Syriza to get majority in Greece.

[geared]

It looks like Tsipras's back is now breaking, he's pretty much caved in although he's stupidly now backed himself into a corner and the rest of the EU won't let him weasel out of it.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33345219

 

I'm not entirely sure a bailout is possible now, I can't see the Greek economy going 'back to normal' it will be carnage.

No-one is submitting their taxes, and everyone is going to work in cash.

 

I imagine there will be a run on the banks if they do open back up, and that will just push Greece back into the same situation.

 

A letter to creditors obtained by the Financial Times says Mr Tsipras is prepared to accept most conditions that were on the table before talks collapsed and he called a referendum.

 

On Tuesday, eurozone finance ministers refused to extend the previous bailout.

 

But Germany says a new agreement on a bailout would not be possible until after the referendum this weekend.

 

If Greece doesn't collapse now, it's surely only going to collapse later.

[L00b]

It looks like Tsipras's back is now breaking, he's pretty much caved in although he's stupidly now backed himself into a corner and the rest of the EU won't let him weasel out of it.

Syriza is predictably starting to implode:

BREAKING:

 

News that the Greek prime minister has finally accepted its creditors’ terms (albeit with a few conditions) has been met with fury on the left in Greece, reports Helena Smith:

Before Alexis Tsipras has even made his much anticipated address to the nation - explaining the details of the proposal - the country’s communist party has described the deal as “the worst bailout” ever.

 

“They are shamefully fooling the Greek people. This proves that their “no” is in fact a “yes” to new loan accords that go against the people,” the party’s leader Dimitris Koutsoumbas railed in a statement. “We will cancel all of this,” he said referring to Sunday’s referendum. We will say no to the memoranda [bailout accords] , yes to resistance.”

...and the fireworks display is off!!!

 

I read somewhere that they cannot cancel the referendum, for constitutional reasons. About that, here's an opinion piece about it from Reuters, which seems to agree with my earlier opinion about Tsipras' motivations for it, i.e. all to do with party politics and sod all to do with his constituents' best interests.

 

The Council of Europe isn't too happy about the Greek referendum either, it's not quite the democratic instrument it seems, as it falls well short of international standards in the matter:

The head of the Council of Europe, Europe’s top human rights institution, says Greece’s referendum would fall short of international standards if held as planned on Sunday.

 

Council of Europe Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland told The Associated Press that international standards recommend that a referendum be held with at least two weeks’ notice to allow sufficient time for discussion, with a clear question put to the people and with international observers monitoring the vote.

 

Greece’s referendum on whether to accept creditor demands in return for bailout funds was called Saturday, and there has been confusion as to whether the result of a “no” vote as the government recommends would lead the country out of the 19-nation eurozone.

 

The vote “has been called on such a short notice, that this in itself is a major problem,” Jagland said Wednesday by phone from Lisbon, Portugal. “And also the fact that the questions that are put to the people ... are not very clear.”[/Quote]Source is Associated Press.

It looks like Tsipras's back is now breaking, he's pretty much caved in although he's stupidly now backed himself into a corner and the rest of the EU won't let him weasel out of it.

You don't say:

German FinMin Schäuble: Present Greek Govt Not Very Trust-Worthy Party for New Bailout Talks.[/Quote]

Schaeuble shows his contempt by saying he's not even read the latest proposal from Tsipras[/Quote]

Schaueble rejects talks before Greek referendum [/Quote]

01-Jul-2015 11:20:27 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS MUST REMEMBER THAT WE HAVE ALREADY GIVEN GREECE A DEBT HAIRCUT

 

01-Jul-2015 11:21:38 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS GREEK INTEREST RATE BURDEN IS BELOW THAT OF GERMANY IN RELATIVE TERMS

 

01-Jul-2015 11:23:53 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS BEFORE SUNDAY’S GREEK REFERENDUM, THERE IS NO POINT TO HAVE TALKS

 

01-Jul-2015 11:25:06 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS I ALWAYS KEPT TO WHAT WE

AGREED, TO OUR RULES, IF EVERYONE HAD DONE THE SAME, GREECE WOULD NOT BE IN SUCH A DESPERATE SITUATION

 

01-Jul-2015 11:26:23 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS WE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN VERY FLEXIBLE BUT SITUATION HAS DETERIORATED

 

01-Jul-2015 11:26:56 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS I FEEL SORRY FOR GREEK PEOPLE

 

01-Jul-2015 11:29:18 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS I AM NOT GIVING ANY PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH GREECE, WE ARE OPEN TO ANYTHING

 

01-Jul-2015 11:30:08 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS WE DON’T KNOW IF WE WILL MANAGE TO GET AN ESM PROGRAMME READY BY JULY 20 PAYMENT DEADLINE

 

01-Jul-2015 11:31:05 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS ECONOMIC SITUATION IN GREECE IS GETTING WORSE[/Quote][/Quote]Tsipras and Varoufakis are currently riding the mother of all political learning curves, it seems.

