tzijlstra Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 In another thread I mentioned the following: With the oil price coming down the way it is we can afford to become firmer with the Saudi's on a geopolitical level. We boycott countries for less than this. To which Nagel offers this interesting response: But the KSA is quite happy with the drop in oil price and are using it to keep their market share. They still make a good profit at $50/bbl and want to see the more expensive shale oil producers in the USA and their sources of finance go bankrupt. They're quite happy with the bad effect it will have on the finances of their arch-rivals in Iran and also the Islamic State. This from Robert Peston http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30827910 Davyboy reiterates this point: All they have to do is cut the supply and the price will go up again. However there's more to it. I read that they are keeping the price low to hurt the Russian and Iranian economies. I wonder who asked them to do that. oops. just seen Nagel's post. I have to admit I hadn't thought of this angle, despite being acutely aware of the fact that we are living in the predicted Oil War geopolitical era. Some thirty years ago several Dutch scholars raised this point repeatedly and it became a hot topic in the Netherlands: Those that have oil will increasingly decide the global agenda as there is an increasing shortage of the stuff. The point made by Peston (annoying manners and all) seems very relevant in this light. But it raises a very big question as well: How independent are we really? Have we seen the oil price go up and up and up in the past two decades due to the fact that the Middle East wanted to apply pressure on Europe and the US? Was the intervention in Iraq more to do with the US showing its teeth and preparedness to safeguard oil-reserves when needed than we even suspected? Today news came out that Russia's economy is due to shrink with 5% because a WHOPPING 50% of government income is directly related to oil and gas income. (reported on nu.nl a Dutch independent news site and sort of confirmed here.) What is more, Cameron just came out and stated that the falling oil-price is good because it will mean real incomes (ie. the money we can spend) should go up significantly as a result. The US is less dependent on oil due to the shale gas revolution... A lot of interesting wheels spinning, thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longcol Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 In another thread I mentioned the following: To which Nagel offers this interesting response: Davyboy reiterates this point: I have to admit I hadn't thought of this angle, despite being acutely aware of the fact that we are living in the predicted Oil War geopolitical era. Some thirty years ago several Dutch scholars raised this point repeatedly and it became a hot topic in the Netherlands: Those that have oil will increasingly decide the global agenda as there is an increasing shortage of the stuff. The point made by Peston (annoying manners and all) seems very relevant in this light. But it raises a very big question as well: How independent are we really? Have we seen the oil price go up and up and up in the past two decades due to the fact that the Middle East wanted to apply pressure on Europe and the US? Was the intervention in Iraq more to do with the US showing its teeth and preparedness to safeguard oil-reserves when needed than we even suspected? Today news came out that Russia's economy is due to shrink with 5% because a WHOPPING 50% of government income is directly related to oil and gas income. (reported on nu.nl a Dutch independent news site and sort of confirmed here.) What is more, Cameron just came out and stated that the falling oil-price is good because it will mean real incomes (ie. the money we can spend) should go up significantly as a result. The US is less dependent on oil due to the shale gas revolution... A lot of interesting wheels spinning, thoughts? Some interesting stuff - the house of Saud is as per usual looking after number one. Re: the Iraq intervention - saying it was "all about oil" is I think a cop-out argument often used on the left (and by conspiracy theorists). We seem to forget that the west had previously shown it could intervene in Iraq in the Gulf War in the early 90's. The reason to me lies somewhere in the reasoning of Bush and his cohorts - perhaps some unfinished family business? I think there is a huge element tied in to 9/11 which dealt a huge blow to the American psyche. We in Europe appear to totally underestimate this and the desire to by the USA (and allies) that they could strike at (real or supposed) perpertrators of attacks / percieved threats coming from the region. I think Sadaam rattled one too many sabres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Some interesting stuff - the house of Saud is as per usual looking after number one. Re: the Iraq intervention - saying it was "all about oil" is I think a cop-out argument often used on the left (and by conspiracy theorists). We seem to forget that the west had previously shown it could intervene in Iraq in the Gulf War in the early 90's. The reason to me lies somewhere in the reasoning of Bush and his cohorts - perhaps some unfinished family business? I think there is a huge element tied in to 9/11 which dealt a huge blow to the American psyche. We in Europe appear to totally underestimate this and the desire to by the USA (and allies) that they could strike at (real or supposed) perpertrators of attacks / percieved threats coming from the region. I think Sadaam rattled one too many sabres. You will note I said "More to do than