Ed Miliband on the offensive

[brianthedog]

Politics is in a horrendous mess. Labour can go on the offensive and go through a cathartic cleansing process before 2015 but they still won't be trusted. The Tories seem determined to focus on playing dirty again - that's a turn-off for a lot of voters.

 

Very true. All of the political leaders and senior MPs seem out of touch - certainly none of them seem viable candidates for PM. Will make for an interesting election contest and (probable) coalition.

[RutlandFlyer]

Alister Darling borrowed a staggering £156.3bn in 2009. But everyone should have a look at this chart, courtesy of The Guardian.

 

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/3/20/1363802502484/Deficits-by-chancellor-001.jpg

 

Borrowing went through the roof under Labour but is reducing under the current coalition government.

 

I'm curious. Are you really naive enough to believe that if Osborne had been Chancellor in 2008/09 he wouldn't have borrowed money to bail out the banks? Do you think he'd have let them fail, guaranteeing the utter failure of our economy and breakdown of society?

 

I'm just trying to decide if you really are that blinkered, or if you're just throwing it out there in the vain hope someone will be dumb enough to think the Tories wouldn't have put borrowing just as far through the roof had they been in power (instead of being in opposition, championing even further deregulation of the financial sector).

[WeX]

I'm curious. Are you really naive enough to believe that if Osborne had been Chancellor in 2008/09 he wouldn't have borrowed money to bail out the banks? Do you think he'd have let them fail, guaranteeing the utter failure of our economy and breakdown of society?

 

I'm just trying to decide if you really are that blinkered, or if you're just throwing it out there in the vain hope someone will be dumb enough to think the Tories wouldn't have put borrowing just as far through the roof had they been in power (instead of being in opposition, championing even further deregulation of the financial sector).

 

Not at all. I think the Torys may have dealt with it differently but we will never know. We can't make decisions based on what might have happened.

 

I will point out that you are forgetting that there was a recession in the early 90's. The Tory budget deficit is post recession while Labour's deficit pre recession is self inflicted. Brown started well and did preside over a surplus. Some would say that was due to the Tory spending commitments that the Labour party continued before letting loose and blowing all the cash.

 

---------- Post added 25-11-2013 at 19:45 ----------

 

WeX the graph you linked to shows that borrowing accelerated in 2008-9. Before that the profile was pretty similar to the Tory borrowing 91-96. As you know the 2008-9 crisis was the biggest financial event since 1929.

 

Labour had three terms in office. The Labour borrowing total you quote is the total for all three terms, not one term. The Tory borrowing total you quote is for less than one term.

 

The real issue is how we stop it happening again.

 

Labour regulation of the banks was negligent. Tory opposition to it was ineffective, paralysed by their links to the banks.

 

Now we have a massive and early failure of Tory regulation with the co-op crisis. Labour innefective in opposition and paralysed by what is happening.

 

Politics is in a horrendous mess. Labour can go on the offensive and go through a cathartic cleansing process before 2015 but they still won't be trusted. The Tories seem determined to focus on playing dirty again - that's a turn-off for a lot of voters.

 

I1L2T3, all of that may well be true, but I was only pointing out another one of Meckys mistruths. Note how when he is asked to back up his claims he has scuttled away yet again. The guy is a hypocrite and I take pleasure in making sure people know the truth when he posts his lies.

 

---------- Post added 25-11-2013 at 19:54 ----------

 

Very true. All of the political leaders and senior MPs seem out of touch - certainly none of them seem viable candidates for PM. Will make for an interesting election contest and (probable) coalition.

 

Im interested in knowing what you think makes MP's out of touch? Im not defending them but I dont think there has been much change over the years in how MP's act. Especially since the Thatcher years.

 

Have you read the three (four) main parties manifestos? Do you know who your local MP is or who the candidates are for the last election? Did you speak with them and raise your concerns? Have you gone to any of your local MP's surgeries?

 

The way I see it is democracy is in your hands but if do not engage with it, why do you think it should engage with you?

[RutlandFlyer]

Not at all. I think the Torys may have dealt with it differently but we will never know. We can't make decisions based on what might have happened.

