Cyclone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I was lead to believe that we are short of workers, hence the high immigration figures. If we are short of workers it makes perfect sense to encourage the active over 65’s to continue working. Short of some skilled workers, but under supplied in some job sectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSmith Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Short of some skilled workers, but under supplied in some job sectors. So presumably some of the over 65’s will be skilled and staying in work won’t deprive someone of a job that doesn’t have the skills anyway. And the over 65’s tend not to work in McDonalds which doesn’t require many skills. So either way its immigration and not over 65's that have made it harder for some people to find work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crayfish Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So either way its immigration and not over 65's that have made it harder for some people to find work. No. Economic contraction has reduced the number of jobs (skilled and unskilled) available. Immigration of skilled workers is generally a good thing for the economy. Because immigrants are generally young, this is vital to reduce the impact of the demographic crisis we are starting to face. Immigration of asylum seekers and illegals obviously does not have economic benefits and probably does not have a net positive social impact either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSmith Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 No. Economic contraction has reduced the number of jobs (skilled and unskilled) available. Immigration of skilled workers is generally a good thing for the economy. Because immigrants are generally young, this is vital to reduce the impact of the demographic crisis we are starting to face. Immigration of asylum seekers and illegals obviously does not have economic benefits and probably does not have a net positive social impact either. A reasonable argument if it was true, But The economy hasn’t contracted, it just hasn’t grown has fast has resent years, which is a good thing. The economy is stronger now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 More people are employed now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 Government tax receipts are higher now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 All of which should have lead to lower unemployment, but it didn’t. Youth unemployment was a growing concern throughout the past decade. Unsustainable immigration was a growing concern throughout the past decade. Net immigration into the UK remains higher than the amount of Jobs being created. Result more unemployed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crayfish Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 A reasonable argument if it was true, But The economy hasn’t contracted, it just hasn’t grown has fast has resent years, which is a good thing. The economy is stronger now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 More people are employed now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 Government tax receipts are higher now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 All of which should have lead to lower unemployment, but it didn’t. Youth unemployment was a growing concern throughout the past decade. Unsustainable immigration was a growing concern throughout the past decade. Net immigration into the UK remains higher than the amount of Jobs being created. Result more unemployed. Actually, my argument was reasonable because it is true. 1. We're down nearly 5% in GDP after adjusting for inflation compared with Q1 2008. Data: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/nov/25/gdp-uk-1948-growth-economy 2. As a percentage of either total population or working age population, the proportion of people in employment has consistently been lower since 2008 compared to pre-recession values. Data: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/interactive/2009/jun/22/unemployment-and-employment-statistics-recession Note that immigration is no higher now than it was in 2004, or 2005, or 2007, all years with lower unemployment than now. Note also that immigration creates demand and therefore jobs. 3. Tax receipts are higher now than they were in 2009 and 2010, but lower than they were in 2007, 2008, and 2011. Data: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/apr/25/tax-receipts-1963 In conclusion, immigration of skilled people is not a problem and does not correlate with unemployment, nor can it reasonably be suspected of causing unemployment. The decreased strength of the economy does correlate with unemployment and there are predictable mechanisms by which this correlation could imply causality. Again, this is highly distinct from the immigration of unskilled people such as asylum seekers, or illegal immigration, which I believe are generally undesirable from an economic viewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 So presumably some of the over 65’s will be skilled and staying in work won’t deprive someone of a job that doesn’t have the skills anyway. And the over 65’s tend not to work in McDonalds which doesn’t require many skills. So either way its immigration and not over 65's that have made it harder for some people to find work. It's not the skilled that are finding it harder to find work though, and unskilled immigrants have no advantage in taking low skilled work over a local. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 A reasonable argument if it was true, But The economy hasn’t contracted, it just hasn’t grown has fast has resent years, which is a good thing. The economy is stronger now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 More people are employed now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 Government tax receipts are higher now than in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010' 2011 Do you have data that isn't represented in this graph http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:GBR&dl=en&hl=en&q=graph+uk+gdp#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:GBR&ifdim=region&tstart=966898800000&tend=1313967600000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false Which doesn't happen to agree with your assessment. In 2012 we know that we are not making any large gains on 2011. And in 2011 the GDP of the country was at the same level as 2006 (lower than 2007 and 2008). It is higher than it was in 2009 and 2010, but hasn't fully recovered from the previous highest point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSmith Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Actually, my argument was reasonable because it is true. 1. We're down nearly 5% in GDP after adjusting for inflation compared with Q1 2008. Data: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/nov/25/gdp-uk-1948-growth-economy 2. As a percentage of either total population or working age population, the proportion of people in employment has consistently been lower since 2008 compared to pre-recession values. Data: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/interactive/2009/jun/22/unemployment-and-employment-statistics-recession Note that immigration is no higher now than it was in 2004, or 2005, or 2007, all years with lower unemployment than now. Note also that immigration creates demand and therefore jobs. 3. Tax receipts are higher now than they were in 2009 and 2010, but lower than they were in 2007, 2008, and 2011. Data: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/apr/25/tax-receipts-1963 In conclusion, immigration of skilled people is not a problem and does not correlate with unemployment, nor can it reasonably be suspected of causing unemployment. The decreased strength of the economy does correlate with unemployment and there are predictable mechanisms by which this correlation could imply causality. Again, this is highly distinct from the immigration of unskilled people such as asylum seekers, or illegal immigration, which I believe are generally undesirable from an economic viewpoint. Percentage of population in work is lower because the population has increased due to immigration; the amount of people coming here exceeds the amount of jobs being created. So even though there are more jobs and more people in work, there are more people out of work because of the population increase. Tax receipts in Billions 2006-07 486 2007-08 516. 2008-09 508. 2009-10 477.8 2010-11 528.9 2011-12 550.6 http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/tax_receipts/tax-nic-receipts-info-analysis.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSmith Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's not the skilled that are finding it harder to find work though, and unskilled immigrants have no advantage in taking low skilled work over a local. No it’s the unskilled that are finding impossible to get the skills because it’s much easier for an employer to employ an immigrant with the skills. You are right the unskilled don’t have a disadvantage against the unskilled immigrants, it’s just the fact that more unskilled immigrants arrive here than the jobs which are being created. Higher unemployment is therefore inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrSmith Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Do you have data that isn't represented in this graph http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:GBR&dl=en&hl=en&q=graph+uk+gdp#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:GBR&ifdim=region&tstart=966898800000&tend=1313967600000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false Which doesn't happen to agree with your assessment. In 2012 we know that we are not making any large gains on 2011. And in 2011 the GDP of the country was at the same level as 2006 (lower than 2007 and 2008). It is higher than it was in 2009 and 2010, but hasn't fully recovered from the previous highest point. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/data_gdp_fig.htm Money GDP2 Cash £ million 2005-06 1,284,547 2006-07 1,350,438 2007-08 1,432,887 2008-09 1,422,290 2009-10 1,415,654 2010-11 1,478,318 2011-12 1,527,675 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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