Edited July 1, 2015 by L00b

[tzijlstra]

01-Jul-2015 11:21:38 - GERMANY’S SCHAEUBLE SAYS GREEK INTEREST RATE BURDEN IS BELOW THAT OF GERMANY IN RELATIVE TERMS

 

I wonder what that means? Is this because the agreed bail-out has protected Greece so effectively that Germany is now in a relatively worse position for paying of its debts than Greece?

 

If that is the case than that just demonstrates how much Germany (and the other rich Eurozone countries) have already sacrificed to try and save Greece from itself.

[geared]

I think what he means is that the majority of Greek debt is for it's bailout program.

 

The loans they received on that had very low interest rates, so relatively speaking Greece pays little interest on the money it has borrowed.

 

Unfortunately due to a completely inept Government they can't even pay that.

[tzijlstra]

I think what he means is that the majority of Greek debt is for it's bailout program.

 

The loans they received on that had very low interest rates, so relatively speaking Greece pays little interest on the money it has borrowed.

 

Unfortunately due to a completely inept Government they can't even pay that.

 

Yes, that is how I understand it. I didn't realise they paid less interest than the others due to the bailout, makes it all even more galling really.

[L00b]

In summary terms, Tsipras' "big" speech of a moment ago is demonising Europe and financial conservatism, advertising for the NO vote which he considers necessary for a better agreement (but which he believes doesn't mean rupture with Europe), and denying that there's a planned return to the drachma.

 

"Nonsensical panicky jibber-jabber" doesn't quite get the measure of this. More like going full Tony Montana-retard, lying to his constituents' face on national TV (Tsipras promised that "deposits will not be lost, pensions will not be lost", and appealed to the people to "open a bright new page of democracy, and certain hope for a better deal"). Generals might as well march in at this stage, they can't do any worse. Jaysus.

Edited July 1, 2015 by L00b

[tzijlstra]

It is the predictable clash of ideology versus pragmatism. Some people (Tsipras clearly one of them) believe that their ideology trumps practicality and pragmatism every time. This is the exact thing I warned for at the start of this thread.

[I1L2T3]

What a day.

 

Both sides have very publicly lost the plot

[L00b]

Both sides have very publicly lost the plot

What leads you to say that the EU/ECB has lost the plot?

 

You're not one of those people who thinks that the bondholders should be burned and the Troika should just write off some or all of the debt and loan afresh, are you?

 

Greece conned its way into the EZ, in the face of German opposition, which was misrepresented by Greek media at the time as Germany's lingering far-right tendencies. Greece paid its debts to private lenders consistently throughout the period from 1974 onwards, right up until 2012 when it got a 53.5% haircut, which couldn't have been negotiated without the Troika. There was no indication whatsoever that Greece was going to default on its debts.

 

The rest of the eurozone helped Greece when nobody else would, loaned Greece money on terms it couldn't have dreamed of getting from commercial lenders, used its clout to get Greece a €110 billion haircut on its debts, negotiated with Syriza for the better part of 5 months (even though Draghi & Co. could have legitimately kept to the 2012 deal and left it at that)...yet somehow the EU and the ECB are bad guys who are being mean to Greece?

 

I'm hoping that, come Monday, after a "Oxi" vote, Germany announces that they're having a referendum about whether they should accept Greece's proposal. With a month's notice, to fully respect normative democratic processes.

[geared]

Ha a lesson on democracy for the country claiming to be the birthplace of it.

 

I found this piece quite amusing:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33329624

 

It seems to echo sentiment you get from other bits in the news, the Greeks want to stay in the EuroZone as they have obviously benefited from the amount of money they have access to by being in.

 

They're less inclined to take the harsh measures needed to pay some of that money back though.

 

---------- Post added 05-07-2015 at 18:58 ----------

 

Early poll results are in, and the No vote has taken the lead.

Only 20% of the vote is in so far though, so could go either way.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33403665

 

With more than 20% of votes counted, results from the Greek referendum suggest voters have rejected the terms of an international bailout.

 

Results published by the interior ministry showed about 60% of those whose votes had been counted voting "No", against some 40% voting "Yes".

 

Greece's governing Syriza party campaigned for a "No", saying the bailout terms were humiliating.

 

The "Yes" campaign warned this could see Greece ejected from the eurozone.