 

I will point out that you are forgetting that there was a recession in the early 90's. The Tory budget deficit is post recession while Labour's deficit pre recession is self inflicted. Brown started well and did preside over a surplus. Some would say that was due to the Tory spending commitments that the Labour party continued before letting loose and blowing all the cash

 

Based on the the policy they were pushing in opposition, we know they would've gone even further with deregulation of the banks than Labour did. I think we can safely assume that the crisis would've been worse under Tory stewardship, given the nature of it and the nature of their ideology.

 

Comparing the 07/08 financial crisis with the recession of the early 90s isn't comparing apples with apples. For one thing, the early-90s recession was not as deep but critically, the banks were never in danger of going under, so Major's government never had to bail them out. Had that been the case, you can be certain the Conservatives would've borrowed just as much as Labour did. In a capitalist society, the bank account is the junction box into which every aspect of our lives is plugged. Threaten that and society would collapse in a very real way.

 

I'm also not sure you can gloss over the years of deficit under Thatcher quite so easily, either. You can't really dismiss eight years deficit out of ten as being down to a "post-recession" economy, when the economy actually came out of recession in 1976. Meanwhile, what you see as Labour "blowing all the cash" was necessary investment in public services after 17 years of them being run down by the Tories. As the Keogh report recently put it: "Between 2000 and 2008, the NHS was rightly focused on rebuilding capacity and improving access after decades of neglect." The fact that Thatcher chose to run a deficit for all that time whilst dismantling public services should tell you all you need to know about Tory priorities.

[geared]

We also got sucked into a rather nasty and pro-longed war around 2001 as well, I'd imagine that added to the deficit as it dragged on.

[L00b]

Politics is in a horrendous mess. Labour can go on the offensive and go through a cathartic cleansing process before 2015 but they still won't be trusted. The Tories seem determined to focus on playing dirty again - that's a turn-off for a lot of voters.

I think that UKIP's MEP poll results will initiate the catharsis for all main parties, come 2014.

 

But I certainly won't put a particularly agile, opportunist and self-serving manoeuvre involving UKIP past Cameron. Like him or loathe him, he's politically gifted and has proven much more adept than Milliband at that game.

[LeMaquis]

I think that UKIP's MEP poll results will initiate the catharsis for all main parties, come 2014.

 

It may well do for the Tories but I doubt Labour or Lib-Dems will undergo any knee-jerk reactions. The Tories are in an unenviable position of either losing votes on the right to UKIP or in the middle to Labour. If the Tories start aping UKIP then Labour will clean up a lot of soft Tory votes. If they don't then UKIP will take votes off the Tories. If Labour tops the polls with UKIP second the Tories will have to get the message over than a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour. At the moment the Tories are concentrating on Labour as the main threat but I think they will have to change that at some point.

[RutlandFlyer]

I read one analysis that was expecting Labour to move left and the Conservatives to move right in the run up to the election. It would set Labour apart from both the Conservatives and New Labour, whilst shoring up support on the party's left, which may drift off to the Greens or other parties further left. Meanwhile, Labour's right will probably hold their nose and vote for them again because the Lib Dems are so unpalatable at the moment.

 

On the other side you have the Conservatives, who need to move right to counter the threat of UKIP and who also know there are anti-immigrant, anti-welfare votes to be won over there. This will also help Cameron keep hold of his party's right, who were never comfortable with his centrist policies. They know they can afford to move right because the voters on the Tory left, if they do jump ship, are likely to fall harmlessly to the Lib Dems.

 

I think UKIP could throw a spanner in the works, but probably not the way many expect. My feeling is that they're going to do well in the European elections and Cameron will offer them a deal to merge with the Conservatives in return for a guaranteed referendum if they win in 2015.

[Mecky]

It may well do for the Tories but I doubt Labour or Lib-Dems will undergo any knee-jerk reactions. The Tories are in an unenviable position of either losing votes on the right to UKIP or in the middle to Labour. If the Tories start aping UKIP then Labour will clean up a lot of soft Tory votes. If they don't then UKIP will take votes off the Tories. If Labour tops the polls with UKIP second the Tories will have to get the message over than a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour. At the moment the Tories are concentrating on Labour as the main threat but I think they will have to change that at some point.

 

I think a lot of rebel tories considering voting UKIP won't actually do it when push comes to shove, they just bounce straight back in to the tory fold. At the moment I would saying it would be another hung parliament.

[geared]

I agree, they'll make plenty of noise about it all.

 

but push comes to shove they all know the racist undertones and poorly thought through policies will keep them from becoming a serious party.