Syriza to get majority in Greece.

[tzijlstra]

heres one but I guess you wont believe it will you tim http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/02/us-iceland-economy-insight-idUSKBN0MT0WE20150402

you and your beloved eu eh :hihi::hihi:

 

So what that says is this: After six years of financial cold Iceland is hoping to finally get its things sorted again.

 

How about all those Icelandic people that lost thousands and thousands of pounds when their banks crashed from one day to the other? Getting back to earning something near similar to 2007 is great, but when you've lost half your capital in the process that is pretty sour, don't you think?

[I1L2T3]

So what that says is this: After six years of financial cold Iceland is hoping to finally get its things sorted again.

 

How about all those Icelandic people that lost thousands and thousands of pounds when their banks crashed from one day to the other? Getting back to earning something near similar to 2007 is great, but when you've lost half your capital in the process that is pretty sour, don't you think?

 

I think we're getting to the nitty gritty of things now.

 

Iceland did not bail out its banks and yes people who made irresponsible borrowing choices have lost out, or maybe are in negative equity and on subdued wages. Iceland did not impose austerity on its citizens although the downside for citizens is that their own financial decisions have been made their own responsibility. Unemployment rates are only 5%. It's not a bed of roses but they have a light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Why do you want to deny the Greek people the same choices through democratic means?

 

---------- Post added 30-06-2015 at 23:47 ----------

 

I hate to say this, but this is where you show A) incredible naivety and B) complete misunderstanding of the problem.

 

A) Syriza called a referendum to be held AFTER the deadline, a few days before that deadline. If that is your idea of a referendum than you presumably felt the Krimean referendum was a democratic representation of reality as well.

 

B) The ECB sets an interest rate on the Euro, not on national bonds, that is and always has been, set by the international bonds markets.

 

For some idea on what that means: Since Sunday the interest the GREEK government has to pay on a 10y bond has gone up with nearly 4 % to 15%, once Greece is out of the Euro these will be sovereign bonds (ie. held against the Euro) but the Greek currency will collapse against the Euro, meaning that in reality it will be a multiple of that 15%.

 

The ECB doesn't set that at all, the market does.

 

 

 

 

But you are clearly wrong. Do you know any Greeks? Because I know nearly a dozen after having worked with them for two years. None of them have your optimism in this, none. In fact, half of them have moved out of Greece over the past 5 years and two of them have bought property here in the UK and elsewhere just to secure their assets.

 

I worked with 2 universities and one (successful) consultancy, one university (the National Technical University of Athens) closed from one day to another, parts of it have restarted but it looks grim. The other university, a private institute, is clinging on for dear life because they specialise in getting EU funding for research, once Greece is out of the EU they will be without work instantly. The consultancy was renowned all over the world for international shipping knowledge, they are out of business, 3 generations old it was. But with all their clients bailing ship like rats they crashed and burned.

 

Yes, Greece will be fine, it is just the EU bullies that are killing it.

 

Sorry, but no naivety at all here just realism.

 

It really doesn't matter when the referendum is called. The deadline is an artificial one. The moon isn't going to fall from the sky if a payment is missed. One click of as button at ECB HQ will cover any shortfall.

 

Sooner or later Greece is going to have to leave the Euro. And yes nasty things are going to happen but Greece can't stay in. It has reached a snapping point where people are outright rejecting further austerity.

 

The reality too is that it will stay in the EU and the EU will help it recover. Wait and see. If it doesn't and punative action is taken then Gree e might look elsewhere, to Russia even.

Edited June 30, 2015 by I1L2T3

[tzijlstra]

I think we're getting to the nitty gritty of things now.

 

Iceland did not bail out its banks and yes people who made irresponsible borrowing choices have lost out, or maybe are in negative equity and on subdued wages. Iceland did not impose austerity on its citizens although the downside for citizens is that their own financial decisions have been made their own responsibility. Unemployment rates are only 5%. It's not a bed of roses but they have a light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Why do you want to deny the Greek people the same choices through democratic means?

