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Turkey and Syria : an old fashioned proxy war ?


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They said that of Libya too, and look what happened. The hardware is only as good as the personnel manning it ;)

The Turks don't need to go anywhere near Damascus, they can just interdict airspace around the country (and have the flying tankers to permit that). Though I suppose they'd try early, if only to try to take out the C-C-C infrastructure from the off.

All goes without saying, but I'd expect cruise missiles and long-range attack chopper missions to clear a path through the AA. Std modus operandi these days.

 

The Turks have got to be weary of it all right, after losing a plane earlier this year.

 

Turkey couldn`t do it alone.Without NATO their planes will fall out of the sky like confetti.

 

But you have to remember Syria has one of the largest stockpiles of chemical weapons on earth.What would a cornered rat do as a last resort when the generals have already said they would be willing to use them to defend their country if needs be.I wouldn`t like to live around the middle east.

 

Turkey has just mightily peed Russia off as well with the commandeering of the jet they forced to land with Russian citizens on board.

 

The press is Russia have done nothing but condemn Turkey.The Turkish government is doing itself no favours trying to gain popular support for any intervention in Syria.

 

Turkey wants NATO soldiers to die in Syria not its own.

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Turkey has just mightily peed Russia off as well with the commandeering of the jet they forced to land with Russian citizens on board.

 

The press is Russia have done nothing but condemn Turkey.The Turkish government is doing itself no favours trying to gain popular support for any intervention in Syria.

The jet was transporting armaments and military equipment for the Syrian Gvt as well.

 

Undeclared on the plane manifest and in breach of a quite a number of international air transport statutes (for civilian flights), since it was in Turkish airspace. Turkey was entirely in its right to force-land and inspect the airliner (not saying it was wise, just that it was legally justified to do so).

 

More ominously, Turkey has now moved 250 tanks nearer the Syrian border. More grief to come from Russia, then.

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The jet was transporting armaments and munitions for the Syrian Gvt as well.

 

Undeclared on the plane manifest and in breach of a quite a number of international air transport statutes (for civilian flights), since it was in Turkish airspace. Turkey was entirely in its right to force-land and inspect the airliner (not saying it was wise, just that it was legally justified to do so).

 

More ominously, Turkey has now moved 250 tanks nearer the Syrian border.

 

Was it though.Why have they not shown what was seized if they have it.

Eye witnesses said there was nothing.Why did they injure the pilot and try to force him to sign a document that said it was an emergency landed instead of being forced down..

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19918858

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Was it though.
I'm more inclined to believe the Turks than the Syrians or the Russians in this matter, but feel free to doubt either or both.

 

I mean, the Russians themselves are confused about what was on the plane or not:

Russia's state arms export agency Rosoboronexport said it had no information about the cargo and denied it had any connection with the flight or anything on board.

 

On Friday the Russian broadsheet Kommersant, quoting sources close to Russian arms exporters, reported that there were 12 crates containing parts for Syrian air defence radars on board.

EDIT, in a belated reply to this:

Turkey wants NATO soldiers to die in Syria not its own.
Turkey has a looong border with Syria: it knows full well that if things do kick off, its soldiers will bear the brunt of it. With or without NATO. Turkey still has a (long) national service, and it's a 'proper one' in khakis as well, so isn't short of cannon fodder if it needs it.
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I'm more inclined to believe the Turks than the Syrians or the Russians in this matter, but feel free to doubt either or both.

 

I mean, the Russians themselves are confused about what was on the plane or not:EDIT, in a belated reply to this:

Turkey has a looong border with Syria: it knows full well that if things do kick off, its soldiers will bear the brunt of it. With or without NATO. Turkey still has a (long) national service, and it's a 'proper one' in khakis as well, so isn't short of cannon fodder if it needs it.

 

The Turks will do anything to get NATO involved ever since Assad gave the Kurds an autonomous region in Northern Syria 2 months ago effectively giving the PKK a safe haven to launch attacks on Turkish interests.

 

I don`t believe anyone would force a jet down for radar parts unless it was a provocative stance to force a retaliation.

 

They still have not shown what was seized.Even Erdogan has changed his mind a few times.At first it was Ammo and Munitions now its radar parts.Surely they must know the difference between them.

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The Turks will do anything to get NATO involved
Goes without saying that they will call on NATO members if and when the time comes, though in fairness they don't need to "do anything" as such, since NATO is already involved: they were first shelled by Syria, an act of war, and treaty obligations kicked in since that time. It will be more interesting to see how Western powers wriggle out of them at the material time.

I don`t believe anyone would force a jet down for radar parts unless it was a provocative stance to force a retaliation.
You might want to deny them the parts...if you are planning aerial strikes ;)

They still have not shown what was seized.Even Erdogan has changed his mind a few times.At first it was Ammo and Munitions now its radar parts.Surely they must know the difference between them.
I've no doubt. By the same token, diplomacy and even realpolitik have their do's and dont's.

 

The jet thing is either a posturing side-show, or a very clever maskirovka by either side (we'll eventually get to know which ;)): the stakes are still being piled on the table, it's too early for a call.

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Turkey has been arming and training the rebels.
You mean, like Saudi, Qatar, and so many other NATO proxies? Not to mention the elephant in the room, the US coordinating these via the CIA with Obama's blessing? (Grauniad linky, but there are countless others confirming, across the entire political spectrum)

I think that would be first classed as an act of war before a shell landed on Turkey so Turkey are the aggressors in this scenario.
It's more difficult to prove the above, than a Syrian shell crater on the wrong side of the border ;)

I just hope British soldiers don`t have to die because of it.
I'll second that, all the same.
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some real nonsense has been posted here. Turkey is perhaps the major Middle Eastern power and yet some of you guys don't even realise it. Syria would be nothing to the Turks. And all that bull**** in the media, about Syria and Turkey being former allies. Gimme a break. They've detested each other for more centuries, than I care to remember.

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some real nonsense has been posted here. Turkey is perhaps the major Middle Eastern power and yet some of you guys don't even realise it. Syria would be nothing to the Turks. And all that bull**** in the media, about Syria and Turkey being former allies. Gimme a break. They've detested each other for more centuries, than I care to remember.

 

Of course we had nothing but plaudits and backslaps for Syria (during the more repressive regime of Bashar's dad that is).

 

I think that basically Assad is boxed in by his own people. The Saudis have succeeded in turning a peaceful, pro-democracy movement into a fully fledged civil war. That the Saudi's ex ambassador to the US features prominently in that effort will come as no surprise to anyone.

 

What was a broadly secular, repressive middle eastern dictatorship will likely become a broadly religious repressive middle eastern theocracy, a bit more like Saudi. Well worth the riyals.

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