What happens to the UK election if Scotland votes for independence?

[blake]

 

One thing for sure - win lose or draw - Alex Salmon ain't gonna go quietly -

...

 

you might be surprised. I've just been up in Scotland for the past 2 weeks. Nobody is bigger than their party, not Thatcher and not Salmond. There was talk that after the independence vote has gone their way, the SNP might turn on him and force a leadership election which Salmond could lose. In SNP leadership elections the electorate is just all the members of the party.

[sharpend]

In case of a yes vote, independence properly speaking is scheduled at March 2016, with bartering taking place between 19 September 2014 and that date.

 

From that date, Scottish MPs should logically be told to do one from the House of Parliament, and Scottish nationals in the UK without a double nationality lose some or all of their voting rights (I'm unsure which further voting rights they might lose as non-EU/Commonwealth-only citizens).

 

The YESsers are expecting to get into the EU fast by March 2016 under Article 48 TEU. That is simply not going to happen, because of Spain (chiefly), France, Italy, Croatia and more. Whatever Juncker says or however Juncker feels about it.

 

They'll have to get back into the EU the long way round under Article 49 starting in March 2016 (Scotland not being independent before then, cannot start the process until then), and all estimates I have seen are between 2 and 3 years, so Scotland should be back into the EU sometime in 2019.

 

Thanks - helpful - by way of interest - Andalucian independence campaigners protesting (with bag pipes!!!) at the start of a recent stage of the tour of Spain (cycling)

 

---------- Post added 10-09-2014 at 09:04 ----------

 

you might be surprised. I've just been up in Scotland for the past 2 weeks. Nobody is bigger than their party, not Thatcher and not Salmond. There was talk that after the independence vote has gone their way, the SNP might turn on him and force a leadership election which Salmond could lose. In SNP leadership elections the electorate is just all the members of the party.

 

Yeah true - and he has staked his entire career on this. Will be interesting to watch.

[andyofborg]

if that happens that presumably means that they will have to repeal the 2011 Fixed Parliaments Act - showing what a totally stupid law it was to pass in the first place.

 

Actually, its a very good idea but that's maybe an argument for another thread.

 

In this specific case it's meaningless since the legislation existing before the passing of the 2011 Act would have forced an election no later than May 2015 and to delay the general election for another year would have required new legislation anyway.

[L00b]

Thanks - helpful - by way of interest - Andalucian independence campaigners protesting (with bag pipes!!!) at the start of a recent stage of the tour of Spain (cycling)

Allowing Scotland into the EU under Article 48 TEU would require substantive amendments to the TEU and create the very precedent which Basques, Catalans, Andalusians, Northern League Italians, Corsicans, Bretons <etc.> need to drive their independentist agenda further (because this precedent would then make it very easy for newly-independent bits of existing EU Member States to rejoin the EU so fast as to effectively 'stay within it uninterruptedly').

 

That is why you can expect a metric ton or ten of opposition to this manoeuvre by Scotland, by all of:

 

(i) the EU Member States with established independentist movements,

 

(ii) the EU Member States with potential independentist movements (Germany is one, IIRC), and

 

(iii) the latest members of the EU club who've had to jumps through a Himalaya of hoops and loops for years under Art.49.

 

Back on-topic (sorry!), I'd like to know how questions of nationality are going to be solved, practically.

[blake]

Actually, its a very good idea but that's maybe an argument for another thread.

 

In this specific case it's meaningless since the legislation existing before the passing of the 2011 Act would have forced an election no later than May 2015 and to delay the general election for another year would have required new legislation anyway.

 

speak for yourself. PM's being able to call elections as and when was for me an integral part of the constitution.

 

though yes under the old law they would have needed to pass extra legislation to extend the parliament, the first fixed election of the 2011 Act was to be 2015, so they surely have to repeal it if the feeling grows that a GE can't be contested then after a Scottish YES vote. Which means that the 2011 Act was a total failure at the first time of asking under the grounds people objected to it at the time - fixed parliaments of whatever length do not allow for enough flexibility in a country like the UK without a rigid written constitution.

[truman]

Poetic justice really for an anti Euro vote, because people won't be able to to take holidays abroard any more.

 

Why's that then?

[blake]

well I spend the winter months abroard every year and I earn my money in pounds, exchange it and live on it there. If those pounds are buying 20% less foreign exchange - like they did when the pound collapsed in 2008 - I'll feel it. Already, even before the vote and just the narrowing of the polls, 1 pound that was buying me 76 of the foreign currency last week, is only buying me 71 this week - when it had steadily steadily going up from 65 in the preceeding months, suddenly there was this abrupt fall caused by a couple of opinion polls. After a 'real' YES vote it will go down still more, probably to 60 which was even lower than it got down in 2008. And if you think a YES vote in a Euro Referendum isn't also going to cause a big run on the pound, then you also need your head examining.

[truman]

well I spend the winter months abroard every year and I earn my money in pounds, exchange it and live on it there. If those pounds are buying 20% less foreign exchange - like they did when the pound collapsed in 2008 - I'll feel it. Already, even before the vote and just the narrowing of the polls, 1 pound that was buying me 76 of the foreign currency last week, is only buying me 71 this week. After a YES vote it will go down still more, probably to 60 which was even lower than it got down in 2008. And if you think a YES vote in a Euro Referendum isn't also going to cause a big run on the pound, then you also need your head examining.

 

It doesn't mean people won't be able to holiday abroad...

[drummond]

Allowing Scotland into the EU under Article 48 TEU would require substantive amendments to the TEU and create the very precedent which Basques, Catalans, Andalusians, Northern League Italians, Corsicans, Bretons <etc.> need to drive their independentist agenda further (because this precedent would then make it very easy for newly-independent bits of existing EU Member States to rejoin the EU so fast as to effectively 'stay within it uninterruptedly').

 

That is why you can expect a metric ton or ten of opposition to this manoeuvre by Scotland, by all of:

 

(i) the EU Member States with established independentist movements,

 

(ii) the EU Member States with potential independentist movements (Germany is one, IIRC), and

 

(iii) the latest members of the EU club who've had to jumps through a Himalaya of hoops and loops for years under Art.49.

 

Back on-topic (sorry!), I'd like to know how questions of nationality are going to be solved, practically.

 

To be considered for EU membership Scotland would have to demostrate fiscal stability in its economy. As it currently doesn't exist as an independent state it has no economy to show is stable. So the process could not even beging until Scotland was seperated and standing alone.

[L00b]

To be considered for EU membership Scotland would have to demostrate fiscal stability in its economy. As it currently doesn't exist as an independent state it has no economy to show is stable. So the process could not even beging until Scotland was seperated and standing alone.

See above, excerpted below

<...> They'll have to get back into the EU the long way round under Article 49 TEU starting in March 2016 (Scotland not being independent before then, cannot start the process until then). All estimates I have seen are between 2 and 3 years, so an independent Scotland should be back into the EU sometime in 2019. If they qualify (it's a big IF).

Two big ones, which look to me to be very much "kept under the radar" by the SNP, are that (i) Scotland won't get any amount of rebate like the UK does (no-way, no-how: no EU Member State, other than maybe the UK if it feels generous, would accept this) and (ii) Scotland will have to join the € club, because that's been a sine qua none condition for the last few EU Member States to join. (ii) would solve their not getting the £...but would subject them to the ECB's and Germany's whims. Rock, hard place...