 

First of all, there is no comparing Iceland and Greece. Iceland has the population of one Athens suburb (300,000 v 11,000,000) - the make-up of the two economies is vastly different and the path to recovery is different. Also, for about the tenth time, Iceland crashed due to their banks, Greece crashed due to their government not being able to afford its debt anymore.

 

Sorry, but no naivety at all here just realism.

 

It really doesn't matter when the referendum is called. The deadline is an artificial one. The moon isn't going to fall from the sky if a payment is missed. One click of as button at ECB HQ will cover any shortfall.

 

Sooner or later Greece is going to have to leave the Euro. And yes nasty things are going to happen but Greece can't stay in. It has reached a snapping point where people are outright rejecting further austerity.

 

The reality too is that it will stay in the EU and the EU will help it recover. Wait and see. If it doesn't and punative action is taken then Gree e might look elsewhere, to Russia even.

 

First point: this is where the naivety kicks in, both with you and the Greek people against austerity - without these plans there is no point in protesting austerity, the country will simply seize to provide services without choice - those in the public sector will stop being paid, as well as those reliant on the state for income, a hell of a lot of pensioners for example.

 

Second point: if that is the reality, than why is Syriza encouraging its people to vote against austerity? The reality is that the biggest bloc in the EU is vehemently against the Greeks getting away with it and increasingly is prepared to shove them out of the picture altogether.

[Eater Sundae]

Just a thought (or it may be happening anyway, I don't know).

 

Greece has long been an opponent of Turkey joining the EU. The EU in general have wanted an ever widening EU, and so in principle would like Turkey to join. (Although the current problems on Turkey's border with Syria and the whole "ISIL thing" may be giving EU expansionists cause for a rethink.)

 

So, how about the EU giving Greece a bit more breathing space to sort out its late payments in exchange for it removing its objection to Turkey joining the EU?

[Chris_Sleeps]

For some idea on what that means: Since Sunday the interest the GREEK government has to pay on a 10y bond has gone up with nearly 4 % to 15%

The interest on a bond is set - it's yield. It is the value of the bond that changes, and thus the yield ratio changes. People buying bonds for less than their face value will see the interest rate increase - not the original bond holder. These changes won't increase Greek debt in any way.

 

Anyone currently buying Greek bonds must be the biggest gambler around. I wouldn't touch em with a barge pole.

[tzijlstra]

The interest on a bond is set - it's yield. It is the value of the bond that changes, and thus the yield ratio changes. People buying bonds for less than their face value will see the interest rate increase - not the original bond holder. These changes won't increase Greek debt in any way.

 

Anyone currently buying Greek bonds must be the biggest gambler around. I wouldn't touch em with a barge pole.

 

It's a long time since I looked at international finance, but as I understand it, due to the high yield on bonds it is increasingly unlikely that people will want to buy Greek bonds, meaning that borrowing becomes more and more expensive for Greece.

 

But I could be wrong, I would have to look up my old textbooks and I can't be bothered, the long and short of it is that it is becoming impossible for Greece to service its debt by issuing more debt, which is why they need the IMF and EU bail-outs.

[Chris_Sleeps]

It's a long time since I looked at international finance, but as I understand it, due to the high yield on bonds it is increasingly unlikely that people will want to buy Greek bonds, meaning that borrowing becomes more and more expensive for Greece.

Bonds are the debt that Greece already has. Their current ability to borrow is 0 - nada. They can't get a thing without begging for it. Hence the situation they are in.

[L00b]

Why do you want to deny the Greek people the same choices through democratic means?

Noone is denying the Greek people their choice to vote for austerity or financial oblivion.

 

What you seem to be in danger of advocating is, just like Syriza, to deny the EU and its Member States their own democratic choice of continuing to support Greece or turn the tap off. Greece does not have a right to be bailed out, regardless of whether the existence of such a right is alleged or misrepresented in a democratic instrument such as a referendum. Simple as.

 

Syriza have behaved with an utmost sense of entitlement at the expense of their creditors, that much is abundantly clear from their mounting rethoric of the past few days, if it wasn't already from the enduring wilful neglect of their public financial affairs. The reality check now comes a-knocking.

