EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[Eric Arthur]

So we should have risked a situation like Canada's where all cod fishing would have banned indefinitely so protect the fish from extinction? How would've that gone down in Grimsby?

 

The need for Soviet submarine detection killed Grimsby, not fish stocks. We're dangerously close to Corbynomics here.

[I1L2T3]

The need for Soviet submarine detection killed Grimsby, not fish stocks.

 

Very true. It was the concession Iceland demanded for use of their territory for submarine tracking.

[MikeFrank]

I don't think anyone has suggested that all trade between the UK and the EU was going to stop as a result of a Brexit.

 

Some trade would be lost both ways, surely no-one is going to disagree with that.

 

The real issue is how much value (to the UK) would be lost, once the UK is on the outside, in direct competition with the US, the BRICs and all the others, to supply commodity goods and services to EU member states.

 

All of the trade could well be retained, but what good if it comes at the price of a 26% profit loss (to use my earlier example).

 

I will... what business will not trade because we are not in the EU?

[GLASGOWOODS]

So we should have risked a situation like Canada's, where all cod fishing would have banned indefinitely to protect the fish from extinction? How would've that gone down in Grimsby?

 

It's probably this that destroyed the Scottish fishing industry.

 

Source..Debating Europe.

 

Quota hopping within the EU enables big commercial fisheries from countries like Spain and Denmark to grab the others stocks. The quota system favours big industrial trawlers while penalizing small, sustainable inshore fishing communities who are denied quotas.

[JFKvsNixon]

The need for Soviet submarine detection killed Grimsby, not fish stocks. We're dangerously close to Corbynomics here.

 

I agree that the Cod-war left our fishermen at a disadvantage, but they still have more opportunities than the east coast Canadian cod fisherman who were left to their own devices, and destroyed their own industry.

[Quik]

Nope, it isn't impossible. I know of studies into the impact of the possible post-Brexit models.

 

The analysis exists. All the 'leave' campaigns have to start referencing the studies that already exist, and start explaining which models they support, why, and how we will be impacted.

 

It is totally possible for that to happen.

 

Individuals are free to share their views on the various suggested brexit methods.

 

However the leave campaign is just that, a campaign to leave, it's not campaigning to leave and adopt a specific course of action after leaving for obvious reasons.

[tzijlstra]

The UK's seat at the WTO is vacant because we're in the EU. So to suggest that we still 'have' that seat is rather misleading.

 

As misleading as the WTO itself?

 

The 'reform deal' has not been ratified by the EU parliament and is therefore worthless. They're not going to vote on it before the referendum. Assume that it doesn't exist.

 

Wait? The Parliament? Isn't that what we vote on MEPs for? Oh heck yes! It is!

The suggestion that we'd still be subject to EU law outside it is rather preposterous. We'd be affected by it. As is everybody else in the world. That's a completely different thing.

We'd be affected by it and couldn't do diddly-squat to influence it. How is what I said preposterous again?

All the UK's opt-outs have historically shown themselves to be temporary. We were even on the verge of joining the Euro before its latest crisis.

 

In the long term the Pound is going to be tied up to either the Euro or the USD, we live in a global economy and the UK won't be able to justify being subject to major fluctuations in currency, especially not when 'independent'.

 

In international relations a country's influence is determined primarily by its economic might. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world, and could be influential. EU policy is determined by qualified majority voting, so whilst the EU may be more influential than an independent UK, the UK has minimal influence on the EU. There's nothing to stop us acting collectively with the EU when we have common interests. But outside we have the option of acting independently when that is in our best interests.

 

This is true, nothing to argue against that. Except that the UK in the EU is part of the biggest economy in the world, and outside of the EU it isn't. I don't often hear the Brexit camp say that by the way, I wonder why, especially as claiming to be the fifth economy is rather insignificant when that fifth economy turns out to be around 1/6th of the largest economy (then the US) and, when leaving the EU, about 1/5,5th of the EU. Who are the UKs biggest trading partners again?

 

Using the 'We are fifth!!!' slogan is about as useful as saying it is great Man United finished fifth, hey, at least they qualified for the Europa League...

 

---------- Post added 22-02-2016 at 21:57 ----------

 

It's probably this that destroyed the Scottish fishing industry.

 

Source..Debating Europe.

