The Conservative Party - all discussion here please.

[Alan Ladd]

AND - contrary to what Alan Ladd says - Labour would have first dibs at forming a government which would be a difficult job. But, it could be done Scots Nats are more left wing than Labour, same goes for Plaid Cymru and the Green. The Lib Dems, I think, will be reluctant to go in with the Tory's again.

 

The Daily Mail have a bias, as do all papers, and as 'blake' pointed out it can't make sense even to them.

 

As for nightmare uber-right Tory-UKIP coalition, in your dreams. UKIP, imo, will not get into double figures let alone three.

 

Even using the Mail figures a combination between Tory's & UKIP equals 315 still short of the magic 325.

 

So what we are left with is a minority Labour Govt which staggers on for about 12/18 months and then another General Election. But events will change things long before then.

Will Cameron cut the Scots, Welsh and Irish off to save his skin?

 

Based on the figures you quoted I don't think that Labour would be able to form a government even a minority one. It seems to me that the majority of UKIP supporters are actually Tory defectors and, with an election over, would find it pretty easy to form a coalition with the Tories. Can you really see a Labour UKIP pact?

 

Cameron will drop the scots/welsh/irish like a hot potato no matter what, if he does we will see the end of the labour party as we know it, about time too.

[Mecky]

Can you really see a Labour UKIP pact?

 

No I can't because, despite people saying Labour are tories, UKIP are far right just the same as the tories. Let them beat the crap out of each other. I seriously hope the tories win next years election

[blake]

Latest ICM poll gives it Labour 35%, Tories 31%, UKIP 14%. The NHS is voters' number one concern, not exactly UKIP's strength.

 

 

even 20% UKIP support would not translate into them gaining any more than a very few seats, and all of them at the expense of the Tories.

 

that is what I would expect the pattern of the polls to be over the winter, Labour ahead but not by much. They have played a potentially very dangerous game since the first days after they lost in 2010 when Labour clearly resolved to not do anything too drastic and with luck, we should be able to just stumble back into government after the five year break we needed. A very dangerous and also complacent game that, and the complacency gave rise to a lot of criticism about the strategy as within the Labour party there is always this big idea within the Labour party that you have to enthuse to win like in 1945 and 1997. That it seems almost cowardly and unworthy, to sneak in by default, because you are not the very best/clear winner but the least-worst option. But I still think the strategy despite its obvious lack of nobility, clear headed and not without merit. Relying on everyone else to mess things up seems so slack. But it is not always so bad, a plan.

 

if Labour are four or five points ahead of the Tories it will be all over for Cameron and Labour will govern, from next May.

[LeMaquis]

The NHS issue is ironic when you consider the debt that some trusts find themselves in due to PFI...

 

That will come back and bite Labour's bum one day.

 

---------- Post added 14-10-2014 at 21:36 ----------

 

if Labour are four or five points ahead of the Tories it will be all over for Cameron and Labour will govern, from next May.

 

I think a general election campaign will put a lot of people off voting Labour unless they put a bag over Miliband's head. He just doesn't look like a PM. Cameron will walk all over him. I still think there'll be another hung parliament with the possibility of a 3 or 4 party or even minority 2 party coalition.

 

---------- Post added 14-10-2014 at 21:37 ----------

 

I seriously hope the tories win next years election

 

Conservatism is incompatible with democracy, prosperity, and civilization in general.

 

Weirder and weirder.

[blake]

Miliband is not a good candidate and Cameron is much better. The big worry for Labour is not Miliband so much, but that they are not trusted on the economy.

 

but the way the voting is panning out, the way UKIP are going to hurt the Tories and the Lib Dem vote will collapse and also at the expense of the Tories more than Labour, it looks like the election could well fall into Labour's lap regardless.

[Frederick1]

I doubt it. Those percentages do not add up to slighly less than 100 which they should do, but 106. Who is planning on voting twice?

 

I am merely quoting Sunday Mail figures blake.

If they don't add up you can write to them or send them a calculator!!!

