Jmack Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I know predictions are a mugs game and there is no arena less predictable than politics. But i thought i'd have a go anyway; 1. Scotland vote no in the independence referendum- Alex Salmond resigns 2. UKIP finish second in EU elections.- Farage tours news studios looking like a man that's been hit over the head with a giant halibut. 3. Support for UKIP collapses as a result meaning UKIP all but disappear from political map. 4. UKIP voters move back to Conservatives further narrowing gap with Labour. 5. Ed Balls sacked a shadow chancellor- Douglas Alexander the replacement 6. Lib Dems begin to make voice heard in coalition, leading to more high profile coalition spats. 7. Vince Cable announces intention to stand down at next election. 8. Economy starts to really pick up. To levels where people start to feel better off. 9. Labour spooked by this move further to the left. 10. Ed Miliband's key policy at his party conference is the gradual re-nationalisation of the railways. Do you agree with this list? Which ones (if any) do you agree or disagree with What are your politcal predictions for 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happ Hazzard Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 UKIP will remain strong until we get a referendum on the Euro. Scotland will vote to leave the UK. Labour continue to be a disaster area. Tories to remain stable. Polls to be neck and neck at year end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mecky Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 UKIP will remain strong until we get a referendum on the Euro. Scotland will vote to leave the UK. Labour continue to be a disaster area. Tories to remain stable. Polls to be neck and neck at year end. Oh dear, here's some rope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 1. Scotland vote no in the independence referendum- Alex Salmond resignsAgreed with the 'no' vote, though not sure about Salmond resigning. He is one shrewd and fast operator, a political survivor. 2. UKIP finish second in EU elections.- Farage tours news studios looking like a man that's been hit over the head with a giant halibut.Bit of a misleading prediction: the test is how many MEPs will UKIP end up with, not whether they will be 'first' or 'second'. Second "overall" at the national scale (for a party born literally yesterday and from pretty much nothing) would have Farage tour the news studios like a kingmaker, certainly not downcast. So, disagree - whereby 3. Support for UKIP collapses as a result meaning UKIP all but disappear from political map. 4. UKIP voters move back to Conservatives further narrowing gap with Labour. Disagreed, further to disagreement with (2) above. Anti-EU sentiment is now rampant throughout much of North/Western Europe, all UKIP-like parties are going to do well in May 2014 wherever they are (UK, France, Greece, Netherlands, etc.) All that said, if you want to extend the forecast (), then I'm tempted to agree with your prediction, but for the UK 2015 election: 12 months' worth of EU parliametarian activity by UKIP MEPs should give plenty enough ammo to the main parties for shooting some pretty big political holes in UKIP's party ship, nabbing some of the more-able and -popular UKIP figures and pinching some more of UKIP's rethoric as needed. 5. Ed Balls sacked a shadow chancellor- Douglas Alexander the replacementWould be nice, but...not holding my breath. I think Ed Balls has too much pull on top level Labour to be shifted from where he is. Not enough to make a full leadership challenge - but enough to stay where he is for now. 6. Lib Dems begin to make voice heard in coalition, leading to more high profile coalition spats. 7. Vince Cable announces intention to stand down at next election. Tempted to agree on both counts, even if only because the LibDems have some political heavy-lifting to do on the run-up to 2015, and are getting to leaving it a bit late with a 2014 start. 8. Economy starts to really pick up. To levels where people start to feel better off.Not really a political prediction, though. Disagree, because the BoE is going to raise the base rate in 2014 (the current fudging of unemployment figures appears deliberately biased/geared towards reaching the magic 7% early, then Carney will be politically pressured to raise the base rate). The drive towards 1980s-like interest rates starts this year, folk. 9. Labour spooked by this move further to the left.Tempted to agree. Not sure about the 'spooking' bit/reason, but a shift further to the left makes political sense, to capture the electorate "left by the roadside" of the economical recovery. 10. Ed Miliband's key policy at his party conference is the gradual re-nationalisation of the railways.Disagree. Too much money/interests/contractual engagements/jobs/national resources at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vague_Boy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 2. UKIP finish second in EU elections.- Farage tours news studios looking like a man that's been hit over the head with a giant halibut. 3. Support for UKIP collapses as a result meaning UKIP all but disappear from political map. Wouldn't that be their best ever result? That's an odd causal relationship you're spelling out here. (That's even assuming that UKIP do as well as that ---- they probably won't.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manlinose Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 my political prediction for 2014 is that there will be a lot more hot air and waffle and not much will change politically - - the coalition parties will gradually put more emphasis on their differences, - labour will continue to emphasise the increasing cost of living compared to the level of earnings, - the conservative right will continue to undermine Cameron by banging on about Europe - Cameron will shift more to the right to appease his right wingers - UKIP will do well in the Euro elections putting even more pressure on Cameron - Scotland will still be part of the UK, but the vote will be close economically, statistically the economy will continue to improve, earnings will continue to lag and there will be at least one interest rate rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 1. Scotland vote no in the independence referendum- Alex Salmond resigns Salmond wont resign, he is a weasel politician who will cling on for as long as possible. if he loses this vote, he will just try to pull more power away from Westminster over time and eventually get his way. Its how politicians such as him work. Baby steps so people do not notice the change until its well established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmack Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wouldn't that be their best ever result? That's an odd causal relationship you're spelling out here. (That's even assuming that UKIP do as well as that ---- they probably won't.) UKIP have built themselves up so much that finishing second would be a disappointment and finishing 3rd would be a disaster. ---------- Post added 03-01-2014 at 10:48 ---------- Salmond wont resign, he is a weasel politician who will cling on for as long as possible. if he loses this vote, he will just try to pull more power away from Westminster over time and eventually get his way. Its how politicians such as him work. Baby steps so people do not notice the change until its well established. He may be a weasel. But I very much doubt it'll be possible for him to stop as the leader of the SNP if they lose the referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoatwobbler Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 my political prediction for 2014 is that there will be a lot more hot air and waffle and not much will change politically - - the coalition parties will gradually put more emphasis on their differences, - labour will continue to emphasise the increasing cost of living compared to the level of earnings, - the conservative right will continue to undermine Cameron by banging on about Europe - Cameron will shift more to the right to appease his right wingers - UKIP will do well in the Euro elections putting even more pressure on Cameron - Scotland will still be part of the UK, but the vote will be close economically, statistically the economy will continue to improve, earnings will continue to lag and there will be at least one interest rate rise Certainly agree about UKIP doing well. However much I disagree with them and dislike them it's European Parliament elections this year, and until the EU sorts itself out UKIP will continue to perform very strongly at those elections. Also agree about lots of hot air, smoke & mirrors and little chainging politically. Don't know if the economy will improve but we can only hope that it does for everybody's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alchresearch Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I wouldn't have predicted this: BNP's Nick Griffin declared bankrupt http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25590155 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.