wednesday1 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Following the recent by-elections, the Conservative vote fell -11% in Rotherham whilst UKIP's rose by 15%, in Middlesbrough the Cons vote fell by 13% whilst UKIP's rose by 8%. In the south (Croyden North), the Cons vote was down 7% whilst UKIP was up only 4%. UKIP came 2nd in both the Middlesbrough and Rotherham, whilst taking 3rd place behind both Lab and the Cons in Croyden. If so, with UKIP attracting so much support from the Cons, will the Cons ever be able to claim to be a national party again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenRivers Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 The cons will become more Eurosceptic when they start losing out in opinion polls to UKIP, when their nice cushy MP jobs are under threat especially in marginals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sibon Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 UKIP need some sensible economic policies if they want to be taken seriously. At the moment they are filling the "none of the above" role that was previously fulfilled by the Lib Dems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vague_Boy Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 At the moment they are filling the "none of the above" role that was previously fulfilled by the Lib Dems. The old Liberal Party had moments like this (remember "go back to your constituencies and prepare for government"?). Likewise the old SDP seemed set to be the new third party at one point. By-elections are rarely much of a guide to how people vote in a General Election. I would suspect that Labour and the Conservatives will still get the lion's share of the vote between them next time, with Labour most likely being returned to power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 UKIP are never going to take seats in large urban areas. They may be the second or third party, no better. There's plenty of blue on the map in rural areas of the north. That is where Ukip need to target seats. Is Ukip support growing stronger in traditionally Tory more rural areas too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxmaximus Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Following the recent by-elections, the Conservative vote fell -11% in Rotherham whilst UKIP's rose by 15%, in Middlesbrough the Cons vote fell by 13% whilst UKIP's rose by 8%. In the south (Croyden North), the Cons vote was down 7% whilst UKIP was up only 4%. UKIP came 2nd in both the Middlesbrough and Rotherham, whilst taking 3rd place behind both Lab and the Cons in Croyden. If so, with UKIP attracting so much support from the Cons, will the Cons ever be able to claim to be a national party again? More blue than red would show them to be a national party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael_W Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 NO ...... wishful thinking from the op IMHO The Cons and Labour have always had some interchangeable voters, UKIP have probably gained some voters from Cons, Labour and Lib dem ... people are looking for alternatives because all these parties fail the majority of people in this country one way or the other. I'm astounded by the blind support that Labour gets in the North, people should educate themselves a bit politically, only then they might see Labour for what they are now ... there is little difference between them and the Tories ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wednesday1 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 More blue than red would show them to be a national party. Your map is from 2010, I'm talking about the likely outcome after the next election, MrSmith. ---------- Post added 01-12-2012 at 13:05 ---------- UKIP need some sensible economic policies if they want to be taken seriously. At the moment they are filling the "none of the above" role that was previously fulfilled by the Lib Dems. Most commentators seem to agree that the national swing to Labour has come for dissillusioned Lib Dem voters who have returned to Labour (many since the days of the SDP) in revulsion at their tie-up with the Cons, whereas UKIP's growth seems to have come at the expense of the Cons and other right-wing parties such as the BNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxmaximus Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Your map is from 2010, I'm talking about the likely outcome after the next election. The map will look much the same after the next election with Conservative and labour taking most of the seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANGELFIRE1 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 If Farage pushes the get out of Europe idea and the reduction of "incommers" into the Country, it's hard to see how UKIP can fail to prosper. Doubtful they will ever run the Country, but they may replace the lib/dems as the third party. Tory/UKIP sounds ok to me after the next election. Angel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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