UK manufacturing figures deal hammer blow to recovery hopes

[polo mint]

Your last post links the Daily Mail as a source:hihi:.

 

At least my links have proven sources with links and direct quotes of sources within the storey to bodies like Markit Economics the world’s largest private sector producer of economic data and Moody’s Analytics etc.

 

My last post quoted the BBC actually. It is a fact that unemployment is falling. It is also a fact that unemployment was higher when Labour left power in 2010 than it had been when they took over in 1997. I fully expect unemployment to have dropped considerably by the next election as the current government make the best of clearing up the dire financial position they took over from Gordon Brown.

[I1L2T3]

It doesn’t look too much to worry about at the moment and is still over 6 billion higher than when they came to power.

 

2009-10 144,881

2010-11 153,491

2011-12 150,988

 

I would expect the current trend to be down. A lot depends on the gamble with the 50p rate. That could be offset by the change to the bands for the 40p rate at a push.

 

The odd this is this - wouldn't Tories want lower taxes anyway?

[NorthernStar]

My last post quoted the BBC actually. It is a fact that unemployment is falling. It is also a fact that unemployment was higher when Labour left power in 2010 than it had been when they took over in 1997. I fully expect unemployment to have dropped considerably by the next election as the current government make the best of clearing up the dire financial position they took over from Gordon Brown.

 

But in my last link Melanie Bowler, economist at Moody’s Analytics, says there is much behind the figures and expects the situation to reverse.

 

“The underlying data show a massive 46.7% q/q and 28.9% y/y increase in the three months to May in the number of people in government supported training and employment programmes. This may go a long way to explaining the downtick in the unemployment rate. And given the temporary nature of such programmes and relatively insecurity associated with them does not suggest the U.K. labour market has fundamentally improved. The previous downtick reported in the unemployment rate in March was almost fully due to an increase in part time employment rather than showing a fundamental improvement which an increase in full time employment is associated with".

[polo mint]

But in my last link Melanie Bowler, economist at Moody’s Analytics, says there is much behind the figures and expects the situation to reverse.

 

“The underlying data show a massive 46.7% q/q and 28.9% y/y increase in the three months to May in the number of people in government supported training and employment programmes. This may go a long way to explaining the downtick in the unemployment rate. And given the temporary nature of such programmes and relatively insecurity associated with them does not suggest the U.K. labour market has fundamentally improved. The previous downtick reported in the unemployment rate in March was almost fully due to an increase in part time employment rather than showing a fundamental improvement which an increase in full time employment is associated with".

 

People can expect a lot. I'm sure if you are determined enough you can find someone who will say that they expect exactly what you require politically. It doesn't however alter the fact that despite many public sector jobs being cut the t figures show more people actually in work. Compared to the Eurozone as a whole we are doing well. No one denies times are tough but we are in a better place than many of our rivals and are atracting some spectacular investments particularly from the motor industry which sees the UK as a place for their next generation of cars.

[I1L2T3]

There are interesting things going on with the economy. A lot of key indicators suggest that the economy is tanking but some things are contradictory to that picture and appear to offer some hope - overall unemployment isn't surging like it should be and there is some anecdotal evidence of reasonable levels of business confidence.

 

ONS figures here:

 

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/key-figures/index.html

 

IMO we are heading down the tubes. I'd be delighted if I was proved wrong over the next couple of years though.

[NorthernStar]

People can expect a lot. I'm sure if you are determined enough you can find someone who will say that they expect exactly what you require politically. It doesn't however alter the fact that despite many public sector jobs being cut the t figures show more people actually in work. Compared to the Eurozone as a whole we are doing well. No one denies times are tough but we are in a better place than many of our rivals and are atracting some spectacular investments particularly from the motor industry which sees the UK as a place for their next generation of cars.

 

So how would you explain the fall in apparent unemployment while our economy is actually shrinking?

 

As for the car manufacturing in the UK, this is great news but it is bucking the trend.

[MrSmith]

There are interesting things going on with the economy. A lot of key indicators suggest that the economy is tanking but some things are contradictory to that picture and appear to offer some hope - overall unemployment isn't surging like it should be and there is some anecdotal evidence of reasonable levels of business confidence.

 

ONS figures here:

 

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/key-figures/index.html

 

IMO we are heading down the tubes. I'd be delighted if I was proved wrong over the next couple of years though.

 

I can’t see it being that interesting, the economy will stagnate for years, maybe going up and down slightly, much like Japan, housing will stagnate going up and down slightly, with an overall trend for down, until we are back to the long term trend for housing costs and growth, interest rates will stay low for a few more years and will hopefully be used to stop private borrowing and house price growth should they start to rise.

The ideal economy would be for negative growth for the foreseeable future with a slow decline in the size of the population.

[polo mint]

So how would you explain the fall in apparent unemployment while our economy is actually shrinking?

 

As for the car manufacturing in the UK, this is great news but it is bucking the trend.

 

That's pretty easy to explain. The financial sector is still suffering from the collapse 4 years ago and not turning in massive profits. Many of the banking malpractices that were happening over the past decade and now coming home to roost and the banks are repaying massive sums that had appeared previously in their top line. But many folks are setting up small businesses and/or taking on a few extra staff. This is creating employment without necessarily making the same huge contribution to GNP that an investment banker might.

[MrSmith]

, your positivity in the face of gloomy forecasts from the overwhelming majority of economists is quite remarkable.

 

UK manufacturing contracts at fastest rate in three years

UK employment rate rises

 

There's no reason to fear a stagnant or shrinking economy, hopefully it will decline for years.

[mj.scuba]

There's no reason to fear a stagnant or shrinking economy, hopefully it will decline for years.

 

I don't see why you would think a long period of recession (shrinking) would be good, people losing their jobs, higher welfare bill, fewer tax receipts.....but, a stagnant economy is not necessarily bad, a maintenance of the status quo. For some reason, we've become conditioned to expect a limitless period of growth, like the economy can just grow and grow and grow indefinitely, a bit of a false promise we've been fed I'm afraid, especially considering a lot of the growth of the last decade and a half has been fueled by debt.