andyofborg Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I wonder how many non-mainstream parties will do well in the next election. I'd hazard a prediction of; SNP increasing to perhaps even 20 seats UKIP starting to win seats, maybe a handful initially The NHS alliance maybe getting 20+ seats Plaid Cymru increasing by a couple of seats The Greens winning a couple more A smattering of single issue independents the snp and greens may do relatively well. plaid cymru will probably not do much better, they don't seem have have made the same impact in wales that the snp has in scotland, though now the welsh assembly has primary legislative power that may change. i can't see ukip doing anything, except perhaps as a protest vote in the very safe conservative seats. All this in a commons reduced to 600 seats. that may end up not happening, once the boundary commission has completed it's work then a further vote in parlaiment is required. i believe that this vote has to be taken sooner rather than later in order for the changes to take effect in time for the next election. it may be possible for those opposed to the government to delay and divert the vote until too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 the snp and greens may do relatively well. plaid cymru will probably not do much better, they don't seem have have made the same impact in wales that the snp has in scotland, though now the welsh assembly has primary legislative power that may change. i can't see ukip doing anything, except perhaps as a protest vote in the very safe conservative seats. that may end up not happening, once the boundary commission has completed it's work then a further vote in parlaiment is required. i believe that this vote has to be taken sooner rather than later in order for the changes to take effect in time for the next election. it may be possible for those opposed to the government to delay and divert the vote until too late. .......or the coalition expires before it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyofborg Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 .......or the coalition expires before it! i'm not sure that it will.... the lib dems are pretty much toast no matter what they do and it seems unlikely that the conservatives will do much better than they did in the last election so i cant see any hurry in either parties leadership to end it sooner than they have too. edit: i'm not sure labour are keen for an early election either, on the face of it the current polling figures seems to give them a working majority but i'm sure they must be worried about whether or not scotland would vote for the snp in the same numbers they did for the scottish parliament and they would also need to come up with a meaningful set of policies which are significantly different to the conservative's which stimulate growth but don't involve excessive borrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 i can't see ukip doing anything, except perhaps as a protest vote in the very safe conservative seats. I can honestly see UKIP doing quite well, and possibly hold the balance of power in the next election (ie like the Lib Dems) if the present Govt keep ignoring their own voters. The only way i see out of this, is either one of the other 3 parties promise a referendum on EU, and lets face it, they have all said similar in the past. Will the electorate believe them again though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 It does help if you have a multi-million pound party electoral machine helping you out. Don't you think? Imagine if we could create a party that appeals to people, that is funded by the people? Think of Obama contributions that helped him in the first term. Yes he had some big backers later in the game, but when he went against Hillary, it was a lot of public donations that assisted his campaign. Its a thought to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 i'm not sure that it will.... the lib dems are pretty much toast no matter what they do and it seems unlikely that the conservatives will do much better than they did in the last election so i cant see any hurry in either parties leadership to end it sooner than they have too. edit: i'm not sure labour are keen for an early election either, on the face of it the current polling figures seems to give them a working majority but i'm sure they must be worried about whether or not scotland would vote for the snp in the same numbers they did for the scottish parliament and they would also need to come up with a meaningful set of policies which are significantly different to the conservative's which stimulate growth but don't involve excessive borrowing. I still think there are a greater majority of disillusioned voters who are looking for an end to the tri party system we have now. Its way to early to call this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyofborg Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Imagine if we could create a party that appeals to people, that is funded by the people? Think of Obama contributions that helped him in the first term. Yes he had some big backers later in the game, but when he went against Hillary, it was a lot of public donations that assisted his campaign. Its a thought to think about. ok, lets do it what are our policies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 ok, lets do it what are our policies? Ive started a draft on this..... Sunday dinner is a calling in our house, and if i dont get off my laptop i fear my family might sack me. Open a new topic and lets start this....or ill do it tonight when my mum role is finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyofborg Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I still think there are a greater majority of disillusioned voters who are looking for an end to the tri party system we have now. Its way to early to call this. i'm sure there are, but it's not disillusioned voters who call an election. i can't see any of the party leaderships being enthusiastic about an election in the next couple of years and given that the life of this parliament is fixed by law then it will be even harder than usual to call an election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 It does help if you have a multi-million pound party electoral machine helping you out. Don't you think? That's an interesting question, because a single independent candidate should be able to get out there and communicate one to one with voters. There are endless ways of engaging with people these days. With current levels of voter disaffection (see Bradford) I'd be surprised if an independent acting locally, on matters of interest to local people couldn't make serious inroads into the voter base of the established parties. We might see a few shocks at national and local elections in coming years. How about a Sheffield Council run by a coalition of independents? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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