General elections - hello coalition era.

[Anna Glypta]

If we take the current opinion polls as a barometer for next years' general election than it is clear that once again there will be no majority party. With the economy seemingly recovering it looks like both the Tories and possibly the LibDems will regain a bit of ground over the coming year, wiping away whatever small lead Labour had (which still wasn't enough to govern alone).

 

If this is the current state of the electorate than the votes going to UKIP and LibDems serve as a means to continue with the idea of coalitions - regardless of whether people want them or not. It is interesting to see this develop over the coming years - support for Labour and Tories might well collapse and other parties could well pick up the pieces.

 

Next year we could have a Tory/UKIP coalition, a LibDem/Labour coalition or a LibDem/Tory coalition again. Interesting times, and, in my opinion, time to start talking about proportional representation again.

 

Credits: Anna Glypta posted a link to the polls in the Unemployment Down, Inflation Down thread.

 

But statistically the party in power usually enjoys a pretty big swing in the polls on the run up to an election. The reason is obvious. They control the purse strings and can make a few popular vote winning giveaways. It happened in 2009/2010 where Brown stripped the cupboard bare in a quest to save his hide. He might have bankrupted the country to do it but he created a swing of around 10% in the polls due to our generosity.

 

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/date/2009/10

 

ICM have a new poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph. The topline figures with changes from about a fortnight ago are CON 42%(-2), LAB 25%(-2), LDEM 21%(+3).

 

---------- Post added 14-05-2014 at 19:53 ----------

 

 

Actually it won't.

 

In fact election results from 1997 and from 2001 would still give a Labour majority without Scottish seats :)

 

But probably not with the proposed boundary changes.

[erebus]

As the Square mile dictates policy, one might as well be governed by a bunch of turnips. Politicians are just a mouthpiece to the puppeteers when all said and done, as what expertise does any of them actually have?

[geared]

But probably not with the proposed boundary changes.

 

Depends on how many seats are abolished.

 

1997 for example, Labour would have still had 362 seats, vs the Conservatives 165

 

2001, Labour would have still had 357, Vs the Conservatives 165

 

Boundary changes might make a little difference, but I'm still fairly sure with a repeat of results like those Labour would ease into power again

[alchresearch]

I think its too early to say. There's still a year to go.

[Anna Glypta]

Depends on how many seats are abolished.

 

1997 for example, Labour would have still had 362 seats, vs the Conservatives 165

 

2001, Labour would have still had 357, Vs the Conservatives 165

 

Boundary changes might make a little difference, but I'm still fairly sure with a repeat of results like those Labour would ease into power again

 

Perhaps so, but without Scotland Labour would be polling in the high 20% and not the mid 30%s. But if Scotland votes for independence it leave the Tories with a majority of 19 in Westminster for the rest of this parliament. Loads of time to push through the boundary changes which would increase that majority to effectively 51 by the time of the 2015 election.

[tzijlstra]

I think that if Scotland do vote to abolish the union and the Tories would become the default party we will rapidly see their support decline in favour of other parties or, hopefully, an increased call for PR.

[erebus]

Just imagine a country where North Sea Oil revenues goes straight into the Scottish coffers. Will the rest of us be able to sustain our economy based of the financial industry's tax contribution?

[rickiethecat]

Things aren't going too badly to be honest, I don't really see the point in rocking the boat and massively changing things up.

 

A slow, steady recovery seems to be working well for us - we've still got a way to go before the debt mountain is back to a decent level.

 

I agree. Coalition governments work as having more than one party in power acts as a kind of brake on the more extreme policies a one-party government might follow.

 

Just imagine if the last labour government had been a coalition with the lib dems. Disastrous policies such as the illegal wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the fiancial crisis could well have been avoided.

[GLASGOWOODS]

Just imagine a country where North Sea Oil revenues goes straight into the Scottish coffers. Will the rest of us be able to sustain our economy based of the financial industry's tax contribution?

 

The oil may not go straight into the Scottish coffers, if the Shetland Isles want to stay in the union.