How did the polls call the election so wrong?

[Guest sibon]

Without looking up the details

 

Ah. I see. It is all becoming clearer now. You don't want to sully your mind with all of those tiresome numbers.

 

... didn't nearly all of the polls have Labour and Conservative roughly neck and neck?

 

They did at 33/34% +/- 3%. That is what happened.

 

Didn't the Tories win about 100 more seats (320 to 220 or thereabouts). It's a while since I did stats but isn't that more than 3%?

 

You should go and campaign for PR.

[DrNorm]

If I was to pay money for an opinion poll which one would you recommend? Which one came closest to getting it right?

 

---------- Post added 11-05-2015 at 23:42 ----------

 

Why pay attention to polls?

 

"If you want to know who will win the election, ask a gambler"

 

"Betting markets are more reliable than polls at predicting the outcome of a national vote"

 

---------- Post added 12-05-2015 at 00:03 ----------

 

Ah. I see. It is all becoming clearer now. You don't want to sully your mind with all of those tiresome numbers

 

OK it was 331 Conservative, 232 Labour. I wasn't so far out. Your comments strike me as an attempt to play the man rather than the ball. If I was a footballer I'd definitely be taking a dive to the floor at this point and looking for a penalty.

 

---------- Post added 12-05-2015 at 00:09 ----------

 

They did at 33/34% +/- 3%. That is what happened.

 

So the Conservatives might win by 100 seats, on the other hand, Labour might win by 100 seats. Isn't that the same as saying "I haven't got a clue?"

 

---------- Post added 12-05-2015 at 23:37 ----------

 

So I guess the answer to the question "How did the polls call the election so wrong?" is that they employed statisticians.

 

How often do we trust "experts" to get things so wrong on our behalf?

 

The article I linked to yesterday contains this observation that "the collective wisdom of many people is greater than the conclusions of a few".

 

I'm a fan of "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki. Collectively we're smarter than any expert (although individually we may mislead ourselves just as effectively!)

Edited May 12, 2015 by Jeffrey Shaw
Masked swearing snipped