Predict outcome of Newark by election here

[blake]

2010 General Election result

 

CON 27,590 (54%)

 

LAB 11,438 (22%)

 

LIB 10,246 (20%)

 

UKIP 1.954 (4%)

[geared]

It's a safe conservative seat from what I've been told.

 

It's also a really nice place to visit

[blake]

I had a bird from there once. She didn't come from Newark town itself but from one of the rural wards which I would imagine are even more strongly Conservative than the seat itself. However she told me her mom and dad were not Tory voters.

 

though it is without doubt a safe Tory seat, Labour did win it in 1997 and also in 1966, though I imagine the boundaries would have been different way back then. It was one of the few Tory gains in 2001.

 

if Farage was running I would have voted differently than I did (I voted option 2). I think UKIP would win, were Farage the candidate, and perhaps I would have voted option 5.

[LeMaquis]

I'll plump for a massively reduced Tory majority. I was hoping UKIP might win but their election car is a Renault. Charity begins at home.

[ECCOnoob]

Im not sure on this. I had a feeling (although it makes me sick to say it...) that UKIP would take a big chunk from the Tories.

 

However, I have driven through there twice today once from Chesvegas and once outwards towards Retford and the amount of Tory poster/signposts/placards and banners was quite extrodinary.

[blake]

being professional the Tories will have obviously been pulling all the stops out. UKIP would have to take a very big chunk indeed, 16,000 plus votes in fact to take the seat off the Tories. Farage probably would have managed it though and I think he would have had a better chance winning here than he will have in any seat, even one that he chooses for himself, in the GE. However had Farage won Newark in the by-electon then he might easily have lost it again in the GE next May, which is the fate that will surely await the UKIP candidate, if he does perchance fluke it, and win. By elections are funny things.

[Marx]

I had a bird from there once. She didn't come from Newark town itself but from one of the rural wards which I would imagine are even more strongly Conservative than the seat itself. However she told me her mom and dad were not Tory voters.

 

Do you mean you had a bird from there once or you once had a bird from there? I can't imagine she would have returned for seconds.

[Doom]

I've seen two opinion polls for this:

 

CON 42%(-12), LAB 20%(-2), LDEM 6%(-14), UKIP 27%(+23)

 

and

 

CON 36%(-18 ), LAB 27%(+5), LD 5%(-15), UKIP 28%(+24)

 

Regards

 

Doom

[clinteastwoo]

UKIP won't make a dent in this election, the Tories have it sown up.

 

Where UKIP can take credit though in this is that they have scared all the other parties that much that they have had them all out campaigning just in case UKIP did drop another bomb shell on the establishment

[muckymurphy]

being professional the Tories will have obviously been pulling all the stops out. UKIP would have to take a very big chunk indeed, 16,000 plus votes in fact to take the seat off the Tories. Farage probably would have managed it though and I think he would have had a better chance winning here than he will have in any seat, even one that he chooses for himself, in the GE. However had Farage won Newark in the by-electon then he might easily have lost it again in the GE next May, which is the fate that will surely await the UKIP candidate, if he does perchance fluke it, and win. By elections are funny things.

 

UKIP will need probably 22,000 votes to win this seat. the deciding factor depends on where those votes come from. they can expect to steal 7,000 from the libs, and my guess is they could get 3,000 from labour and maybe 6,000 from cons. so probably not enough to win this time. newark does not seem to suffer from migrant problems and as such is a cosy tory backwater.