Is S17 a safe seat?

[Dannyno]

A significant number of the population of the constituency are students. But the proportion of the student population who are actually registered to vote will be less significant (but could still make a difference in a close race, agreed).

[Guest sibon]

Are you sure you've got the right constituency? Sheffield Hallam has "only" 11,000 students whereas next door in Sheffield Central there's 36,000, Central has the biggest student population in the country if you want to see the student vote in action look there will make for a very interesting seat to watch given that half the population will have moved since the last election.

 

A significant number of the Hallam electorate will be parents of students. Their families will have incurred greater costs as a result of Clegg's u-turn.

 

This is going to be a very close race, make no mistake about that. Clegg's patchy record as a constituency MP won't help him either.

[libuse]

A significant number of the population of the constituency are students. But the proportion of the student population who are actually registered to vote will be less significant (but could still make a difference in a close race, agreed).

 

Yeh, but then there's the thing about the university registering on enrolment, which apparently is quite unusual; the poly don't do it, for example. Whether registration will turn into votes, who knows. Although in 2010 Sheffield Hallam constituency did make headlines due to the number of voters overwhelming the polling stations and being unable to vote, and apparently that included a high student count.

[Dannyno]

17% of the electorate of Hallam are students. It surprised me too. Maybe it's a per capita thing? Central may have more in numbers but not proportionately as many, at a guess, so won't have as big an impact on the overall vote. Source below;

 

http://may2015.com/featured/sheffield-hallam-labour-sways-students-but-can-the-greens-and-tories-save-clegg/

 

 

According to the 2011 census (figures vary a bit depending which measure you look at):

 

Sheffield Hallam:

all usual residents: 89356

population (Aged 16-74): 66181

population (aged 18+): 72508

students: 11555 (c12.9% of usual residents; c17.5% of 16-74 population; c15.9% of 18+ population)

 

Sheffield Central:

all usual residents: 115284

population (aged 16-74): 95289

population (aged 18+):98463

students: 36686 (c31.8% of usual residents; c38.5% of 16-74s; c37.3% of 18+ pop)

 

https://neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk

 

---------- Post added 15-04-2015 at 00:08 ----------

 

A significant number of the Hallam electorate will be parents of students. Their families will have incurred greater costs as a result of Clegg's u-turn.

 

If you're talking about the 9K course fees, no they haven't.

Edited April 15, 2015 by Dannyno

[libuse]

According to the 2011 census (figures vary a bit depending which measure you look at):

 

Sheffield Hallam:

all usual residents: 89356

population (Aged 16-74): 66181

population (aged 18+)

students: 11555 (c12.9% of usual residents; c17.5% of 16-74 population; c11.7% of 18+ population)

 

Sheffield Central:

all usual residents: 115284

population (aged 16-74): 95289

population (aged 18+):98463

students: 36686 (c31.8% of usual residents; c38.5% of 16-74s; c37.3% of 18+ pop)

 

https://neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk.

 

I guess there may have been a change in demographic in the last few years (or, the NS article is referring to registered voters, which would make sense in terms of how the university automatically registers enrolled students and the other higher education institutions in the city apparently don't)

[Mr Bloom]

As opposed to Labour, you mean, a Party hardly more well-disposed towards the moneyed; itself based on visceral class antagonism and suffusing envy?

 

I don't think it's about envy at all. I think it's about doing what is morally right. There are people in the country who are far better off than anyone living in Sheffield that still vote Labour.

 

There are people I know who would have loved to have got their hands on some of the royal mail shares that ended up in the hands of big business within hours. They are seeing the clear picture of the Tory and Lib Dem game now.

[Guest sibon]

 

If you're talking about the 9K course fees, no they haven't.

 

They have.

 

That is self-evident.

[Dannyno]

Yeh, but then there's the thing about the university registering on enrolment, which apparently is quite unusual; the poly don't do it, for example. Whether registration will turn into votes, who knows. Although in 2010 Sheffield Hallam constituency did make headlines due to the number of voters overwhelming the polling stations and being unable to vote, and apparently that included a high student count.

 

Yes, I remember the polling station issue, although that may have been more to do with lots of students all turning up at the last minute.

 

The Sheffield University enrolment project (it's been an experimental pilot, it seems, and as far as I can tell they did it by adapting their enrolment system. However, other universities, like Hallam, seem to use different systems which they can't adapt so easily - maybe there needs to be a national approach there).

 

However, accroding to http://appg-students.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Individual-Electoral-Registration-getting-students-registered.pdf, although 63 per cent of Uni students filled in the registration forms, only 22% of students were actually able to complete the registration process (didn't have their NI numbers). That was December, it's probably improved since then.

 

So when it comes to actual votes, what do we expect?

 

I'm making this up now, but... Of those c11500 Hallam constituency students, less than a quarter may actually be registered (less than 2900). And of that quarter, how many will actually vote? Do we think it will be higher or lower than non-students? Shall we say maybe 60% of them? I think that's optimistic, but hey. So in the unlikely event that my speculation is anywhere near right, you're talking about a student active electorate of about 1700. So that's a big block, but it's not as dramatic as the original numbers might make you think.

 

There are other points to take into account.

 

Hallam Uni have done a registration campaign too, but not electronic. So their registration rate must be quite a lot lower (I haven't found a figure yet). This would bring down the Sheffield average.

 

The Uni may have improved their registration rate since December.

 

Some students will already be registered to vote in Sheffield, because they're local.

 

Others may or may not register here, but may choose to vote at home if they're not from Sheffield (you can be registered twice, but of course it's illegal to vote twice in general elections).

