UKIP are on to give the major parties a good kicking.

[Jeffrey Shaw]

You don't get MPs by coming second everywhere.

But one might well come first once one's achieved the 'coming second everywhere'.

[poppet2]

To be fair that is 25% if of UKIP voters not voters in general. You'll probably find over 25% of Conservative Party members are unhappy with David Cameron.

 

If there was proportional representation, and this was a general election, that 25% of the UKIP vote would have translated itself into 100 MPs in the House of Commons.

[WeX]

To be fair that is 25% if of UKIP voters not voters in general. You'll probably find over 25% of Conservative Party members are unhappy with David Cameron.

 

yep but the train of through coming from the usual suspects has been that UKIP will take tory voters only because they are so unhappy with the coalition. The truth is the majority of UKIP voters are doing so because ALL the main parties are not addressing their concerns.

[Longcol]

UKIP and the Torys could easily form the next coalition while Labour look to be becoming the 4th party in Uk politics.

 

What evidence is this based on?

 

I tend to agree with this guy;

 

http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showpost.php?p=9758739&postcount=3

 

"And for the record, every incumbent government loses out to local council elections. Its how it works and no indication of how the country would vote come a general election."

 

Strange how he's got the same username as you..............................

[WeX]

What evidence is this based on?

 

I tend to agree with this guy;

 

http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showpost.php?p=9758739&postcount=3

 

"And for the record, every incumbent government loses out to local council elections. Its how it works and no indication of how the country would vote come a general election."

 

Strange how he's got the same username as you..............................

 

Hey thats me

 

What evidence, none I'm afraid, its just a gut feeling that things in a few years could be very different. Especially if it comes down to the wire. If Labour come in a close second and are looking to secure the Libs as a coalition partner, UKIP could well be kingmakers in the next parliament. Lets face it, UKIP and the torys have much more in common than the Libs and the Tory's.

[altus]

If there was proportional representation, and this was a general election, that 25% of the UKIP vote would have translated itself into 100 MPs in the House of Commons.

 

If this had been a general election the majority of that 25% would have looked at UKIPs proposed £120Bn annual increase in deficit and decided to vote for someone else. Even Gordon Brown was better at sums than Nigel Farage.

[WeX]

If this had been a general election the majority of that 25% would have looked at UKIPs proposed £120Bn annual increase in deficit and decided to vote for someone else. Even Gordon Brown was better at sums than Nigel Farage.

 

That and their opposition to Gay Marriage.

[altus]

yep but the train of through coming from the usual suspects has been that UKIP will take tory voters only because they are so unhappy with the coalition. The truth is the majority of UKIP voters are doing so because ALL the main parties are not addressing their concerns.

 

That's certainly true, although I think the Conservative suffer disproportionately because many of UKIP's 'policies' are more likely to appeal to Conservative voters.

[evildrneil]

Thursdays shire county results comp to last time:

 

Con -9 points

 

Lab +7

 

UKIP-BNP +15

 

Lib Dem -11

 

(From Independent)

 

The results though not great for Labour were not the unmitigated disaster they were for the Lib dems and Cons. The Lib Dems even lost a seat in their capital of Yeovil to Ukip.

 

+ Lab held South Shields in the by-election with very similar share of vote to last GE of 50.5% comp to 52%, therefore remained unchanged by Ukip surge. Lib Dem vote in South Shields went down from 14.2% to a lost deposit.

 

How it is possible from these results,to conclude that the Ukip surge poses more threat to Lab is not obvious to me!

 

It was fairly clearly stated - at this point in the cycle you would expect the Cons and Lib Dems vote to collapse and Labour to pick them up. The Cons and Lib Dems didn't actually collapse as much as many expected and Labour's showing was really very poor with many of the votes lost by Cons / Lib Dems being picked up by UKIP instead. So it could easily be argued that rather than turning out for Labour people are turning out for UKIP which would say that they are more of a threat to Labour than Cons / Lib Dems.

[I1L2T3]

Hey thats me

 

What evidence, none I'm afraid, its just a gut feeling that things in a few years could be very different. Especially if it comes down to the wire. If Labour come in a close second and are looking to secure the Libs as a coalition partner, UKIP could well be kingmakers in the next parliament. Lets face it, UKIP and the torys have much more in common than the Libs and the Tory's.

 

UKIP's survival is dependent on them differentiating themselves from the Tories.

 

I think Tories are falling into the trap of thinking it's all OK because UKIP are just another right wing party. They're making a huge mistake.