Uptowngirl Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is all irrelevant anyway since there is no real way to stop russia doing what they want short of another war and that is very unlikely right now, though it will become more likely if russia continues with it's land grab. I'm not too sure about that. I note Russia has backed away from retaliatory sanctions. That is probably because the Russian economy is in a real mess. The credit rating agencies have downgraded Russia's credit rating which means their interest rates on debt will start to rise again. It is also likely that foreign investment will dry up as investors see Russia as a loose cannon. In short this is very likely to plunge Russia back into recession. If that happens (and it very likely will) a few seemingly small sanctions will have very very serious repercussions for Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm not too sure about that. I note Russia has backed away from retaliatory sanctions. That is probably because the Russian economy is in a real mess. The credit rating agencies have downgraded Russia's credit rating which means their interest rates on debt will start to rise again. It is also likely that foreign investment will dry up as investors see Russia as a loose cannon. In short this is very likely to plunge Russia back into recession. If that happens (and it very likely will) a few seemingly small sanctions will have very very serious repercussions for Russia.You're on the mark UG My take on this: this Crimean adventure is part and parcel of Russia preparing its population for an economical hard landing, probably within the next 2 to 3 years, and busy laying the scapegoating foundations in that context, i.e. the EU/the West, peripheral non-Russian populations, political opponents <etc.> Putin has now started to label Russians opposed to his Crimean affair "national traitors"...now where have we heard all this before? I'm taking bets for a Russian night of the long knives in the not-too-distant future. 'Wonder if Hugo Boss will be commissioned to design some uniforms again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uptowngirl Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You're on the mark UG My take on this: this Crimean adventure is part and parcel of Russia preparing its population for an economical hard landing, probably within the next 2 to 3 years, and busy laying the scapegoating foundations in that context, i.e. the EU/the West, peripheral non-Russian populations, political opponents <etc.> Putin has now started to label Russians opposed to his Crimean affair "national traitors"...now where have we heard all this before? I'm taking bets for a Russian night of the long knives in the not-too-distant future Indeed. Let's not forget how much of Russia's foreign earnings come from Volkswagen and other foreign owned plants. It isn't difficult to start shifting production away from such plants as happened in South Africa. In the meantime it looks like Russia's debt costs are set to spiral as another rating's agency has joined in the mark down. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-20/russia-outlook-cut-to-negative-by-s-p-as-obama-widens-sanctions.html Russia’s credit rating outlook was cut to negative by Fitch Ratings, citing the potential impact on a slowing economy of widening U.S. and European Union sanctions imposed as it absorbs Ukraine’s Crimea region. Fitch followed a similar move by Standard & Poor’s yesterday. Both companies affirmed the former Soviet republic at BBB, the second-lowest investment grade, on par with Brazil. Yields on 10-year sovereign ruble bonds rose to 9.66 percent, within 13 basis points of the five-year high on March 14, while The ruble continued declines. European Union leaders added 12 names to their list of Russians and Ukrainians hit with asset freezes and travel bans, and U.S. President Barack Obama yesterday ordered financial sanctions against a wider swath of officials and billionaires seen as allies to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Since U.S. and EU banks and investors may well be reluctant to lend to Russia under the current circumstances, the economy may slow further and the private sector may require official support,” Fitch said in a statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well, didn't think I ever would, but I agree Uptowngirl, having said that, there is a destabilising effect to a crashing economy that might cause even more trouble in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEDROCK Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well, after all the fuss over the referendum, it now looks like there will be another Cold War, genius !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SqueakyPete Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 O.K your fantasies win.I bow out to your superior knowledge. There not fantasies,its common sense. If you can't tell the difference between facts,and a media headline,then I bid you farewell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kidorry Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There not fantasies,its common sense. If you can't tell the difference between facts,and a media headline,then I bid you farewell. Where do you get your facts from,the media?I get mine from relatives in the Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 “Since U.S. and EU banks and investors may well be reluctant to lend to Russia under the current circumstances, the economy may slow further and the private sector may require official support,” Fitch said in a statement.Time to turn the wound about the knife a bit more... To those who keep thinking that economical sanctions are 'toothless' and that Putin does not care: in the above context, Russia is in the throes of massive capital flight, with numbers reportedly reaching 'head-spinning' levels. According to German Gref, the CEO of Sberbank (largest bank in Russia), $35 bn of capital exported over Jan/Feb 2014. Enough to push Russia into recession, according to him. A worrying trend later confirmed by Andreï Klepatch, Russian vice-minister for the economy. According to him, March 2014 saw an increase, to reach $65 to $70 bn in total. It's more than the whole of 2013 ($63 bn overall). The most worrying aspect (for Putin) is that the phenomenon is not sudden, nor limited to the oligarchs and the like at risk of asset freezes, but seems to have started in anger in late 2012, with the entire population at it, in the face of ever-decreasing confidence in the national economy. source (Le Monde, 25.03.14 / french) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeMaquis Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 To those who keep thinking that economical sanctions are 'toothless' and that Putin does not care: in the above context, Russia is in the throes of massive capital flight, with numbers reportedly reaching 'head-spinning' levels. That is very good news. If it causes a collapse in the Russian economy on the scale of the early 90s then so be it. Successive Russian regimes have the same authoritarian mentality and at some point they will have to realise that they need to embrace democratic values if they want to have a successful economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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