Ed Miliband Has Wrecked The Labour Party.

[Happ Hazzard]

I honestly can't see Labour winning, no matter what the polls say. If they do win, then it says that people will vote purely on the basis of what benefits they will get, regardless of what party is the best long term for the country. Which would be very worrying IMO.

[blake]

Miliband’s personal ratings are dismal. From electoral history neither the leader’s standing nor the opposition’s edge in the polls suggests he will win an outright majority.

 

 

I don't agree with Boulton here because he must surely know that Thatchers 1979 ratings were far behind Callaghan's and she got more votes in that election than she ever got again, when yes she did have a better personal rating than either of her opponents did. He is also ignoring that all three of the party leaders have negative ratings which is something new. Miliband just has a more negative rating than Cameron does. However Cameron's rating is also negative. Basically, the jolly old British public doesn't like any of them.

 

if UKIP do surge in the Tory/Lab marginals then there is no doubt about it. The Tories will be in trouble.

[Happ Hazzard]

I do not think that UKIP are taking nearly as many votes away from the Tories as they are from Labour.

[blake]

I do not think that UKIP are taking nearly as many votes away from the Tories as they are from Labour.

 

don't agree with that at all although yes UKIP will take some votes from Labour. Just not as many as they will likely take from the Tories.

 

the key really is the Lab/Tory marginals where almost all of them also have a Liberal vote which is certain to lessen. Where will they go. Some may not vote at all. And some of them will also go for UKIP. But of those that switch, my guess is more of them will go Red, than Blue.

[Manlinose]

I don't agree with Boulton here because he must surely know that Thatchers 1979 ratings were far behind Callaghan's and she got more votes in that election than she ever got again, when yes she did have a better personal rating than either of her opponents did. He is also ignoring that all three of the party leaders have negative ratings which is something new. Miliband just has a more negative rating than Cameron does. However Cameron's rating is also negative. Basically, the jolly old British public doesn't like any of them.

 

to be fair, the column was about the current state of the Lib Dems, so he wasn't really commenting on the conservative position generally, but he did start off by saying

 

None of the three main parties has much to cheer about as they start the political year. With just 18 months to go until the next general election, the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats are not noticeably united, confident or content with their leadership.

 

and also said

 

Clegg’s personal leadership ratings are down in the slurry pit with Miliband and you might expect him to be facing the chop from a panic-stricken party. Instead, the malignant Lord Oakeshott seems to be a lone voice, and Clegg looks at least as likely to be in the next government, albeit as deputy prime minister, as Cameron and Miliband are to secure majorities.

 

---------- Post added 18-09-2013 at 16:52 ----------

 

don't agree with that at all although yes UKIP will take some votes from Labour. Just not as many as they will likely take from the Tories.

 

the key really is the Lab/Tory marginals where almost all of them also have a Liberal vote which is certain to lessen. Where will they go. Some may not vote at all. And some of them will also go for UKIP. But of those that switch, my guess is more of them will go Red, than Blue.

 

i saw a poll somewhere in the times (but can't find it now) which said that, in the marginals, of those who voted lib dem last time, but won't do so next time, 50% of them think they will vote labour and 25% think they will vote conservative - if this is correct it goes a long way to explaining why labour are doing better in the polls in the marginal constituencies than they appear to be doing nationally

 

but there is still a long way to go and it is all still to be played for

[Hillpig]

that is not what Ashcroft's recent polls have been saying at all. Labour are doing well in the marginals, women don't like Cameron, UKIP are going to take a nasty little slice of the Tory vote, and when the Liberal vote collapses - which it will - then that will also benefit Labour more than the Tories.

 

it's not looking good at all for the blues.

 

I will donate £100 to any charity of your choice if Labour win. The british public are not daft, they will never vote Milliband in.

 

The only chance Labour have is to ditch Milliband, Balls, in fact the entire front bench, and bring in Alan Johnson as leader Alistair darling as Chancellor.

[southcoast]

He will vote Conservative. As will anyone with any common sense.

 

No I wont,I will continue to vote UKIP.

[blake]

i saw a poll somewhere in the times (but can't find it now) which said that, in the marginals, of those who voted lib dem last time, but won't do so next time, 50% of them think they will vote labour and 25% think they will vote conservative - if this is correct it goes a long way to explaining why labour are doing better in the polls in the marginal constituencies than they appear to be doing nationally

 

but there is still a long way to go and it is all still to be played for

 

that is about what I would suppose, or guess, as well. The Libs are going to drop around 10 points. Where their former voters go, will be crucial. In the Lib/Tory marginals they hold now, they will probably veer more, towards the Tories and UKIP than they will when their 3rd place, but still quite substantial in some cases vote drops off in the Tory/Lab marginals. But will any Tory gains from the Libs in Lib/Tory marginals, offset any Tory losses to Labour in Tory/Labour ones? I think very likely no. There just isn't enough of them.

 

Labour have drawn a lot of criticism, not least from their own former ministers, that they have shown the appearance of sitting back, not doing much, with the idea of having the election just drop, quietly into their lap. And you can see why some of them may have been perhaps tempted by the notion of this despite the risks.

[LeMaquis]

No I wont,I will continue to vote UKIP.

 

You'll vote for a pro-Israeli party like UKIP?

[southcoast]

You'll vote for a pro-Israeli party like UKIP?

 

Is there any parties who are not pro israeli? sometimes you have to compromise,they are anti EU and are against the multicultural experiment thats been foisted on the rest of us not to metion their immigration policies. and anyway I doubt there are many people who agree with everything their party of choice does.