 

Quota hopping within the EU enables big commercial fisheries from countries like Spain and Denmark to grab the others stocks. The quota system favours big industrial trawlers while penalizing small, sustainable inshore fishing communities who are denied quotas.

 

Excellent! So how is leaving the EU going to fix that for the fishermen? They still won't be able to compete.

[GLASGOWOODS]

As misleading as the WTO itself?

 

 

 

Wait? The Parliament? Isn't that what we vote on MEPs for? Oh heck yes! It is!

 

We'd be affected by it and couldn't do diddly-squat to influence it. How is what I said preposterous again?

 

 

In the long term the Pound is going to be tied up to either the Euro or the USD, we live in a global economy and the UK won't be able to justify being subject to major fluctuations in currency, especially not when 'independent'.

 

 

 

This is true, nothing to argue against that. Except that the UK in the EU is part of the biggest economy in the world, and outside of the EU it isn't. I don't often hear the Brexit camp say that by the way, I wonder why, especially as claiming to be the fifth economy is rather insignificant when that fifth economy turns out to be around 1/6th of the largest economy (then the US) and, when leaving the EU, about 1/5,5th of the EU. Who are the UKs biggest trading partners again?

 

Using the 'We are fifth!!!' slogan is about as useful as saying it is great Man United finished fifth, hey, at least they qualified for the Europa League...

 

---------- Post added 22-02-2016 at 21:57 ----------

 

 

Excellent! So how is leaving the EU going to fix that for the fishermen? They still won't be able to compete.

 

I merely stated how Scottish fishing industry was destroyed by the meddling idiots in Europe. Coming out of Europe isn't going to save it, too late for that.

[L00b]

I will... what business will not trade because we are not in the EU?

All those businesses who come to face non-EU import taxes on UK purchases (BInding Tariff Information, standard EU tariff classification & rules that apply to EEA countries, such as Brexit poster-boy Norway), instead of reclaimable (& frequently uncharged) VAT as they are used to now, and decide that, € for € and import duty for import duty, might as well buy the same commodity product or service from another EU member state without the faffing and associated overheads. Or from another, cheaper, non-EU member state.

 

Quite ironically (deliciously so), UK IP service providers like us will probably lose a sizeable chunk of Europe-bound US patent work to the German competition, since most US client still associate European patents with 'EU', despite the paradoxical fact that European patents have sod all to do with the EU, other than sharing the adjective 'European'.

 

Not a biggy, since we'll be busy (and profitable) enough sorting the mess that will be UK rights severed from EU trademarks and designs...but quite a shame as that will draw the cream of the UK profession to Munich still further, since EP work is the cream of the crop. And the most profitable.

 

Brexit could be a good thing in that respect, in that it could push us to set up and run an EU office at last, so we don't lose that work. Naturally, it would be setup in Luxemburg, for tax efficiency and profile raising

 

See, I'm really not bothered which way this referendum goes: there are opportunities either side

Edited February 22, 2016 by L00b

[foxy lady]

Nope, it isn't impossible. I know of studies into the impact of the possible post-Brexit models.

 

The analysis exists. All the 'leave' campaigns have to start referencing the studies that already exist, and start explaining which models they support, why, and how we will be impacted.

 

It is totally possible for that to happen.

 

So how much faith do you have in Cameron?

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/21/eu-referendum-majority-leave-opinium-observer-poll

 

British people would vote to leave the European Union by a large margin under the current terms of membership, according to a new Opinium/Observer poll.

 

But David Cameron could turn public opinion round and keep the UK in the EU if he is able to negotiate new and improved terms of membership, the survey suggests.

 

Opinium found a total of 48% would definitely or probably vote to leave under present rules, while 37% said they would definitely or probably vote to stay in.

 

However the poll suggests the tide could be turned if David Cameron, who has promised to hold an in/out referendum by the end of 2017 if the Conservatives win the next election, does manage to secure a favourable renegotiation of terms.

 

In that event, 42% say they would either definitely or probably vote to stay in, against 36% who would probably or definitely vote to leave. There is widespread scepticism, however, over Cameron's ability to achieve a satisfactory renegotiation. Only 18% (including 34% of Conservatives) think he will win the necessary concessions.

It seems your beloved Guardian had everything riding on what Cameron could deliver in terms of getting a better deal in Europe. So there's the dilema for you. Did he do a good enough job to turn our heads or should we just say he wasted his time and vote for exit?