Would Ed Miliband win Labour the next general election

[Mecky]

They're both as bad as each other..as for not mentioning anything " acouple of months ago" ..didn't need to..everyone else was..

 

You can't try and waterdown an argument by saying they are as bad as each other. If they are bad as each other, and people have said Labour are the tories before, there wouldn't be two political parties and the vote wouldn't be split.

[truman]

You can't try and waterdown an argument by saying they are as bad as each other. If they are bad as each other, and people have said Labour are the tories before, there wouldn't be two political parties and the vote wouldn't be split.

 

If one party was obviously better than the other then wouldn't they be showing a huge lead in the polls? Genuine question..

[LeMaquis]

UKIP are going to wipe the floor at the Europeans (oh, the irony!) and get themselves some serious political credibility (for a very fresh-faced fringe party).

 

Ten of the last twelve opinion polls for the European elections have shown UKIP behind. The latest puts them in 3rd place. The two that put them in front are both by Comres and are out of sync with the rest.

 

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/european-elections

 

---------- Post added 24-03-2014 at 15:12 ----------

 

You can't try and waterdown an argument by saying they are as bad as each other. If they are bad as each other, and people have said Labour are the tories before, there wouldn't be two political parties and the vote wouldn't be split.

 

What a stupid argument. There wouldn't be two political parties only if they chose to merge. But they haven't. Neither have the Lib-Dems and Tories but I'm certain you think they're as bad as each other.

[L00b]

Ten of the last twelve opinion polls for the European elections have shown UKIP behind. The latest puts them in 3rd place. The two that put them in front are both by Comres and are out of sync with the rest.

Here's to hoping, LM. But I'm not counting my chickens just yet

 

The socio-political legacy of 5 years' worth of recession is rich and easy pickings for Poujadists everywhere. Predictably, and for shame so.

[I1L2T3]

This is more-or-less what was said in France 2 years ago, after Hollande got elected in May 2012

 

I'm sticking to my FN in France = UKIP in UK voting dynamic parallel.

 

Marine LePen has been pushing the exact same populist buttons as Nigel Farage, and here's the result. Politically speaking, two black eyes to the main left party (Socialists, i.e. Labour in British money), one black eye to the right main party (UMP, i.e. Tories in British money).

 

UKIP are going to wipe the floor at the Europeans (oh, the irony!) and get themselves some serious political credibility (for a very fresh-faced fringe party).

 

As regards Labour, I'm thinking that this result in France might also have (a little-) something to do with today's call for Labour to s**t or get off the pot with their 2015 manifesto.

 

I don't see it happening immediately. For 2015 Labour has a solid core vote and if it does things well will get additional votes from disaffected LibDem voters moving back. It needs a broader left wing vote which is what the disconnecting from unions (actually a much more massive risk than anything any other party has undertaken) is essentially all about. Like I said it only needs 35% - a few button pushes and they will get there. What I can see happening is Labour having a wretched time in power, especially over Europe. That is when Labour gets its bloody nose from UKIP. The Tories are first in line - they get it in 2014 and 2015, but especially 2015.

[Anna Glypta]

.

 

All Miliband needs is 35% of the vote.

 

That must be pretty heartening for the Tories. A year ago Labour were polling 42/44% of the vote, now with the economy starting to expand they are down in the 35/37% range. I would imagine another 12 months of good growth and a generous budget in March 2015 will continue that trend. And if all else fails there is the Miliband factor. How many will walk into the polling station intending to vote Labour, then they imagine Miliband meeting foreign leaders as our PM and vote UKIP.

[I1L2T3]

That must be pretty heartening for the Tories. A year ago Labour were polling 42/44% of the vote, now with the economy starting to expand they are down in the 35/37% range. I would imagine another 12 months of good growth and a generous budget in March 2015 will continue that trend. And if all else fails there is the Miliband factor. How many will walk into the polling station intending to vote Labour, then they imagine Miliband meeting foreign leaders as our PM and vote UKIP.

 

It will be very close, think Labour will just scrape it. That said whoever gets in it's clearly more of the same crap. Fills me with dread.

[LeMaquis]

How many will walk into the polling station intending to vote Labour, then they imagine Miliband meeting foreign leaders as our PM and vote UKIP.

 

Because the idea of Farage meeting foreign leaders would be so much more inspiring. Miliband comes over as a primary school teacher struggling to learn the curriculum but Farage comes over as the Village Idiot on day release.

[Anna Glypta]

Because the idea of Farage meeting foreign leaders would be so much more inspiring. Miliband comes over as a primary school teacher struggling to learn the curriculum but Farage comes over as the Village Idiot on day release.

 

But no one who votes for UKIP expects Farage to be PM. So you can vote UKIP in the certain knowledge that Farage won't be PM. And you can vote for UKIP because you could visualise the world's reaction if Wallace walked out with Obama to inspect the guards.

 

---------- Post added 24-03-2014 at 17:39 ----------

 

It will be very close, think Labour will just scrape it. That said whoever gets in it's clearly more of the same crap. Fills me with dread.

 

And yet...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/10708494/Budget-2014-UK-growth-forecasts-upgraded-by-biggest-margin-in-25-years.html

 

UK growth forecasts upgraded by biggest margin in 25 years

UK economy to finally surpass its pre-crisis peak in 2014, as borrowing projections revised down

[I1L2T3]

But no one who votes for UKIP expects Farage to be PM. So you can vote UKIP in the certain knowledge that Farage won't be PM. And you can vote for UKIP because you could visualise the world's reaction if Wallace walked out with Obama to inspect the guards.

 

---------- Post added 24-03-2014 at 17:39 ----------

 

 

And yet...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/10708494/Budget-2014-UK-growth-forecasts-upgraded-by-biggest-margin-in-25-years.html

 

UK growth forecasts upgraded by biggest margin in 25 years

UK economy to finally surpass its pre-crisis peak in 2014, as borrowing projections revised down

 

It's a regionally unbalanced boom focused on the south and driven by house price rises in the south.

 

the reality elsewhere in the country is that growth is much more patchy. That plays into Labour's narrative about a crisis in living costs.

 

There was a story in the news recently - 1500 people applied for 40 jobs at an Aldi in Shropshire. Many places in the north and Midlands some which were previously prosperous are really struggling.

 

Unless enough people actually feel better off then the Labour narrative is going to work IMO because it is actually for a change rooted in reality.

 

---------- Post added 24-03-2014 at 18:07 ----------

 

Because the idea of Farage meeting foreign leaders would be so much more inspiring. Miliband comes over as a primary school teacher struggling to learn the curriculum but Farage comes over as the Village Idiot on day release.

 

Cameron's track record isn't great. Storming out of meetings, tweeting comical images of himself and trying to establish illegal bombing campaigns. A statesman he is not.

 

And he left his daughter in the pub.