Apophis 2026 2.7% apocalypse

[Guest sibon]

You should check what the chances are of us hitting the asteroid, before you relax totally:)

[barleycorn]

Apophis is an asteroid. It passed Earth at the weekend and it turned out to be bigger than previously thought. It's about half a mile across.

 

When it returns in 2029 it will be much closer, an estimated 18,000 miles away. That's less than the circumference of the Earth, but there is a 2.7% chance that it will collide with Earth.

 

If it collides, the human race may be wiped out.

 

Makes you think, doesn't it?

 

I don't know where you're getting your data but most of it is wrong and the bits that are right are 8 years out of date.

 

The observations that predicted a 2.7% chance of striking the Earth in 2029 were made in 2004, at this time its size was estimated to be 270m. Later, more accurate predictions knocked the likelihood of a collision in 2029 to 0.004%.

The resent pass has allowed for more accurate determination of its size to 325m, that's a quarter of a mile not half a mile. In 2029 it will pass 36,000Km away, not 18,000.

The impact risk in 2036 is a mere 1 in 7,143,000.

 

http://news.discovery.com/space/asteroids-meteors-meteorites/asteroid-apophis-just-got-supersized-130109.htm

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Science/Herschel_intercepts_asteroid_Apophis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#2013_refinement

 

jb

[Cyclone]

This is barely worth mentioning as a potential hazard as there are around 10 other asteroids with a greater probability of hitting earth. Don't worry by the way, the percentages of any of these asteroids hitting are extremely low

 

Low but higher than 2.7%...

 

What's the combined probability of an impact then, multiple events at a >2.7% chance of occurring quite rapidly stacks up into being very likely that one will occur... Combinatorial probabilities and all that.

 

---------- Post added 11-01-2013 at 12:21 ----------

 

I don't know where you're getting your data but most of it is wrong and the bits that are right are 8 years out of date.

 

The observations that predicted a 2.7% chance of striking the Earth in 2029 were made in 2004, at this time its size was estimated to be 270m. Later, more accurate predictions knocked the likelihood of a collision in 2029 to 0.004%.

The resent pass has allowed for more accurate determination of its size to 325m, that's a quarter of a mile not half a mile. In 2029 it will pass 36,000Km away, not 18,000.

The impact risk in 2036 is a mere 1 in 7,143,000.

 

http://news.discovery.com/space/asteroids-meteors-meteorites/asteroid-apophis-just-got-supersized-130109.htm

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Science/Herschel_intercepts_asteroid_Apophis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis#2013_refinement

 

jb

 

Careful with your units there, Tony said 18k miles, you said 36k kilometres.

[barleycorn]

Low but higher than 2.7%...

 

What's the combined probability of an impact then, multiple events at a >2.7% chance of occurring quite rapidly stacks up into being very likely that one will occur... Combinatorial probabilities and all that.

 

---------- Post added 11-01-2013 at 12:21 ----------

 

 

Careful with your units there, Tony said 18k miles, you said 36k kilometres.

 

Ah yes, my bad. Still 36,000Km is 22,369 miles not 18,000.

 

jb

[Vague_Boy]

Will it return to us, or will we return to it?

 

Both (as neither the earth nor the asteroid are stationary in space).

 

---------- Post added 11-01-2013 at 13:54 ----------

 

If its going to collied with us then Bruce Willis will sort it.

 

That was my first thought, but in 2029 he'll be 74 years old.

 

Ben Affleck will be a slightly sprightlier 57.

[Tony]

I don't know where you're getting your data

 

but most of it is wrong and the bits that are right are 8 years out of date.

 

The impact risk in 2036 is a mere 1 in 7,143,000.

 

NASA.

 

Yesterday.

 

Double the chances of winning the Lottery. Have you bought a ticket this weekend?

[Guest sibon]

Both (as neither the earth nor the asteroid are stationary in space).

 

 

That rather depends upon how you define stationary.

[Anarchon]

The resent pass has allowed for more accurate determination of its size to 325m

 

 

To put this into perspective, the asteroid that is suspected of causing the Cretaceous extinction event 65million years ago and created the Chicxulub crater on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico was around 10k in diameter when it hit the ground - maybe larger. If in the very unlikely event that 99942 Apophis does impact Earth, it would certainly cause considerable damage to the environment.

[day-break]

god almighty another grim reader posting...chill out ..why do you some people only want to drag folk down with doom and gloom?

 

 

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[Mikes10]

Whenever there's an anouncement of an asteroid or meteor near-miss, I always wonder

if the powers that be would actually tell us peasants of an impending collision.

Surely you would want to keep the population in blissful ignorance.

 

This particular space rock only has to have the lightest kiss on a similar object and

it may well be on a collision coarse with our little planet with no possibility if

missing us.