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Rotherham by election predictions


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My understanding of an independent is someone independent of a political party or organisation. It's a catch-all for anyone not representing a party regardless of what label (or none) you describe yourself as. Bristow had no party or organisation so he must have been an independent. I've never thought you have to call yourself an independent to be an independent. If he wasn't an independent what was he apart from a convicted criminal?

 

Thats how I thought it worked too. I've never seen anything other than either a political party next to a candidate or the word Independent.

 

This is why I think he failed to gain much support. When people come to mark their paper and the only information they have is the guys name, they aren't going to vote for him compared to names next to well known political parties. I would guess UKIP have gained due to the drop in conservative support and Labours gains have been at the cost of Lib dem votes.

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Thats how I thought it worked too. I've never seen anything other than either a political party next to a candidate or the word Independent.

 

 

That is why I think that this case is different. The way I understand it, Clint refused to divulge his allegiance when he stood. That is different to being independent. He was listed as "no description" before the ballot. I notice that the press are now writing Independent, so I take the point.

 

Either way, most people knew who he was and what he stood for. They could hardly have failed to, given the press coverage. Maybe Rotherham folks prefer their far right candidates to be full fat BNP members.

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We can probably expect the Conservatives to beef up their immigration policies rather than leave it to UKIP. There have been a few stories over the last few days about the recent failures of the Immigration Service to stop students overstaying their welcome. At the same time student applications are down 9%. It's an open door for tougher immigration rules.

 

The problem they have is that the next major immigration issue for the country, namely the removal of restrictions on Bulgaria and Romania next year, they have no control over and people know it. UKIP will play it to their advantage.

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Remarkable. You should have your tail between your legs and be feeling very humble and grateful to the electorate after your thief of an MP caused the by-election with his fraud.

 

 

Hi Tone, a great result for Labour who despite the rightwing media campaign to talk up the Tories of UKIP, Labour actually INCREASED it's share of the vote!

You must be gutted with the ConDems performance, the LibDems got just 2% of the vote! :)

 

---------- Post added 01-12-2012 at 07:49 ----------

 

 

I hadn't forecast UKIP or Respect to win, just that I wouldn't be surprised if one of them did after Bradford West and the recent adoption row in Rotherham. I was surprised UKIP didn't do better there and cut the majority more but Labour's share of the vote is still down on 2005.

 

What do you think of your MP, Mr Clegg, and your People's Leader, Mr Miliband, getting all chummy together over Leveson? The BBC is reporting "Labour leader Ed Miliband has joined Mr Clegg in supporting a new press law." See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20551634. Can you keep your breakfast down?

 

 

Why pick out 2005? Labour increased it's share of the vote from the 2010 GE, as I said in my response to Tone.

 

Lab's vote also went up by 15% and 9% in the Middlesbrough and Croyden North by-elections, tremendous results and pointing to landslide in 2015!

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Why pick out 2005? Labour increased it's share of the vote from the 2010 GE, as I said in my response to Tone.

 

Lab's vote also went up by 15% and 9% in the Middlesbrough and Croyden North by-elections, tremendous results and pointing to landslide in 2015!

 

In 2010 Labour got its 2nd worst national vote since the war. So 2010 isn't a good starting point to use to say that an improvement on that is a great success. I chose 2005 because that's the last general election Labour won. On Thursday Labour in Rotherham was less than 2% better than 2010. Admittedly the result was skewed by the adoption issue but it wasn't a good result.

 

All 3 seats were Labour in 2010 so piling up votes in already safe seats doesn't point to anything.

 

You make the mistake all 3 main political parties make. You want to win elections without saying what will happen if you do. I haven't heard any detail yet of what Labour's policies are except that the cuts won't be as bad as under the coalition.

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Hi Tone, a great result for Labour who despite the rightwing media campaign to talk up the Tories of UKIP, Labour actually INCREASED it's share of the vote!

You must be gutted with the ConDems performance, the LibDems got just 2% of the vote! :)

 

The convenience of statistics eh? The reality is that the Labour majority you are crowing about is half of the actual votes cast by real people rather than aggregate percentages of a terrible turnout.

 

Denis McShane majority in 2010 = 10,462

Sarah Champion majority in 2012 = 5,318

 

Champion actually polled fewer votes in total (9,966) than McShane's majority.

 

However you look at it, that's a terrible result for Labour unless you only care about hanging on to power - which we all know is all you really care about.

 

You must be gutted with the ConDems performance, the LibDems got just 2% of the vote!

You continue to labour under the misapprehension that because I think that your party is utterly bereft of talent and ideas and is to blame for the crap we're now in, that I must be an affirmed supporter of another party. I'm not - your lot is just unfit to govern.

 

Sometimes it's better to find some humility in the situation rather than bragging right. This is especially so when your MP was sacked for fraud.

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The convenience of statistics eh? The reality is that the Labour majority you are crowing about is half of the actual votes cast by real people rather than aggregate percentages of a terrible turnout.

 

Denis McShane majority in 2010 = 10,462

Sarah Champion majority in 2012 = 5,318

 

Champion actually polled fewer votes in total (9,966) than McShane's majority.

 

However you look at it, that's a terrible result for Labour unless you only care about hanging on to power - which we all know is all you really care about.

 

You continue to labour under the misapprehension that because I think that your party is utterly bereft of talent and ideas and is to blame for the crap we're now in, that I must be an affirmed supporter of another party. I'm not - your lot is just unfit to govern.

 

Sometimes it's better to find some humility in the situation rather than bragging right. This is especially so when your MP was sacked for fraud.

 

 

 

Oh dear Tone, you seem to be taking this very badly, atleast you haven't disappeared for 6 months like you did after the last time the Lib Dems were trounced. Sour grapes....much?;)

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