 

This survey of 994 students http://www.youthsight.com/media-centre/announcements/student-voter-registration-and-party-preference-february-2015/ found that 78% of students were registered to vote (were they sure?!), but that only 40% will vote in their University town (this includes students where their university town is also their home town). It is suggested there that 10,000 students will be registered to vote in Sheffield, but they are assuming that 78% of Sheffield students will be enrolled, and that seems too high.

 

I wonder if the actual enrolment stats for students are or will be released anywhere?

 

---------- Post added 15-04-2015 at 00:48 ----------

 

They have.

 

That is self-evident.

 

No they haven't. And it's not self-evident at all.

 

Are we talking about the same thing?

 

Clearly tuition fees have risen, with most unis charging 9K.

 

But this has not led to students' families "incurring greater costs" at all. The 9K tuition fees are not paid up front, and not paid by the student's family/parents. The student themselves pays those fees, and they don't pay anything at all until they've graduated. And then they still don't pay anything until their salary reaches £21K a year.

 

That's why I think you were wrong to say that students' families are incurring "greater costs", if you were talking about the 9K tuition fees. They're not incurring any tuition fee costs whatsoever.

 

This doesn't mean I think fees are a good thing.

[libuse]

Yes, I remember the polling station issue, although that may have been more to do with lots of students all turning up at the last minute.

 

The Sheffield University enrolment project (it's been an experimental pilot, it seems, and as far as I can tell they did it by adapting their enrolment system. However, other universities, like Hallam, seem to use different systems which they can't adapt so easily - maybe there needs to be a national approach there).

 

However, accroding to http://appg-students.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Individual-Electoral-Registration-getting-students-registered.pdf, although 63 per cent of Uni students filled in the registration forms, only 22% of students were actually able to complete the registration process (didn't have their NI numbers). That was December, it's probably improved since then.

 

So when it comes to actual votes, what do we expect?

 

I'm making this up now, but... Of those c11500 Hallam constituency students, less than a quarter may actually be registered (less than 2900). And of that quarter, how many will actually vote? Do we think it will be higher or lower than non-students? Shall we say maybe 60% of them? I think that's optimistic, but hey. So in the unlikely event that my speculation is anywhere near right, you're talking about a student active electorate of about 1700. So that's a big block, but it's not as dramatic as the original numbers might make you think.

 

There are other points to take into account.

 

Hallam Uni have done a registration campaign too, but not electronic. So their registration rate must be quite a lot lower (I haven't found a figure yet). This would bring down the Sheffield average.

 

The Uni may have improved their registration rate since December.

 

Some students will already be registered to vote in Sheffield, because they're local.

 

Others may or may not register here, but may choose to vote at home if they're not from Sheffield (you can be registered twice, but of course it's illegal to vote twice in general elections).

 

This survey of 994 students http://www.youthsight.com/media-centre/announcements/student-voter-registration-and-party-preference-february-2015/ found that 78% of students were registered to vote (were they sure?!), but that only 40% will vote in their University town (this includes students where their university town is also their home town). It is suggested there that 10,000 students will be registered to vote in Sheffield, but they are assuming that 78% of Sheffield students will be enrolled, and that seems too high.

 

I wonder if the actual enrolment stats for students are or will be released anywhere?

 

That's a really thoughtful analysis, however, it sort of denigrates the student vote, which therefore brings me back to my original question; why, in a very wealthy area, are Labour coming second/first? The students were my only answer. If not them, then what? How aren't the Tories doing well in a constituency they should really be walking?

[Dannyno]

I guess there may have been a change in demographic in the last few years (or, the NS article is referring to registered voters, which would make sense in terms of how the university automatically registers enrolled students and the other higher education institutions in the city apparently don't)

 

It's a bit misleading to say that the Uni is "automatically" registering voters. That would lead to 100% registration, and the published figures are significantly lower than that.

 

I wish the NS had told us what their statistical source was.

 

According to https://www.sheffield.gov.uk/your-city-council/elections/election-results/2010/general-election-2010.html#hallam, in 2010 the electorates were:

 

Sheffield Hallam: 68798

Sheffield Central: 67554

 

---------- Post added 15-04-2015 at 01:36 ----------

 

That's a really thoughtful analysis, however, it sort of denigrates the student vote, which therefore brings me back to my original question; why, in a very wealthy area, are Labour coming second/first? The students were my only answer. If not them, then what? How aren't the Tories doing well in a constituency they should really be walking?

 

 

I'm puncturing the overstatement of the student vote, which will be nowhere near as huge as some of the numbers being bandied about (I'm pretty sure the high turnout in the seat last time was attributable to students). But it's still a lot of people.

 

I can see why you'd attribute they poll figures to a student bloc - why isn't it swinging back to the Tories?

 

If you look at the Ashcroft polls, there is nearly a 20% swing to Labour at the moment.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Competitive-Lib-Dem-seats-March-2015ABXZ.pdf

 

Notice a couple of points: they're not asking how likely people are to vote, or whether they are registered at all.

 

Secondly, UKIP are getting a larger share of the vote, but not huge.

 

The interesting table to look at is the one about who you definitely wouldn't vote for.

 

UKIP voters seem set against Labour and the LibDems, but over half would consider the Tories. On the other hand, The Tory voters mainly rule out UKIP and Labour, but about half would consider voting LibDem.

 

The Labour vote seems solid. Over 92% would never vote UKIP, over 80% would never vote Tory, and over 70% would never vote LibDem. So they probably aren't going to leak voters much to the other parties.

 

But then look at the LibDems. Very squashy. Half would consider the Tories, only 66% would rule out Labour. Over 90% wouldn't ever vote UKIP.

 

So that seems to mean that UKIP are mainly getting their voters from the Tories.

 

So you've got a squashy LibDem vote, a firm Labour vote, UKIP nicking a few Tories, and a bunch of irritated students.

 

There were some boundary changes last time as well, weren't there?