[Mecky]

Miliband is not a good candidate and Cameron is much better. The big worry for Labour is not Miliband so much, but that they are not trusted on the economy.

 

Yeah strange isn't it? All these cuts, persecution etc and the tories still borrowed more money in 3-5 years than Labour did in 13 and the economy is still no better off than 4.5 years ago. Yet the right wing press, most of the press in the UK, still try and blame Labour. Self propagation is what we’re talking about here. In fact, Labour have only ever twice left office with a higher national debt, as a percentage of GDP, than they inherited. Both of those times were after the worst global economic crashes ever 1929 - left office in 1931 and in 2008 - left office in 2010. And no, I don't like Miliband

[LeMaquis]

I seriously hope the tories win next years election

 

All these cuts, persecution etc and the tories still borrowed more money in 3-5 years than Labour did in 13 and the economy is still no better off than 4.5 years ago. Yet the right wing press, most of the press in the UK, still try and blame Labour.

 

Duuuurrrrrrr.

[Alan Ladd]

even 20% UKIP support would not translate into them gaining any more than a very few seats, and all of them at the expense of the Tories.

 

that is what I would expect the pattern of the polls to be over the winter, Labour ahead but not by much. They have played a potentially very dangerous game since the first days after they lost in 2010 when Labour clearly resolved to not do anything too drastic and with luck, we should be able to just stumble back into government after the five year break we needed. A very dangerous and also complacent game that, and the complacency gave rise to a lot of criticism about the strategy as within the Labour party there is always this big idea within the Labour party that you have to enthuse to win like in 1945 and 1997. That it seems almost cowardly and unworthy, to sneak in by default, because you are not the very best/clear winner but the least-worst option. But I still think the strategy despite its obvious lack of nobility, clear headed and not without merit. Relying on everyone else to mess things up seems so slack. But it is not always so bad, a plan.

 

if Labour are four or five points ahead of the Tories it will be all over for Cameron and Labour will govern, from next May.

 

I can see your reasoning, but seriously, and I ask this in as objective way way as I can, can you seriously envisage Milliband being voted in?

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2014 at 11:35 ----------

 

Yeah strange isn't it? All these cuts, persecution etc and the tories still borrowed more money in 3-5 years than Labour did in 13 and the economy is still no better off than 4.5 years ago. Yet the right wing press, most of the press in the UK, still try and blame Labour. Self propagation is what we’re talking about here. In fact, Labour have only ever twice left office with a higher national debt, as a percentage of GDP, than they inherited. Both of those times were after the worst global economic crashes ever 1929 - left office in 1931 and in 2008 - left office in 2010. And no, I don't like Miliband

 

The last Labour government did two good things, they brought in the Minimum Wage and the Working Time Directive.

 

Other than that I have difficulty in accepting that they did anything but try to deify Blair, a man who by any definition is a war criminal. By crowning Brown as his successor unchallenged, the party showed itself as being undemocratic, self centred, elitist and economically incompetent.

 

These people who populate the Labour party are not socialists, I can respect a socialist, they espouse a belief system and world view I disagree with, but I can understand. The people who have taken over this once great party are a set of overeducated, chancers who will do anything, to regain power. They should be resisted.

[Mecky]

I can see your reasoning, but seriously, and I ask this in as objective way way as I can, can you seriously envisage Milliband being voted in?

 

---------- Post added 15-10-2014 at 11:35 ----------

 

 

The last Labour government did two good things, they brought in the Minimum Wage and the Working Time Directive.

 

Other than that I have difficulty in accepting that they did anything but try to deify Blair, a man who by any definition is a war criminal. By crowning Brown as his successor unchallenged, the party showed itself as being undemocratic, self centred, elitist and economically incompetent.

 

These people who populate the Labour party are not socialists, I can respect a socialist, they espouse a belief system and world view I disagree with, but I can understand. The people who have taken over this once great party are a set of overeducated, chancers who will do anything, to regain power. They should be resisted.

 

Ok, I'll bite, why is Blair a war criminal?