pulls out of the government Think you're getting confused with the last Government !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 Read it and still can't be bothered as we're years away from the next election and polls now mean nothing !! Maybe sooner than you think, if the Libs jacked. Afterall they've had their day in the sun. If they kicked Clegg out and called it a day in the Coalition, some of them might still have a shred of credibility on which to build for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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