It really doesn't matter when the referendum is called. The deadline is an artificial one. The moon isn't going to fall from the sky if a payment is missed. One click of as button at ECB HQ will cover any shortfall.

Except that it won't, because the short-term tab is not merely that puny €1.6bn to the IMF.

 

The IMF missed payment deadline is not artificial at all, a payment deadline is a payment deadline. Granted, the missed payment to the IMF does amount to a default, but just places Greece in arrears. It also now cuts out the IMF as a funding source, however: the IMF cannot lend to any country in arrears. So, exit the IMF, for now and foreseeably.

 

The real defaulting deadlines are in July: beside the IMF June 30 deadline, Greece is also due to pay €6.6 billion to the ECB in July and €2 billion in Greek Treasury bills to private creditors that are due on July 10.

 

If Greece misses the GTB July 10 deadline, then Greece will be properly in default (instant junk+ in default rating by all agencies). So, exit the private creditor market at that time, and foreseeably.

 

Unlike the IMF deadline, these deadlines directly impact the continuation or prorogation of the ELA. No July payments, means no more ELA, nor any chance of even discussing it. Means Greece would be flat broke (as in, tumbleweeds in bank vaults, balance sheets and everywhere else, and noone gets paid: not public services employees, not public services suppliers, not pensioners <etc.>).

The reality too is that it will stay in the EU and the EU will help it recover. Wait and see. If it doesn't and punative action is taken then Gree e might look elsewhere, to Russia even.

 

Punitive action won't need to be taken at all (Greece has made enough of a baobab-sized rod for its own back) and I would expect the exit agreement after Greece files under Article 50 TEU to be generally 'benevolent'. But if it grexits, Greece will not stay in the EU, it simply cannot (did you read that Varoufakis blogpost I linked, by any chance?). Wait and see.

 

It would be a delicious irony to see Syriza hoisted by its own petard and forced to go against the democratic will of the people (who reportedly want to stay in the EZ and the EU..."you can't always get what you want" is a fundamental lesson of early childhood, that successive Greek governments have long forgotten, to the extent of making their own people forget about it too).

Edited July 1, 2015 by L00b

[geared]

The reality too is that it will stay in the EU and the EU will help it recover. Wait and see. If it doesn't and punative action is taken then Gree e might look elsewhere, to Russia even.

 

Why would Russia want to get involved??

 

Just because Greece has a far left party and Putin is an old school Soviet type??

 

---------- Post added 01-07-2015 at 10:16 ----------

 

Just a thought (or it may be happening anyway, I don't know).

 

Greece has long been an opponent of Turkey joining the EU. The EU in general have wanted an ever widening EU, and so in principle would like Turkey to join. (Although the current problems on Turkey's border with Syria and the whole "ISIL thing" may be giving EU expansionists cause for a rethink.)

 

So, how about the EU giving Greece a bit more breathing space to sort out its late payments in exchange for it removing its objection to Turkey joining the EU?

 

because the middle east is a currently a complete hell hole and the EU would very much like a buffer zone between us and that mess.

 

There's sod all chance of Turkey getting into the EU with the current ongoing terrorist insurgency.

 

Greece won't be the only voice opposing Turkey joining if it's brought up again, it will be everyone shouting

[L00b]

Why would Russia want to get involved?

To pee off Brussels (EU effectively abandoning the Greek portion of its sphere of influence to Russia).

 

Talk about a poisoned chalice, though...Putin would be welcome to it!

because the middle east is a currently a complete hell hole and the EU would very much like a buffer zone between us and that mess.

 

There's sod all chance of Turkey getting into the EU with the current ongoing terrorist insurgency.

 

Greece won't be the only voice opposing Turkey joining if it's brought up again, it will be everyone shouting

Agreed with all that, but generally speaking, chances of Turkey getting into the EU went 'poof!' the day pro-Islam & anti-secularist Erdogan gained power, and will remain so as long as his party remains in power (or remains a substantial opposition force after elections to come). To say nothing of the long-standing 'Kurdish question', that remains open to this day. They're not exactly a beacon of socio-economic health these days, either. Edited July 1, 2015 by L00b