How did the polls call the election so wrong?

[Mister M]

Someone told me that it was because Labour voters are all on benefits and can't be bothered to get out of bed to vote.

 

And I bet you believed them

[Guest sibon]

Someone told me that it was because Labour voters are all on benefits and can't be bothered to get out of bed to vote.

 

Did you get out of bed to check?

 

Tory voters are clearly a bunch of feckless liars.

[evil woman]

Did you get out of bed to check?

 

Tory voters are clearly a bunch of feckless liars.

 

But they win.

[-Boomer-]

Dunno, but I called it right

[RonJeremy]

Dunno, but I called it right

 

And well done to you mecky. I don't think the Tories could have won without people like you. Thank you so much.

[-Boomer-]

And well done to you mecky. I don't think the Tories could have won without people like you. Thank you so much.

 

Whatever ...

[Eric Arthur]

Labour Party support alway drops significantly in the last couple of weeks as people start to get a sense of it means. Labour Central Office actually plan for it.

 

This has happened in all but one general election since the war. < That is the Second World War, not the Labour Party's Iraq / Afghanistan War for all you youngsters.

[evil woman]

Labour Party support alway drops significantly in the last couple of weeks as people start to get a sense of it means. Labour Central Office actually plan for it.

 

This has happened in all but one general election since the war. < That is the Second World War, not the Labour Party's Iraq / Afghanistan War for all you youngsters.

 

It is one hell of a swing. If you take Scotland out of the equation. In the whole of England and Wales the Tories took around 25% more votes than Labour. This in an election where UKIP is reconned to have taken a couple of million votes from the Tories.

[ubermaus]

On the run up to the election Labour and Conservatives were neck and neck in the polls. The SNP were strong but no one could imagine that they would take 46 seats.

When the exit poll came out no one believed it. But in the ballot the Tories took 21% more votes than Labour. How did the polls call it so so wrong?

 

The conservatives spent 10 times as much on marketing as have more doners.

[I1L2T3]

Very different dynamics we haven't seen all combined in a general election before:

1. A junior coalition partner that had broken many of its pre-election promises, some quite significant causing the electorate to turn away from them.

2. UKIP posing a credible threat. The 4 million votes it got show this threat was real.

3. A powerful and unprecedented Scottish nationalist/protest vote

4. New laws muting a wide variety of interest groups, charities etc.. during the election campaign

 

Add to that a poor Labour leadership and a more slick than usual Tory campaign and it seems unlikely that the usual polling models would have been able to cope.

 

It was only when the BBC exit poll was done that we got a true picture. The problem is that none of the traditional pollsters are going to sample 22,000 people every week or so - the cost is prohibitive. Not sure where that leaves things. Do we really need the polls.

 

One thing that needs to change is the role of the media. The Sun, the Mirror etc... were allowed to spout whatever crap and lies they wanted every day of the week during the campaign but interest groups and charities could not say a word about legitimate concerns with party policies. That is very, very wrong.

Edited May 9, 2015 by I1L2T3