we even suspected" about the Iraq war, I don't think we will ever know what the exact cause/reason was. What I do know is that the current oil-price is unnatural, but was the massive rise in prices since 2000 the unnatural part, or is the current drop the unnatural part? It can not be a coincidence that Russia started to climb out of its economic slumber over this last 15 years, nor can it be that it is seemingly being slapped back to pre-revival levels. One thing I would consider in that respect is that the EU/US announced all these sanctions that the EU/US were implementing, but did they also apply pressure under the water-level to get OPEC to drop the oil price? It benefits heads of state in flagging economies enormously whilst at the same time hurting Russia enormously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longcol Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I think the house of Saud will always consider themselves as priorities one, two and three - and are happy enough for the USA to maintain there role as the worlds policeman given how they have prospered hugely from its "protection" and perhaps help the economies of their providers of luxuries (and arms) in the west. Certainly I think they consider the Putin regime as a destablising factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geared Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 are happy enough for the USA to maintain there role as the worlds policeman given how they have prospered hugely from its "protection" and perhaps help the economies of their providers of luxuries (and arms) in the west. In doing so they've also drawn ire from every terrorist group across the middle east, who see the Saudi's are being in bed with the US. It's also worth remembering that Isis is drawing a significant amount of money from the Oil fields it now controls. Isis has publically denounced Saudi Arabia and has called for attacks on the state. Russia/Iran supply lots of weapons to the area, so the current oil price does a nice job of hitting all the enemy's of Saudi in one go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
verona Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Negative Inflation, get ready for the big crash. ---------- Post added 17-01-2015 at 20:54 ---------- In doing so they've also drawn ire from every terrorist group across the middle east, who see the Saudi's are being in bed with the US. It's also worth remembering that Isis is drawing a significant amount of money from the Oil fields it now controls. Isis has publically denounced Saudi Arabia and has called for attacks on the state. Russia/Iran supply lots of weapons to the area, so the current oil price does a nice job of hitting all the enemy's of Saudi in one go. Isis are trained by the Americans, it's all part of the big wool pulling over the sheeps, sorry, publics eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mecky Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 In doing so they've also drawn ire from every terrorist group across the middle east, who see the Saudi's are being in bed with the US. It's also worth remembering that Isis is drawing a significant amount of money from the Oil fields it now controls. Isis has publically denounced Saudi Arabia and has called for attacks on the state. Russia/Iran supply lots of weapons to the area, so the current oil price does a nice job of hitting all the enemy's of Saudi in one go. Providing IS can find someone to buy the oil of course. If you do it's probable you condone their actions and I'm very much mistaken if the world players want to be seen as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
verona Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Smoking gun proof that ISIS is a CIA/MOSSAD/MI6 job??? http://youtu.be/JUX3kZmp6oE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imjustagirl Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Smoking gun proof that ISIS is a CIA/MOSSAD/MI6 job??? http://youtu.be/JUX3kZmp6oE Proof? Don't be silly. I could do that on photoshop,and there is a lot of people out there that are a 1000 times better than me at editing,who also have an agenda to spread malicious rumours for the "I saw it in a picture,so it must be true!"population amongst us. I have no doubt that the above organizations play/have played sneaky games,but I would be very suprised if they were stupid enough to be in a top secret meeting on film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harleyman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 You will note I said "More to do than we even suspected" about the Iraq war, I don't think we will ever know what the exact cause/reason was. What I do know is that the current oil-price is unnatural, but was the massive rise in prices since 2000 the unnatural part, or is the current drop the unnatural part? It can not be a coincidence that Russia started to climb out of its economic slumber over this last 15 years, nor can it be that it is seemingly being slapped back to pre-revival levels. One thing I would consider in that respect is that the EU/US announced all these sanctions that the EU/US were implementing, but did they also apply pressure under the water-level to get OPEC to drop the oil price? It benefits heads of state in flagging economies enormously whilst at the same time hurting Russia enormously. What's hurting Russia is the boycott imposed by the US and the EU. Maybe Putin should wise up and keep his nose out of the Ukraine. It's no longer part of the greater Russian empire and should be respected as an independent sovereign state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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